Tropical Storm Alberto

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Thunder44
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#1661 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:41 pm

A Flight Met on TWC just said that when he was out on the plane eariler there were 70kt winds at the surface not more than 20 or 30 miles NW from center.
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#1662 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:42 pm

Yeah the center is becoming exposed...I think its weaken to 55 knots...In most likely be around 50 knots at landfall.
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#1663 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:42 pm

Hey Thunder44, did you see it to? I am confused over this report...he stated 74 knots flight level and 70 knots surface...
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#1664 Postby AZS » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:43 pm

Noles2006 wrote:Matt -- what other factors will become more favorable before landfall? The water temps are getting cooler and the water itself is become much more shallow as the system approaches land. It's out of time to strengthen, IMO. I've seen this many-a-times with systems approaching the big bend and it seems they always weaken before making landfall...


Remember Vince ?
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#1665 Postby Noles2006 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:44 pm

Okay, I see what you're saying about the rest of the season. That loop current is scary! It was amazing to watch sickly Alberto blow up into a decent storm overnight!
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#1666 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:44 pm

Thunder44 wrote:A Flight Met on TWC just said that when he was out on the plane eariler there were 70kt winds at the surface not more than 20 or 30 miles NW from center.


Thats possible as some of those thunderstorms began collapsing you can get a downburst affect muchl ike you get when svr storms collapse over the plains.

With the center being open and the system weakening like it has i'd be surprised if the next update had this thing at hurricane force.
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#1667 Postby Droop12 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:44 pm

Im thinking despite all the bad things occuring to Alberto tonight, he'll blow up some more convection near the center tonight. Reminds me off TS Barry I believe in 2001.
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#1668 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:44 pm

Alberto is being cut in 2 from west to east. Highly sheared system will likely make landfall. I am just having trouble seeing otherwise.
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#1669 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:45 pm

Yeah at least no one can now say that it did not deserve its name. Wait intill shear and dry air is not there. You will see some big ones.
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#1670 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:45 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Hey Thunder44, did you see it to? I am confused over this report...he stated 74 knots flight level and 70 knots surface...


Maybe he was looking at the waves.
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#1671 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:48 pm

I wouldn't be too totally suprised if this thing moves more easterly than northeast.
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#1672 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:48 pm

The dry air always finds a way into Alberto's center of circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg
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#1673 Postby Noles2006 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:49 pm

Definitely deserved it's name and at least took it's name out of the competition for "ugliest TS ever".
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#1674 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:50 pm

Be back on tomarrow...
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#1675 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:51 pm

Well there went my theory about the LLC moving more northward as far as this other buoy was concerned, :lol: That is a massive drop.



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036
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#1676 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:52 pm

Definitly, but it could win honorable mention at this point it looks really bad at this point.
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#1677 Postby stormtruth » Mon Jun 12, 2006 3:56 pm

Lots of tropical storms look silly. They aren't organized enough to become hurricanes.
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#1678 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 4:06 pm

Here's a new GARP satellite image with sfc obs. Max I've seen with the buoys is still 35 kts. Looks almost like a cold front extending SW from Alberto. Note the NE winds well SW of the storm. No inflow.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto35.gif

Closer up:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto34.gif
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#1679 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 4:14 pm

Thunderstorms are moving away from the center again. The center is exposed and looks more like a gale center.
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#1680 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jun 12, 2006 4:20 pm

I have a feeling that this will be downgraded from 70mph before landfall.
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