Tropical Storm Chris

[clfenwi]

you know you're not getting something that specific out of me yet

Personally, I think if it follows the GDFL, it won't be a USA threat at all, but we'll just have to wait and see. Hopefully the ridge will continue to build in strong.

Did you read any of this, CZ? The GFDL, along with many other models continue to initailize this wrong...Last night the GFS initailized it in the Bahamas

The initialization problems are intensity related, not position.

The 06Z GFDL run had it correctly placed at initialization, but slightly understrength... though much better than anything else out there:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=000hr

The GFS had it positioned right, but didn't have a closed isobar around it until the 06Z run
00Z:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=000hr

06Z:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=000hr

[x-y-no]

GHCC sattelite server is getting real slow ... oh for the good old days when only a few people knew about it.

Very true I only have about 2 other sites and I KEEP them to myself now!!!

Give!


I like RAMSDIS a lot - very nice image quality and I like their IR color scheme - but the trouble is they only update every half hour. GHCC is much more frequent once you get to the close-in 1km resolution view.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The ULL out to the NW of Chris is having an effect on the track as is the intensity, depite what any model is depicting. Models don't have real time data streaming or anything. Besides the GFS has NEVER overdone a ridge before now has it

[curtadams]

OK, dumb question ...
Someone brought up annular so I went and read the Wikipedia article on it and it mentions Epsilon last season. I thought annular hurricanes were typically limited to strong storms? Is it possible for a hurricane to be annular in less intense phases?

Reverse the causality. Annular hurricanes form not because they're strong but because they have virtually perfect atmospheric conditions. The perfect atmospheric conditions also make them strong for their water temps. Epsilon had those near-perfect atmospheric conditions and became annular. It also became about as strong as a hurricane could be over that chilly water, which was Cat 1. Normally annular hurricanes are strong not exactly because they're annular but because the annular-inducing conditions allow them to approach maximum strength for their waters, which is almost always a major hurricane anywhere hurricanes form in the first place. Epsilon formed over quite chilly water that until last year was not expected to form tropical storms much, if ever.

[LightningInTheEye]

FloridaDiver wrote:
Although Chris warrants attention at this time, after reading forecasts and reviewing the overall weather patterns projected by the models, I’m still not convinced that Chris will be a direct hit (Dade/Broward/Palm Beach) for South Florida, I’m thinking more of a Rita-like path from last year, unfortunately closer to the Key’s this time around. I’m afraid my scuba friends down in the Conch Republic will be in evacuation mode yet again by this coming weekend.

"The gfs takes Chris or whatever is left of chris into south florida. 06Z
Nogaps takes chris into south florida also. 00Z"-SouthFloridawx

Since yesterday, most of the computer models have shifted north. I remember yesterday when the forecast path called for Chris to skirt northern Cuba, now it is skirting the Keys...that is a shift of about 100 miles. Unlike Rita, Chris has developed further west, giving more uncertainty to the forecast track.

The ULL to the east of FLA has temporarily weakened the ridge...the next 24 hours will be very critical since this may be the only opportunity for Chris to gain some latitude...after this, the ridge will stabilize taking Chris more WNW (290 degrees) instead of its current intermittent NW wobbles. Chris's position (especially it's lattitude) after these next 24 hours transpire will be critical in determining what if any effect Florida will feel.

[wxmann_91]

GHCC sattelite server is getting real slow ... oh for the good old days when only a few people knew about it.

I thought it was just my Internet.

By 2010 if this active period continues all the hurricane-related sites will have to upgrade their servers to accomondate 10 times the amount of users today.

[Stephanie]

The high pressure that's bringing the heat wave to the East and Midwest is supposed to move offshore by Friday. Wouldn't this affect the steering of the storm?

[HouTXmetro]

The high pressure that's bringing the heat wave to the East and Midwest is supposed to move offshore by Friday. Wouldn't this affect the steering of the storm?

Not sure, maybe our weakness will come alot sooner. WHo knows?

[miamicanes177]

Raw T3.9...close to hurricane strength.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The high pressure that's bringing the heat wave to the East and Midwest is supposed to move offshore by Friday. Wouldn't this affect the steering of the storm?

Not sure, maybe our weakness will come alot sooner. WHo knows?

Jeff Master's said it could move a bit north when that happens, but another ridge moving in behind it should make the storm move WNW again after that.

[brunota2003]

The high pressure that's bringing the heat wave to the East and Midwest is supposed to move offshore by Friday. Wouldn't this affect the steering of the storm?

doesnt that have to do with the trough moving in? I have read that it is suppose to build back in also...

[gerrit]

I thought it was just my Internet.

You got your own internet?

[canegrl04]

One thing we've learned from the past two seasons is never say never.I wouldn't rule out Chris becoming a cat 4 or 5 once inside the GOM.In those warm waters they can really crank it up fast

[Blown Away]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

The bully high is just swatting that ULL rate out of the way to the West. The rate that high is moving in you can almost can see what the GFDL is saying pushing Chris W or even SW, it won't be long before Chris starts to respond. Just an amateur observation.

[stormtruth]

I thought it was just my Internet.

You got your own internet?

Dang. I'm so jealous.

[Rainband]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

The bully high is just swatting that ULL rate out of the way to the West. The rate that high is moving in you can almost can see what the GFDL is saying pushing Chris W or even SW, it won't be long before Chris starts to respond. Just an amateur observation.

Good observation. I see what you are saying.

[flhurricaneguy]

i will believe it when i see it.

[MiamiensisWx]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

The bully high is just swatting that ULL rate out of the way to the West. The rate that high is moving in you can almost can see what the GFDL is saying pushing Chris W or even SW, it won't be long before Chris starts to respond. Just an amateur observation.

With the ULL weakening slowly and moving a bit faster west-southwestward, and with the ULL much more shallow now (less shearing influence due to this), this could help to decrease the shear in front of Chris and provide favorable divergence for intensification as the two ridges merge to the north of Chris. Where Chris will be positioned when the ULL moves into the east-central Gulf will be a big key on how the ridging/steering/path of Chris will shape up.

Loop

As a side note, banding features are responding by getting better organized. Chris is slowly intensifying.

[curtadams]

The 06Z GFS is at least off the drugs, with Chris initialized as a respectable storm. The track is reasonable and verifying - NW now, turning west early tomorrow, crossing the Bahamas, grazing S Fl, and heading out into the gulf. However, it has Chris weakening steadily to a remnant low and I don't see any reason for that. Shear is projected to be moderate-to-low and water temps warm to hot. I don't know how to extract humidities and airtemps from the GFS but I wouldn't expect either to be nasty over the forecast track.

[Stephanie]

The high pressure that's bringing the heat wave to the East and Midwest is supposed to move offshore by Friday. Wouldn't this affect the steering of the storm?

Not sure, maybe our weakness will come alot sooner. WHo knows?

Jeff Master's said it could move a bit north when that happens, but another ridge moving in behind it should make the storm move WNW again after that.

Timing is everything then as usual.

Brunota - the front is moving through and pushing the high pressure out.

I guess we'll need to see how strong this new high pressure is.

Thanks for the replies!