Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Thunder44]

[Scorpion]

I'm sorry but a hurricane doesn't go from 990 to 1007 mb in a reorganization stage. Something is at hand, and this is mid-level shear. It could relax, even so, the chances of it surviving Cuba are now low.

[Bgator]

There is a small convection burst right near the though of center, this may mean that shear is weakening, adn it is puling away from land.....

[jusforsean]

I need a swift hit in the head i feel like i am on a rollercoaster ride with this one! I think by the morning we will know for sure, i dont think the fat lasy is singing just yet wake me up when we know for sure!

[Scott_inVA]

Not a big surprise, but the automated portion of my tracking has dropped this to a TS...this would be the indication with the 5PM F/A.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[gatorcane]

Let me ask, anybody think it may miss the US completely and go east of Florida???

[JtSmarts]

That would be wonderful, however wouldn't the ridge block it from going too far to the east?

[Innotech]

Let me ask, anybody think it may miss the US completely and go east of Florida???

I think it will hit the US at osme point, but 2 things could happen I believe...
1. The scenario I described before, where it misses the ridge and heads towards Eastern Florida coast(if the ridge continues west) or 2. It remains weak and caught in the shallow steering flows and heads towards the southern Cuban coast and follows the ridge around.

But right now its still so disorganized and cluttered that I dont htink anyone really has a handle on it currently.

[craptacular]

001
SXXX50 KNHC 271845
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 25 KNHC
1829. 1615N 07528W 03052 0150 263 011 096 044 012 03249 0000000000
1830 1616N 07526W 03047 0150 261 011 100 044 012 03244 0000000000
1830. 1617N 07524W 03046 0148 256 011 100 042 012 03240 0000000000
1831 1619N 07522W 03047 0147 251 012 100 040 012 03241 0000000000
1831. 1620N 07521W 03049 0146 250 012 100 038 013 03242 0000000000
1832 1621N 07519W 03048 0146 259 012 100 032 012 03240 0000000000
1832. 1622N 07518W 03048 0146 265 012 100 030 013 03241 0000000000
1833 1623N 07516W 03048 0145 260 013 100 040 013 03240 0000000000
1833. 1624N 07514W 03043 0146 275 012 096 066 012 03235 0000000000
1834 1625N 07512W 03044 0147 268 014 092 088 015 03238 0000000000
1834. 1627N 07511W 03049 0145 260 018 094 086 018 03241 0000000000
1835 1628N 07509W 03047 0146 251 016 096 066 017 03240 0000000000
1835. 1630N 07509W 03048 0144 248 015 096 064 015 03239 0000000000
1836 1632N 07508W 03056 0142 246 015 098 056 015 03245 0000000000
1836. 1634N 07507W 03048 0141 243 014 092 080 014 03235 0000000000
1837 1635N 07506W 03048 0139 248 013 098 076 013 03234 0000000000
1837. 1637N 07505W 03047 0140 269 012 096 072 013 03234 0000000000
1838 1638N 07503W 03048 0139 256 010 100 058 012 03235 0000000000
1838. 1640N 07502W 03048 0141 270 010 098 044 010 03236 0000000000
1839 1641N 07500W 03048 0141 256 010 096 054 012 03236 0000000000
;

Heading back in to the center.

[krisj]

So I'm confused. Ernesto is now downgraded to a TS?

[Thunder44]

[JtSmarts]

Not officially, but most likely at 5PM

[craptacular]

927
SXXX50 KNHC 271850
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 26 KNHC
1839. 1643N 07459W 03049 0140 255 012 100 038 013 03235 0000000000
1840 1644N 07457W 03049 0142 247 012 100 042 012 03237 0000000000
1840. 1646N 07456W 03048 0142 258 014 100 038 015 03237 0000000000
1841 1647N 07454W 03047 0143 268 013 098 036 014 03237 0000000000
1841. 1649N 07453W 03049 0143 265 013 096 038 013 03238 0000000000
1842 1650N 07451W 03047 0142 256 014 100 036 015 03235 0000000000
1842. 1652N 07449W 03049 0141 256 015 098 036 016 03237 0000000000
1843 1653N 07448W 03047 0140 254 015 096 036 015 03234 0000000000
1843. 1655N 07446W 03049 0139 255 018 096 052 019 03235 0000000000
1844 1656N 07445W 03048 0140 256 020 098 060 020 03235 0000000000
1844. 1658N 07443W 03048 0139 249 020 098 062 020 03234 0000000000
1845 1659N 07442W 03048 0140 249 018 100 048 019 03235 0000000000
1845. 1701N 07440W 03048 0139 251 016 098 034 016 03234 0000000000
1846 1702N 07439W 03048 0138 251 016 098 034 017 03232 0000000000
1846. 1704N 07437W 03049 0137 250 017 096 036 018 03233 0000000000
1847 1705N 07436W 03048 0137 249 018 096 048 018 03231 0000000000
1847. 1707N 07434W 03048 0137 250 018 096 050 018 03232 0000000000
1848 1708N 07432W 03048 0138 248 018 096 058 018 03232 0000000000
1848. 1710N 07431W 03049 0138 249 018 096 058 018 03233 0000000000
1849 1711N 07429W 03048 0137 254 019 100 048 019 03232 0000000000

[fci]

Let me ask, anybody think it may miss the US completely and go east of Florida???

YES!!!!

And I have mentioned that before.
I think it has a real chance to never make it to the GOM

Didn't one model have it in the Bahamas 5 days out a few days ago?

[gatorcane]

Let me ask, anybody think it may miss the US completely and go east of Florida???

YES!!!!

And I have mentioned that before.
I think it has a real chance to never make it to the GOM

Didn't one model have it in the Bahamas 5 dyas out a few days ago?

originally the GFDL brought it NW then a WNW turn through the FL straits. I don't recall any model curving it east of FL a few days ago.

[Thunder44]

[PTPatrick]

Just looking at the prev track for Ernie...it is now outside of the cone that NHC had up yesterday(haiti was not even in the cone). That means that they were outside of their 24 hour cone...thats nuts.

[craptacular]

211
SXXX50 KNHC 271859
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 27 KNHC
1849. 1713N 07428W 03049 0137 256 020 100 048 020 03232 0000000000
1850 1714N 07426W 03046 0136 256 020 100 050 020 03229 0000000000
1850. 1716N 07425W 03050 0137 254 020 100 052 020 03234 0000000000
1851 1717N 07423W 03047 0138 254 017 102 054 019 03232 0000000000
1851. 1719N 07422W 03048 0136 250 016 106 050 017 03230 0000000000
1852 1721N 07422W 03047 0135 248 017 108 046 018 03229 0000000000
1852. 1723N 07421W 03047 0136 256 016 110 044 018 03230 0000000000
1853 1725N 07420W 03049 0136 269 014 114 046 015 03232 0000000000
1853. 1727N 07419W 03048 0135 255 015 116 044 016 03230 0000000000
1854 1729N 07418W 03049 0136 252 014 116 044 016 03231 0000000000
1854. 1731N 07418W 03048 0135 244 012 116 040 013 03230 0000000000
1855 1733N 07418W 03049 0134 249 012 120 040 013 03229 0000000000
1855. 1735N 07418W 03048 0133 247 010 120 042 011 03228 0000000000
1856 1737N 07419W 03047 0131 251 009 120 042 010 03224 0000000000
1856. 1738N 07420W 03047 0132 273 007 120 046 008 03226 0000000000
1857 1740N 07420W 03049 0131 282 007 120 046 008 03226 0000000000
1857. 1742N 07420W 03038 0130 283 007 122 050 007 03214 0000000000
1858 1744N 07419W 03050 0129 274 007 124 050 007 03226 0000000000
1858. 1746N 07419W 03049 0131 280 008 126 048 008 03227 0000000000
1859 1748N 07419W 03048 0130 309 006 124 046 006 03225 0000000000

edit: should be at center in next set of obs

[Innotech]

this storm is really not following any model guidance at all at this point. It keeps relocating centers and spinnig up again. Its definitely not dead, but the highest winds seem to have been spread far out into that southeast feeder band (49 kts). Anyway, I doubt this is the last gasps of Ernesto. Hes got a whole different path in mind I fear.

[gatorcane]

Just looking at the prev track for Ernie...it is now outside of the cone that NHC had up yesterday(haiti was not even in the cone). That means that they were outside of their 24 hour cone...thats nuts.

I have to say 2006 has been the year of storms that confused the heck out of the models - at least Chris and Ernesto have lived up to this so far.