Tropical Storm Chris

[ConvergenceZone]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

The bully high is just swatting that ULL rate out of the way to the West. The rate that high is moving in you can almost can see what the GFDL is saying pushing Chris W or even SW, it won't be long before Chris starts to respond. Just an amateur observation.

Good observation. I see what you are saying.

yep, perhaps the next update will be taking this storm west from here and away from the usa, crossing some land so that it won't be too big of a threat to the land it hits...

[jhamps10]

looking at the visable shot, you CAN see an eye starting to form.. Expect when recon gets there, that this will be a hurricane

[LightningInTheEye]

The 06Z GFS is at least off the drugs, with Chris initialized as a respectable storm. The track is reasonable and verifying - NW now, turning west early tomorrow, crossing the Bahamas, grazing S Fl, and heading out into the gulf. However, it has Chris weakening steadily to a remnant low and I don't see any reason for that. Shear is projected to be moderate-to-low and water temps warm to hot. I don't know how to extract humidities and airtemps from the GFS but I wouldn't expect either to be nasty over the forecast track.

When you say "S Fl", do you mean the Keys or the peninsula?

[KWT]

If its gonig to hit land before the Bahamas its going to have to turn to the west pretty soon because its already very close to being above the latitude of DR/Hatai. This storm is looking good though and I'm pretty sure that recon wil lfind close to hurricane force winds, if not the real deal.

[brunota2003]

The high pressure that's bringing the heat wave to the East and Midwest is supposed to move offshore by Friday. Wouldn't this affect the steering of the storm?

Not sure, maybe our weakness will come alot sooner. WHo knows?

Jeff Master's said it could move a bit north when that happens, but another ridge moving in behind it should make the storm move WNW again after that.

Timing is everything then as usual.

Brunota - the front is moving through and pushing the high pressure out.

I guess we'll need to see how strong this new high pressure is.

Thanks for the replies!

I thought it was...according to my discussion one of the models had the surface wave stalling over us before lifting out and allowing the high pressure to build back in...then it is back to the grind...yuck...I guess it all depends on how strong the front is when it makes its push, I've seen them be stronger than expected and I've seen them weaker than expected to...

[Rainband]

Guess they need a second reminder.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's rather unbelievable how several of the models are having this much trouble initializing a storm that is likely already a hurricane (pending RECON confirmation). It's likely due to the small size of Chris, though it is still rather hard to believe.

[JonathanBelles]

what plane will fly out at 1?

[tgenius]

I'm starting to get a little uncomfortable with all the talk that this storm could follow the same path that Andrew did in 92.... and its coming from alot of different people too, not just amateurs..

[wxmann_91]

The atmospheric pressures are high, and the storm is small, so the Globals are loosing it in the High Pressure.

I see no eye yet on San Juan radar imagery.

Oh, and I do not believe in a Andrew repeat, rather, the Keys hurricane of 1919 looks more likely in terms of track, maybe a bit to the south.

[StormWarning1]

Here is the 12Z GFS loop thru 132 hours. At least is initializes Chris ok, but loses it after about 48 hours.
Should be enough to bump the 18Z GFDL North of the Domincan Republic.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[deltadog03]

now, Chris is small in size due to the dry air around, however that should change once it gets closer to the bahamas. I think the overall system will grow.

[skysummit]

Latest from Eglin AFB....

There have been no significant changes to Tropical Storm Chris since the special update earlier this morning. At 1000 CDT, the center of the storm was about 120 miles ENE of St Thomas in the Virgin Islands. It is expected to skirt north of Puerto Rico today and pass through the Turks and Caicos Islands of the lower Bahamas on Friday where a Hurricane Watch has been issued because Chris is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. There continues to be a great deal of uncertainty regarding the future intensity of the storm, primarily because atmospheric models (which have performed very well during the past couple of busy seasons) have not had a good handle on Chris yet. All global models continue to underestimate its strength and insist on weakening it with each model run, in spite of observations, radar and satellite tools that all show a trend toward a building storm.



The problems with the intensity forecast have a bearing on the future track forecast since a strong hurricane is pushed and pulled by surrounding weather patterns much differently than a weakening, shallow system (which all the models portray beyond 72 hours but seems increasingly unrealistic). Unfortunately for this portion of the Gulf Coast, intensifying hurricanes tend to want to turn toward the right (toward the North Pole in the Northern Hemisphere), so if Chris is a strong hurricane as it passes south of Miami late this weekend, it would be more likely to curve toward the Panhandle through the day on Monday. A weaker storm would tend to stay on the more westerly path toward Texas and pass well south of Eglin. So locally, we have extra incentive to root for Chris not becoming a major hurricane. By some point on Friday, we should have a much better idea of how much of a threat, if any, it will pose to our area.



Elsewhere, we continue to see signs of what may eventually become a large hurricane gathering over the eastern Atlantic. The good news is that anything forming near the African Coast is at least 8 to 10 days from any potential impact to the Gulf of Mexico.

[MiamiensisWx]

The atmospheric pressures are high, and the storm is small, so the Globals are loosing it in the High Pressure.

I see no eye yet on San Juan radar imagery.

Those were my suspicions, too.

The system is tightening up a bit more and is establishing banding on this loop in many directions. In my opinion, I think RECON will confirm hurricane status.

[jimvb]

None of the models show Chris as doing much. Most don't show it at all, while GFS still calls for it to fizzle. Maybe these don't take into account high sea temperatures, but still it says this storm may not amount to much. The NHC forecaster called for Chris to become a hurricane, and the hypermedia has taken off with that. You hear "hurricane" a lot on the news sources, and the markets have already reacted to it - the price of crude oil has gone up a dollar a barrel, to about $75 or so. I wonder if this is the real thing, or if this is another variant of what I call Felix Syndrome (see http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ight=felix , about May 31 or so, to see what I mean).

[LightningInTheEye]

i wonder when the new computer models arrive?

[deltadog03]

Unfortunately for this portion of the Gulf Coast, intensifying hurricanes tend to want to turn toward the right (toward the North Pole in the Northern Hemisphere), so if Chris is a strong hurricane as it passes south of Miami late this weekend, it would be more likely to curve toward the Panhandle through the day on Monday. A weaker storm would tend to stay on the more westerly path toward Texas and pass well south of Eglin.

I find that statement about recurve towards the panhandle just plain stupid! Im sorry...Your NOT going to budge a 594+DM ridge, I don't care how strong this gets.

[drezee]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ltbv3

First feeder band collapsed E of PR and a buoy got a 56kt wind gust!

May be an error though...

[WindRunner]

AF numero 303 is ready and waiting . . .

SXXX50 KNHC 021636
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 01 KNHC
1624. 1742N 06448W 00000 0019 360 000 330 238 000 00000 0000000000
1625 1742N 06448W 00000 0018 360 000 328 238 000 00000 0000000000
1625. 1742N 06448W 00000 0019 360 000 328 236 000 00000 0000000000
1626 1742N 06448W 00000 0018 360 000 332 238 000 00000 0000000000
1626. 1742N 06448W 00000 0019 360 000 334 238 000 00000 0000000000
1627 1742N 06448W 00000 0019 360 000 340 238 000 00000 0000000000
1627. 1742N 06448W 00000 0019 360 000 340 242 000 00000 0000000000
1628 1742N 06448W 00000 0019 360 000 340 240 000 00000 0000000000
1628. 1742N 06448W 00000 0018 360 000 340 240 000 00000 0000000000
1629 1742N 06448W 00000 0018 360 000 338 240 000 00000 0000000000
1629. 1742N 06448W 00000 0017 360 000 328 242 000 00000 0000000000
1630 1742N 06448W 00000 0019 360 000 306 240 000 00000 0000000000
1630. 1742N 06448W 00000 0019 360 000 296 242 000 00000 0000000000
1631 1742N 06448W 00000 0017 360 000 298 238 000 00000 0000000000
1631. 1742N 06448W 00000 0017 360 000 298 232 000 00000 0000000000
1632 1742N 06447W 00000 0018 360 000 294 232 000 00000 0000000000
1632. 1742N 06447W 00000 0018 360 000 292 236 000 00000 0000000000
1633 1742N 06447W 00000 0018 360 000 304 238 000 00000 0000000000
1633. 1742N 06447W 00000 0018 360 000 310 242 000 00000 0000000000
1634 1742N 06447W 00000 0018 360 000 310 242 000 00000 0000000000

[tgenius]

I'm starting to get a little uncomfortable with all the talk that this storm could follow the same path that Andrew did in 92.... and its coming from alot of different people too, not just amateurs..

For my information, could you please explain who these "different people" are (that are "not just amateurs" ) who confirm an Andrew-like scenario for southern Florida?

Well.. I'm under the assumption that people on Marster's blog are legit, perhaps i'm a lil too guillible/naive when it comes to weather