Tropical Storm Alberto

[Opal storm]

Honestly, I'd be extremely surprised if he came back this time.

I agree.I just saw it on TWC and almost all the deep convection is in FL now,leaving a naked swirl in the Gulf with nothing around it.

[mahicks]

Al is Toast. Thank goodness.

I have to be in Crawfordville all week.


**Disclaimer** Please disregard anything I say as "official" or even usefull.
Please rely on local weather statements or NHC.

[ronjon]

I wonder if the Tstorm complex moving southward from AL will get pulled into the circulation of Alberto? The storm seems to have jogged north or slowed down on SAT - It certainly isn't racing off to the NE - more like ploding along. Looking for a diurnal fareup tonight although nothing like last night.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Noles2006]

Recon is still finding some brisk winds around the center of Alberto...

[Noles2006]

I wonder if the Tstorm complex moving southward from AL will get pulled into the circulation of Alberto? The storm seems to have jogged north or slowed down on SAT - It certainly isn't racing off to the NE - more like ploding along. Looking for a diurnal fareup tonight although nothing like last night.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I see that, too, ronjon. What an interesting storm. I guess it was premature of me to write Alberto off, I just don't see him coming back this time so close to land... BUT it does look like he's slowed down or even started drifting northward..

[Nimbus]

The LLC is moving north of NE looks like it may pass to the west of the Tampa Buoy. Any bets on the wind direction for 42036 at midnight?


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

[brunota2003]

I'm scratching my head trying to figure out the NHC's keeping Alberto at 70 mph for the intermediate advisory. Better safe than sorry, yes, but c'mon, let's be real here.

You know the recon crew that is in Alberto, on the Vortex Message they released about 20 minutes ago said Est. Surface Winds Observed: 69 mph and the eye temp and outside of the eye temp is 12 degrees different...that is a big spread for such a "meager and pitiful" storm...

[ericinmia]

Here is a really cool radar animation i came across today....

Shows the front (confronting) Alberto.

http://cache1.intelliweather.net/imager ... 80_img.htm

[Noles2006]

Yes, I realize this... and it surprises me.

[curtadams]

I'm scratching my head trying to figure out the NHC's keeping Alberto at 70 mph for the intermediate advisory. Better safe than sorry, yes, but c'mon, let's be real here.

You know the recon crew that is in Alberto, on the Vortex Message they released about 20 minutes ago said Est. Surface Winds Observed: 69 mph and the eye temp and outside of the eye temp is 12 degrees different...that is a big spread for such a "meager and pitiful" storm...

Temp drops back down to 48F = 9C southeast of the storm - so Alberto seems to still be lofting warm air. How? What's the energy source? And why aren't we seeing condensation and precipitation?

[sponger]

This storm has been full of surprises. Last nights flare up was not predicted to happen. Still, its moving out of the loop current so I think even maintaining intensity would be impressive.

Imagine what we would be looking at if there was no shear or dry air to inhibit it.

[johnq1954]

This storm has been full of surprises. Last nights flare up was not predicted to happen. Still, its moving out of the loop current so I think even maintaining intensity would be impressive.

Imagine what we would be looking at if there was no shear or dry air to inhibit it.

I could be wrong, but the most significant graphic I've seen of the conditions inhibiting this storm is this one. I mean look at how dry it is west of Alberto:

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... region=CSE

[jaxfladude]

This storm has been full of surprises. Last nights flare up was not predicted to happen. Still, its moving out of the loop current so I think even maintaining intensity would be impressive.

Imagine what we would be looking at if there was no shear or dry air to inhibit it.

A very bad night ahead for the Big Bend area of Florida, major damage to the coastal island towns, in my area major threat of Tornadoes: right quad and all...........in short: A very bad night in store for sure.............

[conestogo_flood]

How bad is the tornado risk right now? The SPC is issuing a new tornado watch for all of central Florida right now. Are we facing a big tornado threat?

[CrazyC83]

This storm has been full of surprises. Last nights flare up was not predicted to happen. Still, its moving out of the loop current so I think even maintaining intensity would be impressive.

Imagine what we would be looking at if there was no shear or dry air to inhibit it.

That would be an August or September setup. We'd likely be looking at a Category 3 or 4 hurricane right now in that scenario.

[CrazyC83]

How bad is the tornado risk right now? The SPC is issuing a new tornado watch for all of central Florida right now. Are we facing a big tornado threat?

The last tornado watch was a borderline case - 30% risk of tornadoes, little risk for anything else...I need to check the numbers.

[wxman57]

Here's a new plot. Max winds any of those 3 buoys has reported since noon was 40 kts.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto40.gif

[fci]

This storm has been full of surprises. Last nights flare up was not predicted to happen. Still, its moving out of the loop current so I think even maintaining intensity would be impressive.

Imagine what we would be looking at if there was no shear or dry air to inhibit it.

I could be wrong, but the most significant graphic I've seen of the conditions inhibiting this storm is this one. I mean look at how dry it is west of Alberto:

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... region=CSE

WOW!
Dry air pushing almost to the coast (if I am looking it the graphic correctly)

[CHRISTY]

[wxman57]

That graphic is pretty, but it doesn't represent the potential surge of this poorly-organized storm. To get those kind of surge heights would require a well-organized Cat 1 hurricane. A surge is built up by a large area of strong winds blowing toward the coast. But Alberto has no such wind field, its strongest winds are blowing from east to west - away from shore. Therefore, Alberto will produce NO storm surge - per se. The S-SW winds of 25-35 kts in advance of the storm now moving into the coast will produce what is called a "setup tide". This setup tide will probably max out at 2-3 feet, less in most areas. But there will be no surge to follow as there is no core of high winds.

I'm presently writing a very lengthy article for the next S2K newsletter on storm surge. Hopefully, I'll eventually get off these 12 hr shifts and have time to work on it.