Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[storms in NC]

Could a mod fix the link to shorten page please thank you

[shawn67]

It looks to me like the storm is reorganizing again with the eye now being on or near the Haitian coast

[craptacular]

128
SXXX50 KNHC 271917
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 28 KNHC
1859. 1749N 07418W 03049 0130 329 004 122 056 005 03225 0000000000
1900 1751N 07417W 03048 0130 287 005 112 070 005 03225 0000000000
1900. 1752N 07415W 03050 0133 276 004 114 068 005 03230 0000000000
1901 1754N 07415W 03045 0132 134 004 110 078 006 03224 0000000000
1901. 1755N 07414W 03051 0138 150 005 112 076 007 03236 0000000000
1902 1755N 07412W 03047 0129 205 008 116 064 008 03222 0000000000
1902. 1754N 07410W 03048 0129 213 009 116 060 010 03223 0000000000
1903 1754N 07408W 03049 0128 214 011 116 058 011 03223 0000000000
1903. 1754N 07406W 03049 0128 212 013 116 054 013 03224 0000000000
1904 1754N 07405W 03046 0127 204 012 114 056 012 03220 0000000000
1904. 1754N 07403W 03048 0128 198 013 114 058 013 03223 0000000000
1905 1754N 07401W 03048 0127 203 015 110 056 016 03222 0000000000
1905. 1754N 07359W 03050 0128 210 016 112 056 017 03225 0000000000
1906 1754N 07357W 03045 0126 213 017 116 052 018 03218 0000000000
1906. 1753N 07355W 03050 0127 212 018 116 052 020 03223 0000000000
1907 1753N 07353W 03045 0125 217 019 110 056 020 03217 0000000000
1907. 1753N 07351W 03048 0126 223 022 114 052 022 03220 0000000000
1908 1753N 07349W 03047 0126 225 025 116 050 026 03219 0000000000
1908. 1753N 07347W 03049 0126 220 028 116 052 028 03222 0000000000
1909 1752N 07345W 03051 0125 211 030 108 054 031 03223 0000000000

edit: flying around in the middle again (or avoiding Haiti??)

[Trugunzn]

It looks to me like the storm is reorganizing again with the eye now being on or near the Haitian coast[/quote]

Storms dont reorganize over land.

[28_Storms]

It looks like the mountains have completely cut off the ventilation causing the weakening. I think people should not get too excited yet. The circulation is still well defined and all it has to do is clear these mountains and away from land it could redevelop quickly. We have seen countless examples of what the loop or gulf stream currents can do to storms this time of year.

[shawn67]

It looks to me like the storm is reorganizing again with the eye now being on or near the Haitian coast[/quote]



Storms dont reorganize over land.[/quote]

Please note what I just bolded

[marcane_1973]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg This is one ragged looking storm. It looked better yesterday in my opinion. If he wants to be a CAT 2 then Ernesto has a lot of work to do. I think it will either be a strong TS or weak CAT 1 when it hits Florida. The center has already been MAJORLY DISRUPTED over a little bit of land. That is the sign of a weak storm that never really got its act together.

[craptacular]

208
SXXX50 KNHC 271922
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 29 KNHC
1909. 1752N 07343W 03048 0124 208 030 098 078 030 03218 0000000000
1910 1752N 07341W 03048 0125 208 030 086 086 031 03219 0000000000
1910. 1752N 07339W 03046 0124 203 033 082 076 035 03217 0000000000
1911 1753N 07337W 03050 0125 202 036 076 074 037 03222 0000000000
1911. 1753N 07335W 03049 0126 199 039 066 066 040 03221 0000000000
1912 1754N 07333W 03040 0126 196 039 072 072 039 03212 0000000000
1912. 1754N 07331W 03055 0132 195 036 058 058 037 03234 0000000000
1913 1753N 07330W 03048 0130 192 036 052 052 037 03225 0000000000
1913. 1753N 07328W 03048 0131 190 036 068 068 037 03225 0000000000
1914 1753N 07326W 03047 0132 194 037 072 072 038 03226 0000000000
1914. 1752N 07324W 03049 0135 193 038 064 064 038 03230 0000000000
1915 1752N 07322W 03046 0136 193 039 060 060 041 03229 0000000000
1915. 1752N 07320W 03050 0137 192 042 064 064 042 03234 0000000000
1916 1752N 07318W 03049 0139 195 042 066 066 042 03234 0000000000
1916. 1753N 07316W 03046 0139 193 041 072 072 042 03232 0000000000
1917 1753N 07315W 03048 0138 194 039 070 070 039 03233 0000000000
1917. 1753N 07313W 03047 0139 192 036 064 064 037 03232 0000000000
1918 1753N 07311W 03049 0140 186 034 058 058 035 03236 0000000000
1918. 1753N 07309W 03048 0141 184 033 064 064 034 03235 0000000000
1919 1753N 07307W 03051 0141 184 032 074 074 033 03238 0000000000

[storms in NC]

Just looked at the v loop and it had the center tighten up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Thunder44]

[28_Storms]

The center looks fine.

[Trugunzn]

[It looks to me like the storm is reorganizing again with the eye now being on or near the Haitian coast[/quote]



Storms dont reorganize over land.[/quote]

Please note what I just bolded[/quote]

Then Just say near Haitian coast!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Still, Ernesto doesn't have much time till he nears Cuba. But if he can actually avoid Cuba and head toward the East Coast of Florida then he has a chance.

[CrazyC83]

Looks more like a TD at this point...

Umm no, has a well defined center, that you can see on visible, banding is evident....

I agree. It is better organized, but far less convection than this morning. I'd say it is a high-end tropical storm at this point, say 55 knots.

[28_Storms]

Still, Ernesto doesn't have much time till he nears Cuba. But if he can actually avoid Cuba and head toward the East Coast of Florida then he has a chance.

See Fredricks track.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Why does this say Tropical Storm Ernesto? I didn't think it had been downgraded... yet at least.

[AL Chili Pepper]

looks like the center is a bit north now of the NHC forecast point. Anybody else agree?

I thought that too, but the latest recon vortex message shows it right on top of the latest NHC track.

[Opal storm]

Wow, I just saw it on TWC and it looks extremely pathetic,looks like a weak TS IMO.And it also looks to of slowed down a lot,maybe the trof will catch it before it even gets to FL (I was disagreeing with this scenerio earlier but now it looks likely).Looks like Ernesto won't be as bad as what we were fearing 24 hrs ago.

btw,there are now lines at the gas pumps with people filling up their containers here in P'cola.Obviously they must have not seen the new track.

[craptacular]

244
URNT14 KNHC 271929
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01164 10753 13156 11003 26011
02165 20751 23151 20909 24014
03167 30750 33153 31004 25012
04169 40748 43149 41007 26019
05171 50746 53147 51005 25018
06173 60744 63146 61005 25016
07176 70743 73143 71204 24011
MF173 M0744 MF020
OBS 01 AT 18:31:50Z
OBS 07 AT 18:55:00Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 99005
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01179 10740 13137 11106 20013
02179 20738 23136 21105 22028
03179 30735 33141 30505 19035
04179 40732 43148 40707 19039
05179 50730 53149 50505 17031
06179 60727 63154 60807 19025
MF179 M0733 MF042
OBS 01 AT 19:04:10Z
OBS 06 AT 19:25:10Z
OBS 06 SFC WND /////
AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 14
;

[craptacular]

420
URNT11 KNHC 271927
97779 19264 10179 72700 30500 19025 08078 /3156
RMK AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 13
;