Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[gatorcane]

Looking great this morning.....as it moves west. Could Helene be "the CV" storm of 2006 to remember?

[gatorcane]

Can sombody post some thoughts about the steering currents and synoptics that will guide this system......????

[x-y-no]

Notice the lack of convection on the NE side of the circulation. That is quite common in this part of the ocean due to a few factors, including dry and stable marine air coming from the north and east as well as easterly shear associated with a strong upper-level high (also likely causing the fast movement...20mph). As systems move south and west of the Cape Verde islands that normally changes and significant development takes place.

SSTs 84* and rising...

Yes, I think the prime reason in this case is entrained dry air and dust.

But the system looks extraordinarily good for where it is. Very likely to develop into a significant hurricane.


It's going to be pretty unlikely for a system this strong to track all the way across to the islands. So far, only the shallow BAM shows any bend back west in the longer term, and if this is strengthening as it should that's the least significant of the BAM models.

[Bonedog]

wow alot of 30+ winds in this. TS strength already? Maybe the 11am will say so also?

[drezee]

Pasch is the Senior Hurricane Specialist on Duty this morning. He is the one that will make the advisory call this morning. There is some concern about the structure of the NE quad. It will likely be mentioned in the discussion at 1500z.

[Bonedog]

oh ok. so they will wait then for the NE quad to organize better before the upgrade? I figured with those dropsonde numbers and the quickscat it supported a name.

[gatorcane]

oh ok. so they will wait then for the NE quad to organize better before the upgrade? I figured with those dropsonde numbers and the quickscat it supported a name.

It looks like this thing will become a hurricane no matter what anyway. Its rather impressive with water temps well above the minimum threshold of 78F

[Bonedog]

I figured on the cane just wondering if they would jump from invest to TS without the depression. Maybe the 5pm advisory then?

[wxman57]

Can sombody post some thoughts about the steering currents and synoptics that will guide this system......????

It appears that this system will most likely encounter a sharp upper-level trof in the vicinity of 50W longitude. This will probably result in a northwest turn well east of th Caribbean. I.E., another fish but slightly east of Gordon's track. I'm not saying I'm 100% certain it'll turn north around 50W, maybe only 70-80% certain.

[gatorcane]

Can sombody post some thoughts about the steering currents and synoptics that will guide this system......????

It appears that this system will most likely encounter a sharp upper-level trof in the vicinity of 50W longitude. This will probably result in a northwest turn well east of th Caribbean. I.E., another fish but slightly east of Gordon's track. I'm not saying I'm 100% certain it'll turn north around 50W, maybe only 70-80% certain.

thanks WxMan, you have been right everytime this year (throw out Ernesto because everybody was wrong).....

[x-y-no]

Can sombody post some thoughts about the steering currents and synoptics that will guide this system......????

There's enough low and mid-level ridging to keep this moving mostly west for three days or so. At that point, the GFS has an upper to mid-level weakness mid-ocean which should allow some gain in latitude. I suspect that won't be too dramatic, though, and there will be some return to a WNW course for another day or two.

Looking further ahead than that is chancy, but the ensemble means show another good low to mid-level trough off the northeast in the mid to long range which ought to recurve it rather like Florence and Gordon. That's my first rough impression.

EDIT:

500mb heights at 156 hours (GFS ensemble means) - very high confidence in that trough ...

[gatorcane]

Can sombody post some thoughts about the steering currents and synoptics that will guide this system......????

There's enough low and mid-level ridging to keep this moving mostly west for three days or so. At that point, the GFS has an upper to mid-level weakness mid-ocean which should allow some gain in latitude. I suspect that won't be too dramatic, though, and there will be some return to a WNW course for another day or two.

Looking further ahead than that is chancy, but the ensemble means show another good low to mid-level trough off the northeast in the mid to long range which ought to recurve it rather like Florence and Gordon. That's my first rough impression.

thanks, the forecast still seems somewhat uncertain after 5 days out.

[SouthFloridawx]

Can sombody post some thoughts about the steering currents and synoptics that will guide this system......????

There's enough low and mid-level ridging to keep this moving mostly west for three days or so. At that point, the GFS has an upper to mid-level weakness mid-ocean which should allow some gain in latitude. I suspect that won't be too dramatic, though, and there will be some return to a WNW course for another day or two.

Looking further ahead than that is chancy, but the ensemble means show another good low to mid-level trough off the northeast in the mid to long range which ought to recurve it rather like Florence and Gordon. That's my first rough impression.

As is my first impression also. Sharp westerlies coming off the CONUS should allow for weakening of the ridge to turn this puppy North. Yes it's early but, GFS has progged a huge trough to move into the Wester CONUS and move eastward. It's not a Rex block but, a jet split that should dip far enough south to give the Eastern US a nice cool down and allow for TD08 to to turn out to sea.

Hopefully we'll see a major but, nothing that affects land.

[TheRingo]

If water temps are above normal why hasn't this caused more shear to kick up. Isn't that the effect from el nino to cause more shear or maybe it will take some time for el nino to really get going.

[gatorcane]

interesting the GFS does not show recurve as quickly....

THE GFS FORECASTS LESS OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
NEAR 50W AND TAKES THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

wow Luis could be a west runner here......unless it curves sharply at 50W.

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest SFWMD model plots...

[Evil Jeremy]

If this heads for florida, we will be calling this He*l, not Hellen.

[Lowpressure]

I am a little surprised that the NHC is quite low on intensity with a system organizing this quickly. Cautious is the word. This system may prove to be interesting. Is 50w still the range of recon?