Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

#181 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 5:23 pm

Okay I understand it better now. Thanks wxman57.

<RICKY>

#182 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 8:39 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060923 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060923 0000 060923 1200 060924 0000 060924 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 40.0W 15.9N 41.0W 17.9N 41.5W 19.6N 41.9W
BAMM 14.0N 40.0W 15.5N 41.1W 17.3N 41.5W 18.5N 41.7W
A98E 14.0N 40.0W 15.0N 41.3W 16.0N 42.5W 17.4N 43.2W
LBAR 14.0N 40.0W 15.8N 41.4W 17.6N 42.4W 19.0N 43.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060925 0000 060926 0000 060927 0000 060928 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 42.1W 23.2N 44.3W 25.6N 47.4W 27.5N 49.1W
BAMM 19.4N 42.0W 20.8N 44.6W 23.0N 48.5W 24.8N 51.4W
A98E 19.0N 43.7W 22.5N 46.0W 25.4N 48.4W 26.6N 50.1W
LBAR 20.0N 44.5W 22.9N 47.2W 26.2N 49.8W 28.3N 50.7W
SHIP 47KTS 54KTS 57KTS 56KTS
DSHP 47KTS 54KTS 57KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 40.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 38.8W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 36.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/?C=M;O=D

00:00z Models.Moving 310 degrees already and the initial position is further northward 14.0n than the last run of 12.2n.

SkeetoBite 00:00z Graphic

#183 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 9:44 pm

Looking better this evening.

#184 Postby **Toadstool** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 10:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/?C=M;O=D

00:00z Models.Moving 310 degrees already and the initial position is further northward 14.0n than the last run of 12.2n.

SkeetoBite 00:00z Graphic

Great to see all the models coming into line compared to where they were 24-hours ago!
SFWMD Graphic

#185 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 10:04 pm

Isaac in a few days? Time will tell!!!

#186 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 10:13 pm

Here's a little better image with 1-deg lat/lon lines. It certainly appears to me that a center may be forming well north of the 00Z model initialization, perhaps between 16-17N. I see no evidence of turning at 14N/40W. I do think this has an excellent chance of becoming Isaac in the next 48 hours. Almost certainly it'll take a track out to sea like Helene.

#187 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 10:24 pm

Here are the 00Z models. I even left the BAM and LBAR models in there. Models are quite insistent on immediate recurvature in the wake of Helene. Looks good to me:

Thunder44 · #188 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 10:31 pm

Wxman57, if that center is developing as far north as you are saying, then I do think recurvature is more likely now before 60W.

#189 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 10:33 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Wxman57, if that center is developing as far north as you are saying, then I do think recurvature is more likely now before 60W.

Well, look at the satellite image I posted. Do you see anything at 14N/40W? Just a horizontal band of squalls. The rotation is farther north. The NHC will continue to adjust the initialization point northward with each run.

Thunder44 · #190 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 11:04 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:Wxman57, if that center is developing as far north as you are saying, then I do think recurvature is more likely now before 60W.

Well, look at the satellite image I posted. Do you see anything at 14N/40W? Just a horizontal band of squalls. The rotation is farther north. The NHC will continue to adjust the initialization point northward with each run.

You are correct, I don't see any circulation at 14N 40W. Running a loop off the IR-2 floater, I see see some some spinning further north where near where you put the low.

Thunder44 · #191 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 3:08 am

198
WHXX01 KWBC 230707
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060923 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060923 0600 060923 1800 060924 0600 060924 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 40.3W 16.4N 41.3W 17.8N 42.0W 18.9N 42.6W
BAMM 14.6N 40.3W 16.1N 41.2W 17.3N 41.7W 18.0N 42.2W
A98E 14.6N 40.3W 15.6N 41.3W 16.7N 42.4W 17.7N 43.4W
LBAR 14.6N 40.3W 16.1N 41.4W 17.5N 42.1W 18.5N 43.1W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060925 0600 060926 0600 060927 0600 060928 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.8N 43.6W 22.2N 47.4W 25.4N 51.1W 28.6N 53.0W
BAMM 18.6N 43.0W 20.3N 46.6W 23.0N 50.7W 25.5N 53.0W
A98E 18.9N 44.7W 22.3N 48.3W 26.0N 52.2W 30.6N 54.2W
LBAR 19.3N 44.5W 22.2N 48.5W 25.6N 52.2W 29.3N 53.6W
SHIP 44KTS 48KTS 53KTS 55KTS
DSHP 44KTS 48KTS 53KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 40.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 39.3W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 38.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

6z models initialized the "center' at 14.6N 40.3W

Hyperstorm · #192 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 4:26 am

It looks like this system is a go for the name Isaac during the next 2-3 days. Convection is consolidating as we speak and it has a classic pre-development structure. Expect t-numbers for this system later today...

Meso · #193 Postby **Meso** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 4:37 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230902
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION...
AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Hyperstorm · #194 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 5:13 am

DEEP convective burst over the broad circulation with cloud tops as cold as -70*C near 18N. This will likely localize the circulation and make it tighter that far north.

2006 has an unusual characteristic. Tropical waves are developing large cyclones...

#195 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 6:29 am

805 AM EDT TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 21N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
ROTATION COVERING A LARGE AREA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-23N BETWEEN 35W-45W. THIS
WAVE HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SLOWLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

Thunder44 · #196 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 6:48 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my analysis of 96L. NOT a forecast...

This system appears to be slowly getting better organized this morning with increasing convection around the broad low-pressure center. I expected it to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next day or two.

If this system develops, the ultimate future track of this system depends on where it’s center exactly forms and how strong does it get. The ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET build a stronger ridge in the Central Atlantic over the next few days and take 96L further to west, closer to the Northern Leeward Islands in about 5 days. However, they also weaken and dissipate it. The GFS, GFDL, and CMC take the storm NW and northward into the open waters of the Central Atlantic as it will move into the weakness in the ridge, sooner. Looking out how this system is developing this morning, I favor the northward solutions at this time. There is large trough still in the Western Atlantic now, that could eventually cause strong vertical wind shear over this system, but since this is such large system now it should be able to sustain itself.

Even if this system moves further west, it’s likely to be very weak and another large deep-layer trough is forecast by all the models to be moving off the US East Coast in about 7 days, that will probably rip it to pieces or recurve it before it reaches 70W.

#197 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 7:34 am

23/1045 UTC 14.9N 42.9W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Nimbus · #198 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 7:53 am

The early morning visibibles show a broad area of low clouds circulating near 15N. Seems to be following the models NW track so far.

Thunder44 · #199 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 8:44 am

009
WHXX01 KWBC 231330
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060923 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060923 1200 060924 0000 060924 1200 060925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 40.8W 16.5N 41.7W 17.6N 42.4W 18.6N 43.3W
BAMM 15.0N 40.8W 16.3N 41.6W 17.1N 42.3W 17.9N 43.0W
A98E 15.0N 40.8W 15.8N 41.8W 16.8N 42.9W 18.0N 43.7W
LBAR 15.0N 40.8W 16.4N 41.7W 17.4N 42.6W 18.4N 43.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060925 1200 060926 1200 060927 1200 060928 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.5N 44.5W 22.0N 48.4W 24.8N 51.7W 27.2N 53.6W
BAMM 18.4N 44.2W 20.3N 48.2W 22.7N 52.1W 24.8N 54.5W
A98E 19.6N 44.8W 23.2N 48.6W 26.8N 52.5W 30.6N 54.7W
LBAR 19.3N 45.6W 22.2N 49.8W 26.0N 53.5W 29.7N 54.9W
SHIP 42KTS 47KTS 49KTS 51KTS
DSHP 42KTS 47KTS 49KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 40.8W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 39.8W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 38.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

12z models initialized at 15.0N 40.8W and moving NW at 6kts

Model plots:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_96.gif

Sanibel · #200 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 9:06 am

Slow organization.

The center is jumping to the northern part of the circulation just south of 18N.

Going right up the hole blasted in the Atlantic synoptic by Helene.

Oceanic track year like I guessed in May.

Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

Who is online