Tropical Storm Chris

[Grease Monkey]

Once it reaches the moist air, it will probably start to really expand.

[clfenwi]

Based on a quick glance, I don't see a big difference between the 12 Z and the 06Z GFDL runs still a significant dip to the southwest before turning back northeast

WHXX04 KWBC 021734
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS 03L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.0 63.1 300./ 8.9
6 19.4 64.0 293./ 9.3
12 19.6 64.5 290./ 5.0
18 19.6 65.4 273./ 8.2
24 19.6 66.0 271./ 6.1
30 19.4 66.6 254./ 5.8
36 19.3 67.1 256./ 4.6
42 19.1 68.0 257./ 9.0
48 18.9 68.8 258./ 7.6
54 18.6 69.6 250./ 7.7
60 18.5 70.4 257./ 8.3
66 18.5 71.6 272./11.4
72 19.1 73.2 291./15.9
78 19.0 74.1 266./ 8.5
84 19.2 74.9 281./ 8.3
90 19.2 76.0 268./ 9.8
96 19.5 76.9 290./10.0
102 19.8 78.2 284./12.3
108 20.0 79.6 278./12.9
114 20.3 80.8 283./11.3
120 20.5 82.0 278./11.5
126 20.6 83.3 277./12.7

[WindRunner]

[dwg71]

Or even slightly north of that, definately not a W motion....yet.

[seaswing]

Good to have you in this forum Derek. Kind of grounds things when emotions and opinions get carried away.

[mvtrucking]

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

What's the UKMET seeing??

Its just over an hour later than the NHC and its showing a little longer NW jog before coming back west. Could be?

[storms in NC]

if any thing a little to the right and north. But not much

[MiamiensisWx]

Can the link to the live RECON reports be posted? Thanks!

[dwg71]

They should be near it in the next 10-15 minutes - I'm not expecting anything more than 60 - 65Kt flight level.

[x-y-no]

Can the link to the live RECON reports be posted? Thanks!

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

[Scorpion]

They should be near it in the next 10-15 minutes - I'm not expecting anything more than 60 - 65Kt flight level.

Why? If anything, it would be stronger than it was before.

[flhurricaneguy]

how often are the models run?

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks, Jan... needed it again!

[MiamiensisWx]

085
SXXX50 KNHC 021736
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 07 KNHC
1724. 1823N 06256W 01523 0109 201 025 156 144 026 01672 0000000000
1725 1824N 06257W 01518 0107 197 025 154 136 026 01666 0000000000
1725. 1825N 06259W 01530 0106 197 029 154 154 029 01677 0000000000
1726 1827N 06300W 01521 0107 198 027 156 148 029 01669 0000000000
1726. 1828N 06301W 01527 0108 196 027 160 126 027 01676 0000000000
1727 1829N 06303W 01524 0108 197 027 156 138 028 01672 0000000000
1727. 1830N 06304W 01524 0106 195 031 158 132 032 01671 0000000000
1728 1832N 06305W 01521 0103 189 030 130 130 032 01666 0000000100
1728. 1833N 06306W 01526 0106 200 030 146 146 030 01672 0000000000
1729 1834N 06308W 01524 0105 198 030 154 138 030 01670 0000000000
1729. 1835N 06309W 01525 0104 196 031 150 144 031 01670 0000000000
1730 1837N 06310W 01525 0104 197 031 146 146 032 01669 0000000000
1730. 1838N 06312W 01523 0103 198 033 148 144 033 01667 0000000000
1731 1839N 06313W 01523 0103 201 033 152 122 034 01667 0000000000
1731. 1840N 06314W 01524 0100 198 034 148 132 035 01665 0000000000
1732 1842N 06316W 01525 0098 197 038 144 118 038 01664 0000000000
1732. 1843N 06317W 01524 0097 198 038 140 136 040 01661 0000000000
1733 1844N 06318W 01524 0094 197 037 148 138 039 01658 0000000000
1733. 1845N 06319W 01528 0092 189 040 132 132 042 01661 0000000000
1734 1847N 06321W 01522 0090 190 042 122 122 043 01654 0000000000

[Eyewall]

nah it doesn't look too much better organized than this morning

[Brent]

how often are the models run?

Every 6 hours... 6z, 12z, 18z, 0z.

[Grease Monkey]

I would expect at least 70mph winds after the flight level reduction.

[Lowpressure]

This is going to be fun watching recon, I say 80 mph cane.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 021746
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 08 KNHC
1734. 1848N 06322W 01522 0090 190 043 126 126 046 01652 0000000000
1735 1849N 06324W 01523 0088 194 043 120 120 044 01652 0000000000
1735. 1850N 06325W 01524 0084 199 044 112 112 045 01649 0000000000
1736 1851N 06326W 01528 0084 200 045 120 120 047 01652 0000000000
1736. 1852N 06328W 01524 0083 208 042 128 128 043 01648 0000000000
1737 1853N 06329W 01522 0082 211 040 126 126 041 01645 0000000000
1737. 1854N 06331W 01526 0081 211 038 126 126 039 01648 0000000000
1738 1855N 06332W 01524 0081 219 035 134 134 040 01645 0000000000
1738. 1856N 06334W 01520 0082 233 033 150 150 034 01643 0000000000
1739 1857N 06335W 01527 0080 234 034 146 146 034 01647 0000000000
1739. 1858N 06336W 01528 0081 231 031 152 152 033 01650 0000000000
1740 1859N 06337W 01517 0080 234 033 146 146 034 01637 0000000000
1740. 1900N 06338W 01526 0078 232 033 158 158 035 01645 0000000000
1741 1902N 06339W 01522 0077 232 032 160 160 033 01639 0000000000
1741. 1903N 06340W 01526 0077 230 035 164 164 035 01644 0000000000
1742 1904N 06341W 01524 0076 234 033 158 158 033 01641 0000000000
1742. 1905N 06342W 01523 0075 239 034 132 132 036 01639 0000000000
1743 1907N 06343W 01524 0075 238 035 154 154 036 01640 0000000000
1743. 1908N 06344W 01524 0075 241 035 160 160 035 01639 0000000000
1744 1909N 06345W 01523 0073 240 034 160 160 035 01636 0000000000
;

[Scorpion]

That report is old, CapeVerdeWave.