Tropical Storm Chris

[sealbach]

and the wobble/jog debate begins

[MiamiensisWx]

618
SXXX50 KNHC 021746
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 08 KNHC
1734. 1848N 06322W 01522 0090 190 043 126 126 046 01652 0000000000
1735 1849N 06324W 01523 0088 194 043 120 120 044 01652 0000000000
1735. 1850N 06325W 01524 0084 199 044 112 112 045 01649 0000000000
1736 1851N 06326W 01528 0084 200 045 120 120 047 01652 0000000000
1736. 1852N 06328W 01524 0083 208 042 128 128 043 01648 0000000000
1737 1853N 06329W 01522 0082 211 040 126 126 041 01645 0000000000
1737. 1854N 06331W 01526 0081 211 038 126 126 039 01648 0000000000
1738 1855N 06332W 01524 0081 219 035 134 134 040 01645 0000000000
1738. 1856N 06334W 01520 0082 233 033 150 150 034 01643 0000000000
1739 1857N 06335W 01527 0080 234 034 146 146 034 01647 0000000000
1739. 1858N 06336W 01528 0081 231 031 152 152 033 01650 0000000000
1740 1859N 06337W 01517 0080 234 033 146 146 034 01637 0000000000
1740. 1900N 06338W 01526 0078 232 033 158 158 035 01645 0000000000
1741 1902N 06339W 01522 0077 232 032 160 160 033 01639 0000000000
1741. 1903N 06340W 01526 0077 230 035 164 164 035 01644 0000000000
1742 1904N 06341W 01524 0076 234 033 158 158 033 01641 0000000000
1742. 1905N 06342W 01523 0075 239 034 132 132 036 01639 0000000000
1743 1907N 06343W 01524 0075 238 035 154 154 036 01640 0000000000
1743. 1908N 06344W 01524 0075 241 035 160 160 035 01639 0000000000
1744 1909N 06345W 01523 0073 240 034 160 160 035 01636 0000000000

[Derek Ortt]

based upon the sat and radar, 55KT may very well be right. However, I do expect the pressure to have fallen a little since morning

[MiamiensisWx]

Sorry, Scorpion... new one just posted.

[Eyewall]

yea i was gonna say 65 mph is more like it

[Scorpion]

Recon report is quite weak.

[mvtrucking]

From the sat images I am looking at, it is continuing WNW

Agreed. Looking wnw almost identical to the NHC forecast points.

Are the 18Z models out yet or will it be a bit?

[WindRunner]

[dwg71]

They should be near it in the next 10-15 minutes - I'm not expecting anything more than 60 - 65Kt flight level.

Why? If anything, it would be stronger than it was before.

I just dont see any real windfield strengthening since this morning. I could be wrong, but lets wait and see. Official prediciton 59KT flight level.

[Lowpressure]

I say a little more 69-72 at flight level.

[cycloneye]

The 2 PM advisory will be shortly up.Let's see if they wait for the first fix from Recon or they go ahead and release it without that.

[WindRunner]

Don't forget this is just the SE quad they are going through right now . . . strong, but still not as windy as Chris' NE quad.

[Derek Ortt]

Highest winds would be in NE quad

[HardCard]

all things considered, the updates are generally out by now.. i bet they are waiting on recon

[Blown Away]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

I know no 2 storms are the same, but historically a W or WNW track from Chris's location through the straits all the way into central/ west gulf is not that common.

[x-y-no]

The 2 PM advisory will be shortly up.Let's see if they wait for the first fix from Recon or they go ahead and release it without that.

They haven't even come close to the center yet, so I'm sure the advisory goes out without it.

[Scorpion]

True..so I guess 47 kts and not even in the worst part of the SE quad isnt that bad.

[Grease Monkey]

I'm thinking maybe it doesn't look much better organized, but now the winds are catching up with it's current organizational state, so in my opinion they should find increased winds.

[NONAME]

Derek do you think they will find 60Kt surface winds

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200603_climo.html

I know no 2 storms are the same, but historically a W or WNW track from Chris's location through the straits all the way into central/ west gulf is not that common.

no and every one of them reached the 27th paralell..