Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[robbielyn]

These models have been all over the place. NHC just changed track again...some sort of crazy S turn over Cuba as a TS then re-emerging as a hurricane.

Navy Wave model seems more logical considering the SAT loops are showing a continued drift that's more north than west...which would mean a clip hit off east Cuba, grab the slot and run the gulf stream north like a rat race. Broward might get a head on hit and east FL is gonna get buzz saw'd by wind and rain, but I'm not seeing a "Major" landfall here.

That does NOT mean, however, that residents of FL should let their guard down for one minute. This storm is acting like the guy that's standing in the subway muttering to himself...no telling what he's gonna do.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

Well the NHC has been pretty good the last couple of years and they will adjust as needed in time for people to do what they have to do to hunker down. I am thinking ft meyers

[Thatsmrhurricane]

My 8pm forecast: 75mph NW @ 10mph. Track shift East. Watches for Miami S. If not then at 11PM. This storm is getting its act together fast. Recon is finding better temp diff., plus better sat. presentation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[6SpeedTA95]

The CP is back up to 1003 or 1004mb's so land interaction has definately halted further development.

[Damar91]

The CP is back up to 1003 or 1004mb's so land interaction has definately halted further development.

Actually that's down from 1007 at the 2:00 advisory.

[6SpeedTA95]

The CP is back up to 1003 or 1004mb's so land interaction has definately halted further development.

Actually that's down from 1007 at the 2:00 advisory.

I thought the 2 advisory was just an estimate?

[craptacular]

173
SXXX50 KNHC 272109
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 40 KNHC
2059. 1836N 07533W 01524 0048 047 011 166 150 013 01604 0000000000
2100 1835N 07533W 01524 0048 046 010 166 150 012 01604 0000000000
2100. 1833N 07533W 01525 0048 040 009 166 150 010 01605 0000000000
2101 1831N 07533W 01524 0048 034 009 166 152 009 01605 0000000000
2101. 1829N 07534W 01524 0048 024 009 166 150 010 01605 0000000000
2102 1828N 07534W 01524 0048 012 010 166 146 010 01604 0000000000
2102. 1826N 07534W 01525 0047 006 011 166 144 012 01605 0000000000
2103 1824N 07534W 01525 0048 357 012 168 142 012 01605 0000000000
2103. 1822N 07534W 01523 0047 353 012 170 134 012 01603 0000000000
2104 1821N 07535W 01524 0046 351 012 164 148 013 01603 0000000000
2104. 1819N 07535W 01524 0047 349 012 170 138 013 01604 0000000000
2105 1817N 07535W 01523 0046 349 013 170 138 013 01602 0000000000
2105. 1816N 07535W 01525 0046 343 013 170 130 013 01604 0000000000
2106 1814N 07535W 01524 0046 340 013 170 136 013 01603 0000000000
2106. 1812N 07536W 01523 0045 338 014 170 134 014 01602 0000000000
2107 1810N 07536W 01524 0045 337 014 170 130 015 01603 0000000000
2107. 1809N 07536W 01525 0046 332 016 170 124 016 01604 0000000000
2108 1807N 07536W 01523 0046 331 017 170 126 017 01601 0000000000
2108. 1805N 07536W 01525 0046 334 017 170 128 017 01604 0000000000
2109 1803N 07537W 01523 0047 331 017 170 134 017 01602 0000000000
;

[storms in NC]

This is one crazy storm if you ask me. I wouldn't doubt any thing now. It is like throw you hands up and say I give up. You would wonder if they do have their own mine.

[bayoubebe]

These models have been all over the place. NHC just changed track again...some sort of crazy S turn over Cuba as a TS then re-emerging as a hurricane.

Navy Wave model seems more logical considering the SAT loops are showing a continued drift that's more north than west...which would mean a clip hit off east Cuba, grab the slot and run the gulf stream north like a rat race. Broward might get a head on hit and east FL is gonna get buzz saw'd by wind and rain, but I'm not seeing a "Major" landfall here.

That does NOT mean, however, that residents of FL should let their guard down for one minute. This storm is acting like the guy that's standing in the subway muttering to himself...no telling what he's gonna do.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

I wish when you all mention something like the above, ie, "NHC just changed track again...some sort of crazy S turn over Cuba as a TS then re-emerging as a hurricane." you would just go ahead and post THE NHC changed track.

Yea, I can look it up, but it would be helpful to show what you are referring to.

It's like posting a thread about an article that cnn just ran, without posting the link IMO.

thanks.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ernesto was briefly a hurricane this morning. Mid-level shear caused it to weaken for a couple hours today to a 60-mph tropical storm with a pressure of 1007 MB. However, as of the newest advisory, the pressure has dropped 3 MB and the storm appears to be trying to re-organize. Landfall into Cuba will likely happen sometime tomorrow. I predict it will strike the island in a similar manner to the way Dennis did last year, although much weaker. It will first clip the southeastern part tomorrow evening, and then make landfall further west on the island on Tuesday morning.

As for intensity prior to arrival in Cuba, despite Ernesto's weakening trend earlier today, the storm appears to be recovering now and the mid-level shear abating somewhat. I predict that these factors, combined with the warm Windward Passage waters, will allow for a re-intensification to hurricane status. If conditions are conducive enough, it may become a Category 2 hurricane.

If Ernesto follows my "forecast," I think he will spend about 12-24 hours over Cuba and weaken to no more than 60-65 mph.

As for my long-range forecast, keep in mind I am human too and my errors may be large. However, I will predict the storm to stay just west of the Keys while re-intensifying to a hurricane. Ernesto will then, in my opinion, be picked up by a trough while going through the weakness in the ridge that the models are seeing. I predict that Ernesto will strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane with winds around 100 mph before making landfall within 150 miles of the Tampa Bay area.

Residents of the Florida coast reading my "forecast," please do not focus simply on me saying "Tampa Bay area" and assuming I mean it will absolutely positively hit there. Notice I said "within 150 miles of" that area. I currently don't have an exact guess as to precisely where in Florida this storm could hit, so please everyone, prepare.

I will not, at this time, predict where it will go after landfall, but the East Coast will need to watch Ernesto too.

-Andrew92

[edbri871]

These models have been all over the place. NHC just changed track again...some sort of crazy S turn over Cuba as a TS then re-emerging as a hurricane.

Navy Wave model seems more logical considering the SAT loops are showing a continued drift that's more north than west...which would mean a clip hit off east Cuba, grab the slot and run the gulf stream north like a rat race. Broward might get a head on hit and east FL is gonna get buzz saw'd by wind and rain, but I'm not seeing a "Major" landfall here.

That does NOT mean, however, that residents of FL should let their guard down for one minute. This storm is acting like the guy that's standing in the subway muttering to himself...no telling what he's gonna do.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

Well the NHC has been pretty good the last couple of years and they will adjust as needed in time for people to do what they have to do to hunker down. I am thinking ft meyers

I hope not Ft Myers, we had a week without Power Last year with Wilma.

[HollynLA]

If anyone has looked at the latest coordinates, Ernie went twice as much westward than north from the previous advisory. Now, yes, this could be a wobble or stairstep, but it looks like the LLC is still moving in that general direction. For how long? I don't know but he was slightly SW of the last forecast point. If this becomes a trend, watch the models start moving back westward, possibly back towards the Big Bend area or possibly to Mobile, depending on how long this direction keeps up.

[6SpeedTA95]

The map I drew earlier, I had landfall between st marks and cross city FL

[Thatsmrhurricane]

N of forecast track even with the W jog.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[robbielyn]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ernesto was briefly a hurricane this morning. Mid-level shear caused it to weaken for a couple hours today to a 60-mph tropical storm with a pressure of 1007 MB. However, as of the newest advisory, the pressure has dropped 3 MB and the storm appears to be trying to re-organize. Landfall into Cuba will likely happen sometime tomorrow. I predict it will strike the island in a similar manner to the way Dennis did last year, although much weaker. It will first clip the southeastern part tomorrow evening, and then make landfall further west on the island on Tuesday morning.

As for intensity prior to arrival in Cuba, despite Ernesto's weakening trend earlier today, the storm appears to be recovering now and the mid-level shear abating somewhat. I predict that these factors, combined with the warm Windward Passage waters, will allow for a re-intensification to hurricane status. If conditions are conducive enough, it may become a Category 2 hurricane.

If Ernesto follows my "forecast," I think he will spend about 12-24 hours over Cuba and weaken to no more than 60-65 mph.

As for my long-range forecast, keep in mind I am human too and my errors may be large. However, I will predict the storm to stay just west of the Keys while re-intensifying to a hurricane. Ernesto will then, in my opinion, be picked up by a trough while going through the weakness in the ridge that the models are seeing. I predict that Ernesto will strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane with winds around 100 mph before making landfall within 150 miles of the Tampa Bay area.

Residents of the Florida coast reading my "forecast," please do not focus simply on me saying "Tampa Bay area" and assuming I mean it will absolutely positively hit there. Notice I said "within 150 miles of" that area. I currently don't have an exact guess as to precisely where in Florida this storm could hit, so please everyone, prepare.

I will not, at this time, predict where it will go after landfall, but the East Coast will need to watch Ernesto too.

-Andrew92

Shear didn't weaken ernie, interaction with land did.

[jenmrk]

I know that no one can answer where this thing is going right now, it is driving me nuts, I have very little knowledge of how the weather actually brings a storm to where it ends up, I am wondering at what point do they usually pinpoint a forecast that has less variables. I remember with Katrina we thought that we were a target close to 2 days out. I really can't imagine going through this flip/flopping all week ( but I that is a reality I am sure of).I feel like my head is about to explode. I am in Pensacola with a husband that sees South Fl so he thinks we are ok, am I correct in assuming that I need to pay attention to that GFDL model regardless of what others might say. I hope this is ok to post in this forum.

[NFLDART]

It should be noted that actual center of Ernesto has not made landfall and is just off of the SW coast of Haiti. Thus bearing out the NW component of movement. I believe what we are seeing is the interaction of the mountainous terrain with the northern convection coupled with the normal Diurnal fluctuations in intensity. Ernesto Could and should regroup somewhat as it clears Haiti.

[storms in NC]

N of forecast track even with the W jog.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

North and east of forcast track

[craptacular]

950
SXXX50 KNHC 272119
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 41 KNHC
2109. 1802N 07537W 01524 0046 327 017 170 134 018 01603 0000000000
2110 1800N 07537W 01524 0046 325 018 170 138 019 01603 0000000000
2110. 1758N 07537W 01524 0046 323 018 168 138 018 01603 0000000000
2111 1756N 07537W 01524 0047 323 019 170 136 019 01604 0000000000
2111. 1755N 07538W 01523 0046 322 019 168 138 020 01602 0000000000
2112 1753N 07538W 01525 0046 325 020 170 130 021 01603 0000000000
2112. 1751N 07538W 01524 0046 325 020 168 138 020 01603 0000000000
2113 1749N 07538W 01524 0047 328 020 166 144 020 01603 0000000000
2113. 1747N 07539W 01524 0047 330 019 162 146 019 01604 0000000000
2114 1746N 07539W 01524 0047 332 019 166 146 019 01604 0000000000
2114. 1744N 07539W 01523 0047 328 019 160 152 019 01603 0000000000
2115 1742N 07539W 01525 0046 329 019 160 150 019 01604 0000000000
2115. 1740N 07539W 01524 0047 327 019 164 146 019 01604 0000000000
2116 1739N 07540W 01524 0047 323 019 168 142 020 01604 0000000000
2116. 1737N 07540W 01523 0047 322 019 166 140 019 01604 0000000000
2117 1735N 07540W 01525 0047 322 019 166 146 020 01605 0000000000
2117. 1733N 07540W 01523 0047 318 017 164 154 017 01603 0000000000
2118 1732N 07540W 01525 0047 322 017 164 156 017 01605 0000000000
2118. 1730N 07541W 01524 0047 321 018 164 154 018 01604 0000000000
2119 1728N 07541W 01524 0048 319 017 162 150 017 01604 0000000000
;

[CrazyC83]

Right now I see 5 possible scenarios for Ernesto:

Scenario 1 - Worst-case scenario that one rogue model suggests. Pushes due west, brushing the southernmost lands of Cuba while mostly over water, allowing Ernesto to hold or strengthen. Then it moves into the open Gulf - likely as a Category 2 hurricane - and the Loop Current blows it up to a Category 4 or 5. Then it makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle most likely as Category 3.

Scenario 2 - Best-case scenario intensity-wise. Travels the length of Cuba almost, then turns north quickly into the Everglades and follows an Irene-like path, preventing significant intensification - Category 1 at the most.

Scenario 3 - NHC forecast path that takes it into the Florida Straits after weakening across Cuba, through the Keys and onto the western coast of Florida as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane most likely, before possibly crossing the peninsula in a Charley-like path.

Scenario 4 - As shown by several models, coming across eastern Cuba (only) then up into southeast Florida and towards Lake Okeechobee, likely as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. Such would be a highly unusual track.

Scenario 5 - What I think might happen now is that it misses Florida entirely, brushes eastern Cuba before moving northward into the Bahamas, paralleling Florida and either following the Gulf Stream to sea (5a) or into the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast as a solid hurricane (5b).

Right now I am leaning towards 5a which is also the best-case scenario for the US.

[Thunder44]

Correction: "2019z" plane position is actually for 2109z