Tropical Storm Alberto

[Evil Jeremy]

what are the chances of a South Florid hit?

[Weatherfreak14]

Right now its very possible. track is very uncertain right now.

[BigA]

From what I see, and this is of course somewhat suspect, the real center is somewhat to the northeast of the exposed swirld. This circulation is less exposed, but still way to the west of the deep thunderstorm activity.

[stormie_skies]

Great point Stormie, and what some have been trying to allude to, though coming on deaf ears. Once recon gets in there and finds the actual center, you can bet there will be some changes.

With that said, to this point it's hard to see this head anywhere except Florida unless there is a reformation of whatever center is out there.

Oh, no doubt. If I was a bettin' girl, Id be betting maybe a little west of the current track, but I wouldn't put my money any further west than the panhandle. So my point isn't that "it can still come here" .. LOL. I'm just saying that its prudent to hold on to the same level of skepticism in the models as the NHC has, especially when you have a weak system and no recon. You can't write a pinpoint landfall forecast for a system like this. So there's nothing wrong with a little speculation ... IMO

[Extremeweatherguy]

From what I see, and this is of course somewhat suspect, the real center is somewhat to the northeast of the exposed swirld. This circulation is less exposed, but still way to the west of the deep thunderstorm activity.

that is typical of depressions and weak storms. You usually do not see convection completely surrounding the swirl until it is beyond 60mph in intensity.

[Bgator]

From what I see, and this is of course somewhat suspect, the real center is somewhat to the northeast of the exposed swirld. This circulation is less exposed, but still way to the west of the deep thunderstorm activity.

BigA, I agree completely, and this is what i see also, there is some convection over the actual LLC at the moment, and it is moving North with some slight westerly motion, b ut not much...Here in Miami, im getting ready for a soking later today, our radar scraes me! Lol RAIN RAIN RAIN!

[Noles2006]

From what I see, and this is of course somewhat suspect, the real center is somewhat to the northeast of the exposed swirld. This circulation is less exposed, but still way to the west of the deep thunderstorm activity.

that is typical of depressions and weak storms. You usually do not see convection completely surrounding the swirl until it is beyond 60mph in intensity.

I'd prefer the landfall to be west of here, which would mean the landfall would have to move 100-200 miles to the west from the projected landfall. I'm not wishing a storm on my area, I'm wishing for some really beneficial rain from a weak, fast moving TS.

[Frank P]

From what I see, and this is of course somewhat suspect, the real center is somewhat to the northeast of the exposed swirld. This circulation is less exposed, but still way to the west of the deep thunderstorm activity.

looking at the vis sat loops I also think there is another LLC slightly NE of the naked vortex that's exposed... overall system looks to be moving NW to NNW as well... right now this system is pretty UGLY...

[mtm4319]

Anyone know how good the NGM model is?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/ngm/12/images/ngm_slp_048l.gif

Takes it to the Mobile/Pensacola area in just 48 hours.

[jrod]

Looking at the latest visible, an exposed LLC is going WSW toward the Yucatan. The blob of convection looks like it is moving mostly north. The LLC is probaly a temporary swirl obviously if the storm is going to get stronger a LLC must develop under the the convection. It will be interesting to see where the NHC puts the center on their next advisory.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If you look at this infrared loop...it looks like the center is now just off the NE tip of the Yucatan (about 50 miles west of where they said it was at 11am):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
^^You can see the convection curving around it^^

[Opal storm]

I say 50-60mph TS landfall in Apalachicola.Yeah I think tha track is going to shift just a tad more to the west.Don't think that trof is going to pick it up so soon enough to sweep it across S FL.

[ROCK]

If you look at this infrared loop...it looks like the center is now just off the NE tip of the Yucatan (about 50 miles west of where they said it was at 11am):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
^^You can see the convection curving around it^^

I see it however not sure if this IS the true center. I think this sheared mess has multiple centers...spitting out one as it tries to consolidate to its E-NE... the ULL and all that dry air is not helping matters.

[DESTRUCTION5]

If you look at this infrared loop...it looks like the center is now just off the NE tip of the Yucatan (about 50 miles west of where they said it was at 11am):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
^^You can see the convection curving around it^^

I see it however not sure if this IS the true center. I think this sheared mess has multiple centers...spitting out one as it tries to consolidate to its E-NE... the ULL and all that dry air is not helping matters.

Would not be surprised to see it discontinued after recon gets in...

[Steve]

Actually the storm doesn't look bad at all or ugly. It's a typcial June-type lopside storm that's doing what many of them do when faced with a little shear. I'm going out on a limb here and saying it actually looks pretty good for what it is.

>>nobody can deny extremeweatherguy has looked for any opening regarding a westerly track thus texas landfall, we shall see what happens.

You'd almost think he was a Floridian for every other storm in history. OMG, I still laugh at all the wobble posts in the wee hours when I can't sleep that people base off of IR Sat.

Me? Well no one asked, but I think there's a strong concensus with the models to guess it's going in somewhere south of Lake Cith and north of Cedar Point. If this is the case, it's likely only going to be a TS or Cat 1 which is all that usually ever hits in that area anyways.

Steve

[kenl01]

Looks like alot shear to me:

MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DOMINATE OVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM... AND INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE APPEARS UNLIKELY IN THAT ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN PEAKS AT 50 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF... GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS.

When putting this into the equation, I'd estimate a moderate TS at best with 55mph sustained winds and some heavy squalls of rain at landfall.

[HURAKAN]

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

The rain is close!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Actually the storm doesn't look bad at all or ugly. It's a typcial June-type lopside storm that's doing what many of them do when faced with a little shear. I'm going out on a limb here and saying it actually looks pretty good for what it is.

>>nobody can deny extremeweatherguy has looked for any opening regarding a westerly track thus texas landfall, we shall see what happens.

You'd almost think he was a Floridian for every other storm in history. OMG, I still laugh at all the wobble posts in the wee hours when I can't sleep that people base off of IR Sat.

Me? Well no one asked, but I think there's a strong concensus with the models to guess it's going in somewhere south of Lake Cith and north of Cedar Point. If this is the case, it's likely only going to be a TS or Cat 1 which is all that usually ever hits in that area anyways.

Steve

LOL. I was a Floridian up to about a year or so ago.

[Decomdoug]

Looks like it could be good news for Fla. Typical for June storms almost all precip is east of the center and it very heavily laden with moisture (Grand Cayman already has had 20 plus inches in 24 hrs). With any luck it could track more north drenching the entire state. Also, even if it does track on the initial forecast path the Carolinas won't have to deal with it because everything is east of center.

Yes,Much of the Floirida Penninsula has been on a deficit of precipitation and this will help in a big way to if not terminate the drought,to aliviate greatly that.

Deficit is an under statement. I hope the treasure coast gets some substancial rain from this system.

While West Palm and Vero Beach have had some decient rain showers in the last 30 days, Port St. Lucie has only had about .60" in the past couple of months. We haven't been able to buy rain. The ground under my lawn is dry like a desert.

Rain, Rain, Rain, (chanting!)

[wxwatcher91]

it does appear in the latest sat pic that the convection is beginning to wrap around... something... what ever it is, it IS close to where the estimated center was in the last advisory, so maybe this is the beginning of some organization