Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[O Town]

Looking better on that new Sat. image. It is fighting.

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 111214
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
B. 11/1131Z (39)
C. 24.1N/7
D. 87.8W/3
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/18HRS -11/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR

47A/ PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CENTER IS LOCATED
15NM SSW OF YIELDING AN UNREP DT OF T3.0. FT BASED
ON PT.

AODT: 2.6 (SHEAR)

KRAMER/CAPUTO



The Air Force is also up in their sat estimates.

[KWT]

I suppose despite less convection and being in a worse place you could say that actually TD-1 is better organised then last night, as least now the thing has got a proper LLC, whereas last night it had multiple centers now it seems to only have one main one.

[HURAKAN]

Station 42003 - E GULF 260 nm South of Panama City, FL
26.07 N 85.94 W

Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts

[dixiebreeze]

It's going to wrap folks. By nightfall, the NHC forecast will likely be verified.

[HURAKAN]

It's going to wrap folks. By nightfall, the NHC forecast will likely be verified.

Sounds like a scary movie!!!

[skysummit]

It's going to wrap folks. By nightfall, the NHC forecast will likely be verified.

Well shear better start relaxing real soon if it's going to wrap.

[O Town]

Convection is trying to wrap around the center

[brunota2003]

It's going to wrap folks. By nightfall, the NHC forecast will likely be verified.

Sounds like a scary movie!!!

my question though is...where will it go? with the new location a little further west should change the track, if even only slightly, and now that the models have some type of LLC to work with...what will they show?

[dixiebreeze]

NWS Forecast for this afternoon GOM:

TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 24N E OF 88W

TODAY THROUGH MON
WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER OF
DEPRESSION WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS
INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN 100 NM
E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER...WITH HIGHEST WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT
INCREASING TO 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT MON. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 175 NM NE QUADRANT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS 15 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN SQUALLS E OF 88W.

[HURAKAN]

[curtadams]

yes it is looking at TD 1...dead on...hmmm...wonder why they are up?

I think Dvorak estimates will have a really hard time with such an odd system.

[curtadams]

Still pretty close to track...Still a Florida hit at Tropical strom strenght...IMO

No - it's way off track. Run a loop with the trop pts on. It was supposed to move NNE over the past few hours but it moved W and now almost S! And the LLC is so detached from the convection you can track it on enhanced IR.

I don't see what you see...Its heading north right toward the next trop pt..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

You're looking at convection, not circulation. The circulation is so widely separated from convection you can spot the very obvious counterclockwise spin on regular IR http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
The circulation is around 23.5N 88W, just where recon has put it. Last few frames it's curving to the S.

[wxman57]

The center is definitlely nearly stationary and well west of the heavier convection. Here's a snapshot of GARP showing a ship 250 miles east of the center with a 35kt wind. I caution you that ships are notorious for reporting bad wind speeds, but it does show that max winds are well-removed from the center. This may be as close to Alberto as TD 1 ever gets, but I think the NHC would be hard-pressed to call it a TS at this time with squalls so removed from the center. Stranger things have happened, though. Wind shear will be increasing significantly over the next few days, so if it isn't classified a TS soon it probably never will be.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto17.gif

[drezee]

Keys Buoy hit a strong feeder band! It had a 59 kt max gust last hour! 68 mph
11/12 SANF1 24.1 -82.0 26.4 140 24 G 26 150 59 1012.7 0.6 * SANF1

[HURAKAN]

Now the NHC has to make a decision. Alberto or TD 1?

[jabber]

Yeah... I was looking at Key West and look its snowing

Wind from the S (180 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 KT) gusting to 48 MPH (42 KT)
Visibility 1/4 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Light snow
Fog
Precipitation last hour 0.39 inches
Temperature 75.0 F (23.9 C)
Dew Point 71.1 F (21.7 C)
Relative Humidity 87%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.92 in. Hg (1013 hPa)

Keys Buoy hit a strong feeder band! It had a 59 kt max gust last hour! 68 mph
11/12 SANF1 24.1 -82.0 26.4 140 24 G 26 150 59 1012.7 0.6 * SANF1

[WindRunner]

Just to make things a little more interesting, Key West was reporting light snow 15 minutes ago . . .

http://img125.imageshack.us/img125/1442/0611td1keywsnow1tz.png

[curtadams]

Now the NHC has to make a decision. Alberto or TD 1?

Yesterday they had a similar situation - TS winds but only in distant convection - and chose TD1. I'm expecting the same, especially since this thing does not look to get stronger.

[skysummit]

Just to make things a little more interesting, Key West was reporting light snow 15 minutes ago . . .

http://img125.imageshack.us/img125/1442/0611td1keywsnow1tz.png

Now that's freakin awesome! You never know what you'll get out of these tropical systems!