Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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Brent
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#2221 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:01 pm

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ENDED AROUND 00Z...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS
THE AIRCRAFT COULD FIND WERE 41 KT. THEY WERE UNABLE TO GET
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO LAND...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THEY DID
NOT SAMPLE THE STRONGEST WINDS. NEVERTHELESS...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT IS PROBABLY HIGH. IN GENERAL...THE
SATELLITE DEPICTION OF ERNESTO IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS EARLIER
IN THE DAY...WITH LITTLE BANDING AND CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE WARMED
SOMEWHAT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING OR THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGGRESSIVELY SHIFT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW ERNESTO TO MOVE IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...WITH THE
NOGAPS SHIFTING WESTWARD AND THE GFDL SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND BOTH
TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...AND THE
UKMET IS ON THE LEFT...JUST WEST OF THE KEYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS NOT MOVED MUCH AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHIFTS WHEN THE 00Z MODELS COME OUT...AS THEY
WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND
AN AIR FORCE C-130. A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE 500 MB DATA SHOWS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE BAHAMAS THAN FORECAST BY THE
GFS...SO I WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THE 00Z MODELS SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GREATLY COMPLICATED BY LAND INTERACTIONS
WITH CUBA. SHOULD ERNESTO NOT REGAIN MUCH ORGANIZATION BEFORE
REACHING CUBA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NOT A LOT WILL BE LEFT OF THE
CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ASSUME A VIGOROUS RESTRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND A SUBSTANTIAL CYCLONE SURVIVING THE PASSAGE OVER CUBA.
IN THIS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE...BUT
WELL ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 18.6N 74.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 19.6N 75.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 21.2N 77.6W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 29/1200Z 22.8N 79.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 81.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 27.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0000Z 31.0N 81.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 02/0000Z 35.0N 77.0W 50 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#2222 Postby SCUBAdude » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:07 pm

craptacular wrote:I downloaded the ReconExcel file from the storm2k recon page, but it asks for a password when you try to unprotect the sheets so that you can put in new data. Anyone know what it is? It's not blank.


I would also like to download the decoder but I can't seem to find the storm2k recon page. Could someone please direct me?
TIA.
SD.
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#2223 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:09 pm

SCUBAdude wrote:
craptacular wrote:I downloaded the ReconExcel file from the storm2k recon page, but it asks for a password when you try to unprotect the sheets so that you can put in new data. Anyone know what it is? It's not blank.


I would also like to download the decoder but I can't seem to find the storm2k recon page. Could someone please direct me?
TIA.
SD.


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=84098 8-)
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#2224 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:09 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 280300
AF304 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 01 KNHC
0251 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 266 230 000 00000 0000000000
0251. 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 264 230 000 00000 0000000000
0252 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 266 228 000 00000 0000000000
0252. 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 266 228 000 00000 0000000000
0253 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 266 226 000 00000 0000000000
0253. 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 266 226 000 00000 0000000000
0254 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 266 226 000 00000 0000000000
0254. 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 262 228 000 00000 0000000000
0255 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 262 228 000 00000 0000000000
0255. 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 266 228 000 00000 0000000000
0256 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 264 226 000 00000 0000000000
0256. 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 266 226 000 00000 0000000000
0257 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 266 224 000 00000 0000000000
0257. 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 266 224 000 00000 0000000000
0258 1742N 06448W 00000 5000 360 000 266 224 000 00000 0000000000
0258. 1742N 06448W 00000 5000 360 000 264 222 000 00000 0000000000
0259 1742N 06448W 00000 5001 360 000 266 224 000 00000 0000000000
0259. 1742N 06448W 00000 5001 360 000 264 228 000 00000 0000000000
0300 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 264 228 000 00000 0000000000
0300. 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 260 228 000 00000 0000000000

Plane is at runway ready to takeoff.

Anyone wants to post the obs from this mission?
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#2225 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:10 pm

If you show me how sure :)
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#2226 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:11 pm

Plane is at runway.
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#2227 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:12 pm

chris_fit wrote:If you show me how sure :)


http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/sta ... XXX50.KNHC

From here you take the set of obs every 10 minutes.
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#2228 Postby SCUBAdude » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:13 pm

I got it, many thanks.
SD.
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#2229 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:17 pm

Still On Runway!

803
SXXX50 KNHC 280311
AF304 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 02 KNHC
0301 1742N 06448W 00000 5000 360 000 264 228 000 00000 0000000000
0301. 1742N 06448W 00000 5001 360 000 266 230 000 00000 0000000000
0302 1742N 06448W 00000 5002 360 000 266 228 000 00000 0000000000
0302. 1742N 06448W 00000 5003 360 000 266 226 000 00000 0000000000
0303 1742N 06448W 00000 5002 360 000 266 224 000 00000 0000000000
0303. 1742N 06448W 00000 5002 360 000 266 226 000 00000 0000000000
0304 1742N 06448W 00000 5003 360 000 266 224 000 00000 0000000000
0304. 1742N 06448W 00000 5004 360 000 266 220 000 00000 0000000000
0305 1742N 06448W 00000 5005 360 000 266 220 000 00000 0000000000
0305. 1742N 06448W 00000 5006 360 000 264 222 000 00000 0000000000
0306 1742N 06448W 00000 5007 360 000 262 222 000 00000 0000000000
0306. 1742N 06448W 00000 5008 360 000 262 222 000 00000 0000000000
0307 1742N 06448W 00000 5009 360 000 260 218 000 00000 0000000000
0307. 1742N 06449W 00000 5011 360 000 260 216 000 00000 0000000000
0308 1742N 06449W 00001 5012 360 000 260 218 000 00000 0000000000
0308. 1742N 06449W 00003 5014 360 000 260 222 000 00000 0000000000
0309 1742N 06449W 00004 5015 360 000 260 226 000 00000 0000000000
0309. 1742N 06449W 00004 5015 360 000 260 224 000 00000 0000000000
0310 1742N 06449W 00004 5015 360 000 260 230 000 00000 0000000000
0310. 1742N 06449W 00004 5015 360 000 260 228 000 00000 0000000000
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#2230 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:18 pm

Whats a good decoder for this stuff? :)
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#2231 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:22 pm

chris_fit wrote:Whats a good decoder for this stuff? :)


In the recon discussion thread.. :wink:



http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=200
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#2232 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:25 pm

Plane Has Taken Off!


944
SXXX50 KNHC 280320
AF304 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 03 KNHC
0311 1742N 06449W 00007 5017 360 000 260 232 000 00000 0000000000
0311. 1742N 06449W 00005 5015 360 000 260 232 000 00000 0000000000
0312 1742N 06449W 00005 5016 360 000 260 224 000 00000 0000000000
0312. 1742N 06449W 00004 5015 360 000 260 230 000 00000 0000000000
0313 1742N 06449W 00002 5012 360 000 262 228 000 00000 0000000000
0313. 1742N 06449W 00008 5019 360 000 274 234 000 00000 0000000000
0314 1742N 06449W 00003 5014 360 000 274 236 000 00000 0000000000
0314. 1742N 06449W 00002 5013 360 000 266 226 000 00000 0000000000
0315 1742N 06449W 00005 5016 360 000 266 228 000 00000 0000000000
0315. 1742N 06449W 00005 5016 360 000 266 228 000 00000 0000000000
0316 1742N 06449W 00007 5018 360 000 266 228 000 00000 0000000000
0316. 1742N 06449W 00006 5017 051 002 258 234 004 00000 0000000000
0317 1742N 06448W 00057 5008 056 009 260 236 015 00060 0000000000
0317. 1742N 06447W 00258 0014 063 016 252 218 016 00283 0000000000
0318 1744N 06446W 00475 5004 077 017 230 210 018 00492 0000000000
0318. 1745N 06445W 00735 5043 083 018 212 186 018 00717 0000000000
0319 1746N 06444W 01086 0070 088 016 192 162 017 01188 0000000000
0319. 1748N 06444W 01385 0093 094 012 178 134 014 01518 0000000000
0320 1748N 06445W 01457 0098 081 013 168 126 013 01595 0000000000
0320. 1748N 06447W 01464 0097 078 013 170 122 013 01601 0000000000
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#2233 Postby craptacular » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:33 pm

gotoman38 wrote:as i recall, no need to unprotect the sheet - just paste the data in the blank area as per the instructions and the decoded text will be produced.


When I try to paste data into the white areas, I get the following message:

"The chart or cell you are trying to change is protected and therefore read-only."

Then it tells me to unprotect the sheets. When I try to do that, it asks for the password.

For example, on the RECCO tab, I tried copying three rows of data from the recon page, starting with the "URNT11", onto cell A1, and I get that error. Same problem with VORTEX, DROPSONDE, etc. :?: :?:
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#2234 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:36 pm

He was having problems with that in the earlier versions . . . what version do you have? 2.0.5 is the latest IIRC.
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#2235 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:37 pm

122
SXXX50 KNHC 280330
AF304 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 04 KNHC
0321 1747N 06449W 01449 0096 087 012 174 122 012 01585 0000000000
0321. 1747N 06451W 01461 0097 092 012 174 120 012 01598 0000000000
0322 1746N 06452W 01456 0096 086 012 174 120 012 01591 0000000000
0322. 1746N 06454W 01454 0095 096 009 180 112 009 01587 0000000000
0323 1745N 06456W 01465 0096 089 012 176 088 012 01598 0000000000
0323. 1745N 06458W 01615 0102 085 012 166 082 013 01757 0000000000
0324 1744N 06459W 01881 0119 079 013 144 102 013 02041 0000000000
0324. 1744N 06501W 02130 0133 074 015 134 066 016 02306 0000000000
0325 1743N 06503W 02414 0146 075 017 122 030 018 02608 0000000000
0325. 1742N 06505W 02685 0162 073 017 112 013 018 02896 0000000000
0326 1742N 06507W 02948 0178 075 016 094 037 017 03175 0000000000
0326. 1741N 06509W 03204 0198 077 015 076 075 016 03453 0000000000
0327 1741N 06510W 03448 0214 069 012 058 093 013 03712 0000000000
0327. 1740N 06512W 03659 0226 058 013 056 175 014 03937 0000000000
0328 1740N 06514W 03855 0239 080 011 062 253 013 04146 0000000000
0328. 1739N 06516W 04062 0254 090 010 052 251 010 04368 0000000000
0329 1739N 06518W 04246 0242 085 010 038 259 011 04566 0000000000
0329. 1738N 06520W 04437 0248 089 009 024 257 010 04772 0000000000
0330 1737N 06521W 04677 0275 065 009 010 315 010 05040 0000000000
0330. 1737N 06523W 04844 0290 055 009 007 223 010 05223 0000000000
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#2236 Postby craptacular » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:38 pm

Yup, 2.0.5 ... just downloaded it on my home computer the other day.
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#2237 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:38 pm

123
UZNT13 KNHC 280330
XXAA 78033 99280 70880 08188 99015 29043 06503 00133 27838 06503
92821 23049 33501 85554 18843 02502 70197 09649 06007 50592 05350
07014 40763 15936 08513 30974 30557 11516 88999 77999
31313 09608 80314
61616 AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 24
62626 SPL 2801N08803W 0325 MBL WND 03502 AEV 20604 DLM WND 07006
015372 WL150 07003 075 =
XXBB 78038 99280 70880 08188 00015 29043 11958 24415 22874 20257
33865 19437 44850 18843 55817 17039 66800 16258 77724 11442 88675
08657 99607 02828 11526 03550 22516 04533 33506 04756 44484 07145
55476 07760 66458 09757 77441 11561 88431 12537 99389 16746 11300
30557
21212 00015 06503 11850 02502 22550 10511 33506 06513 44474 07515
55442 05515 66416 08512 77384 08014 88372 11010 99300 11516
31313 09608 80314
61616 AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 24
62626 SPL 2801N08803W 0325 MBL WND 03502 AEV 20604 DLM WND 07006
015372 WL150 07003 075 =
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#2238 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:47 pm

599
SXXX50 KNHC 280340
AF304 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 05 KNHC
0331 1736N 06525W 04991 0301 050 011 015 161 012 05381 0000000000
0331. 1736N 06527W 05153 0313 031 012 027 107 013 05555 0000000000
0332 1735N 06529W 05304 0323 045 011 039 101 012 05717 0000000000
0332. 1735N 06531W 05430 0333 061 012 045 107 013 05853 0000000000
0333 1734N 06533W 05575 0344 062 010 057 121 011 06009 0000000000
0333. 1733N 06535W 05709 0353 062 011 069 113 012 06154 0000000000
0334 1733N 06536W 05835 0362 065 012 079 123 013 06289 0000000000
0334. 1732N 06538W 05971 0372 060 011 087 147 011 06435 0000000000
0335 1732N 06540W 06094 0379 054 011 093 173 012 06565 0000000000
0335. 1731N 06542W 06210 0381 055 011 097 203 011 06684 0000000000
0336 1730N 06544W 06322 0389 054 011 105 211 012 06805 0000000000
0336. 1730N 06546W 06428 0398 055 013 113 197 013 06920 0000000000
0337 1730N 06548W 06532 0405 066 012 121 221 013 07031 0000000000
0337. 1729N 06550W 06632 0411 073 012 123 243 012 07138 0000000000
0338 1729N 06553W 06722 0418 071 013 131 223 014 07235 0000000000
0338. 1729N 06555W 06815 0425 071 014 139 207 014 07336 0000000000
0339 1729N 06557W 06929 0433 073 009 143 213 010 07459 0000000000
0339. 1729N 06559W 07028 0440 075 008 151 221 008 07564 0000000000
0340 1729N 06601W 07098 0444 090 009 157 157 010 07639 0000000100
0340. 1729N 06603W 07180 0450 094 009 163 163 010 07728 0000000100
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#2239 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:49 pm

OK then, what version of Excel do you have?
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#2240 Postby craptacular » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:55 pm

WindRunner wrote:OK then, what version of Excel do you have?


2000. v9.0.2720
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