Tropical Storm Chris

[Toadstool]

Tropical Storm Chris to soak Leewards, has potential for something bigger

By Ken Kaye
sun-sentinel.com
Posted August 1 2006, 11:40 AM EDT

MIAMI -- Don't look now, but Tropical Storm Chris emerged in the Atlantic near the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and its initial path takes it toward South Florida, with the system near our doorstep on Sunday.

The good news: For now, the National Hurricane Center projects that it will remain a tropical storm with maximum winds of 60 mph. Also, long-range predictions hint that the system will turn south just before it reaches South Florida. Several computer models aim the system well to the south, across Cuba.



The bad news: Five-day projections can hold large errors, and it's possible it will continue in this direction and swell into a hurricane.

"Obviously, that can't be ruled out," said Dave Roberts, a Navy meteorologist assigned to the hurricane center, which is in Miami-Dade County.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -news-sfla

It needs to go south like the models show!

[Air Force Met]

The only time he says "Houston, we have a problem" is usually when a system is going to potentially be a threat to the western Gulf. He said the same thing before Rita.

As for you saying that I want Houston to have a problem...that is incorrect. I very much do not want Houston to have a problem. I am just very worried, because this system could potentially be taking a dangerous track that could bring it into the GOM and potentially then toward the west or central Gulf after that (which includes Corpus Christi, Houston, Lake Charles, New Orleans, Biloxi, etc. all of which do not need a storm).

1) I have heard him use this phrase several times before...and yes he used it for Rita...but I have heard him use it for east coast storms as well. It's a GENERIC phrase...and it doesn't necessarily mean Houston....especially since he was not talking about TRACK...but INTENSITY when he said it!

2)...EWG...don't give me "the I don't want it." Let's keep it real. When it comes to wanting things to happen and develop...whether it is winter weather or tropical systems...you are on the top of the chart when it comes to letting desire cloud judgment.

Need I remind you of all the discussions last winter? Now...I am not saying you wish-cast it...but you get excited and that clouds your judgment...and I think you kow it. I can't tell you how many discussions we had about 850mb temps last winter and how worthless they are in predicting snow...but you kept on wishing and posting. Now...let's at least be honest.

Dad used to say "you lie to your friends and I'll lie to mine...but let's not lie to each other."

[HouTXmetro]

Dad used to say "you lie to your friends and I'll lie to mine...but let's not lie to each other."

[jasons2k]

AFM - keepin' it real

I can already "predict" what the next reply will be. Maybe I should've been a shrink.

[curtadams]

Quickscat last night indicated both areas of convection had storm-relative but NOT formally closed circulations. My guess is that the sheared updraft from the forming storm reactivated the wave axis to its east, which had been quiescent for a day, and that developed into a storm of its own. The SW (and older) circulation is now formally closed, and neither radar nor Quickscat has seen the NE circulation. However, I'm confident that it's still there, which means Chris is really two nearby storms. The two are appear to be Fujiwaraing each other, as the NE circulation started to the south of the old circulation, and I see slow rotation on AVN. WXman57's low is more or less the center of the two storms but there's nothing much going on there. I would guess that the two storms will interfere with each other and so Chris will weaken but maybe somebody actually knows what happens when storms interact like this. Low cloud circulation is weakening rapidly - it's the reverse of the boom yesterday.

So you telling me we have Chris and Debby?

I wouldn't call it that. It's one event, even if it ended up with two centers of circulation. And the two will probably merge, if they survive. Yesterday I thought Chris started off as the weakest tropical storm ever and today i think it's more like the strongest depression ever. Certainly not two separate storms.

[Stratosphere747]

Spot on AFM! Spot on.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

The only time he says "Houston, we have a problem" is usually when a system is going to potentially be a threat to the western Gulf. He said the same thing before Rita.

As for you saying that I want Houston to have a problem...that is incorrect. I very much do not want Houston to have a problem. I am just very worried, because this system could potentially be taking a dangerous track that could bring it into the GOM and potentially then toward the west or central Gulf after that (which includes Corpus Christi, Houston, Lake Charles, New Orleans, Biloxi, etc. all of which do not need a storm).

1) I have heard him use this phrase several times before...and yes he used it for Rita...but I have heard him use it for east coast storms as well. It's a GENERIC phrase...and it doesn't necessarily mean Houston....especially since he was not talking about TRACK...but INTENSITY when he said it!

2)...EWG...don't give me "the I don't want it." Let's keep it real. When it comes to wanting things to happen and develop...whether it is winter weather or tropical systems...you are on the top of the chart when it comes to letting desire cloud judgment.

Need I remind you of all the discussions last winter? Now...I am not saying you wish-cast it...but you get excited and that clouds your judgment...and I think you kow it. I can't tell you how many discussions we had about 850mb temps last winter and how worthless they are in predicting snow...but you kept on wishing and posting. Now...let's at least be honest.

Dad used to say "you lie to your friends and I'll lie to mine...but let's not lie to each other."

well when it comes to winter weather, I admit that I do get excited (probably because I lived in central FL for many years with no winter weather to speak of). I did go overboard last winter thinking that something may of happened, and in the end all I received were a few sleet pellets and two days with highs below 40F.

When it comes to tropical systems though, it is different. I like nice TDs or TSs that have little affect on your area, but after going through Charley, Frances, Jeanne, and Rita over the last two years I don't mess with hurricanes. Any hurricane threat to my immediate area is alarming and I certainly am not wishing the storm to come to me. Hopefully this storm will miss the area (or dissipate), but just the fact that it has a chance is getting me wanting to follow this one with an extra level of concern.

[HouTXmetro]

Ohh he looks sick, but I'm sure the convection will refire. Check out this loop where you can see the ULL moving west.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Also, when should we expect convection to reflare? Are we currently dealing with a dirunial minimun right now?

[brunota2003]

I'm confused about the two upper level lows...is the second one they are talking about over Alabama? I see anticyclonic circ dropping out of Eastern NC/SC, I see the upper level low over the Bahamas...but the only other ULL I see is over near Mississippi/Al area...both lows are drifting west it appears to me:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Ohh he looks sick, but I'm sure the convection will refire. Check out this loop where you can see the ULL moving west.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Also, when should we expect convection to reflare? Are we currently dealing with a dirunial minimun right now?

I see it moving almost stationary...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

[gatorcane]

I think the system doesn't look that bad at all - in fact I think we will see some diurnal convection blowing up probably later tonight.

Let's just look at the facts. It's August and we have a TS on a projected beeline path through the Bahamas towards the US and possible South Florida, Puerto Rico first. It has plenty of water in front of it and the Bermuda High is building in that will prevent a turn.

We can look at the ULLs and the stearing currents and the projected shear etc but something really tells me Chris could become a formidable hurricane. I simply don't like what I am seeing here at all.

[HouTXmetro]

Ohh he looks sick, but I'm sure the convection will refire. Check out this loop where you can see the ULL moving west.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Also, when should we expect convection to reflare? Are we currently dealing with a dirunial minimun right now?

I see it moving almost stationary...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

You talking about the ULL over the Bahamas? apply the Lat/Lon grids, it's moving west.

[Stratosphere747]

I don't understand - why would they cancel the G - IV mission?

I'm wondering this too..

These are the missions to test the atmosphere ahead of the system, correct?

[AJC3]

I'm confused about the two upper level lows...is the second one they are talking about over Alabama? I see anticyclonic circ dropping out of Eastern NC/SC, I see the upper level low over the Bahamas...but the only other ULL I see is over near Mississippi/Al area...both lows are drifting west it appears to me:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

The two lows being mentioned are located near 20N53W and 25N72W. The GFS has been suggesting that Chris may try to snuggle in between these two systems as they all move westward as sort of a TUTT-TC-TUTT choo-choo train.

[curtadams]

Ohh he looks sick, but I'm sure the convection will refire. Check out this loop where you can see the ULL moving west.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Also, when should we expect convection to reflare? Are we currently dealing with a dirunial minimun right now?

No, judging by Martinique radar, the LLCs are merging. The MLCs over the old LLCs are no longer getting "fed" since their LLCs are weak and they're feeling that dry air around them. Convection will have to refire from the new LLC you can see on RGB. There's no guarantee it will.

[wxmann_91]

Currently Chris is in an unfavorable position. If it was located just to the east, it would be situated in a favorable position characterized by strong UL divergence in a relatively low shear environment. Right now though it is being bombarded by shear, evident in the shear maps.

Here are the two ULL's...




(BTW, 99L is Chris, still somewhat asleep this morning, I didn't bother to change it after I had already uploaded it and realized it.)

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm confused about the two upper level lows...is the second one they are talking about over Alabama? I see anticyclonic circ dropping out of Eastern NC/SC, I see the upper level low over the Bahamas...but the only other ULL I see is over near Mississippi/Al area...both lows are drifting west it appears to me:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

The two lows being mentioned are located near 20N53W and 25N72W. The GFS has been suggesting that Chris may try to snuggle in between these two systems as they all move westward as sort of a TUTT-TC-TUTT choo-choo train.

I noticed that on the GFS run also... What is the likelyhood that things will fall into place like that for this system? Also What stears upper level lows?

[HouTXmetro]

Ohh he looks sick, but I'm sure the convection will refire. Check out this loop where you can see the ULL moving west.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Also, when should we expect convection to reflare? Are we currently dealing with a dirunial minimun right now?

No, judging by Martinique radar, the LLCs are merging. The MLCs over the old LLCs are no longer getting "fed" since their LLCs are weak and they're feeling that dry air around them. Convection will have to refire from the new LLC you can see on RGB. There's no guarantee it will.

You have a link to the radar?

[wxman57]

You have a link to the radar?

Martinique Radar:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

...and I see no evidence of 2 centers on radar or satellite. Just one center with 2 blobs of convection.

[Extremeweatherguy]

You have a link to the radar?

Martinique Radar:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

...and I see no evidence of 2 centers on radar or satellite. Just one center with 2 blobs of convection.

same here. looks like one center.