Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[Thunder44]

The storm is not as well organized and strong as it seemed. Maybe see a downgrade to windspeeds in the next advisory.

I doubt it. If they downgraded it, it would only be to 50kt (60mph), but they still have a lot of flying to go.

The pressure is 4mb higher than TPC has in their advisory and the center is still broad and diffuse. So far they have only found winds that support only 55mph intensity.

[Evil Jeremy]

On the next set they found 61kts.

surface?

[Thunder44]

641
UZNT13 KNHC 090431
XXAA 5904/ 99239 70615 07931 99999 26001 13525 00505 ///// 92683
23800 85421 20801 88999 77999
31313 09608 80412
61616 AF308 0206A FLORENCE OB 06
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2394N06149W 0416 AEV 20604 DLM WND 14027 99998
6 WL150 14027 075 =
XXBB 59048 99239 70615 07931 00999 26001 11850 20801 22844 20602
33840 16400
21212 00999 13525 11986 14029 22840 14039
31313 09608 80412
61616 AF308 0206A FLORENCE OB 06
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2394N06149W 0416 AEV 20604 DLM WND 14027 99998
6 WL150 14027 075 =
Decode please?

It's in rainband, pressure is 999mb and surface winds 25kts. That's all I can decode.

[CrazyC83]

On the next set they found 61kts.

surface?

That is 49kt on the surface.

[SouthFloridawx]

AF308 0206A FLORENCE HDOB 17 KNHC
0429. 2432N 06049W 01525 0004 123 050 190 152 050 01568 0000000000
0430 2433N 06048W 01523 0005 121 051 192 132 051 01568 0000000000
0430. 2434N 06046W 01528 0007 119 050 190 134 050 01575 0000000000
0431 2436N 06045W 01524 0008 118 050 184 148 050 01572 0000000000
0431. 2437N 06043W 01525 0010 118 050 182 156 050 01574 0000000000
0432 2438N 06042W 01513 0009 119 048 182 162 049 01563 0000000000
0432. 2439N 06041W 01525 0009 117 047 182 164 048 01575 0000000000
0433 2441N 06040W 01524 0010 116 046 182 166 046 01574 0000000000
0433. 2442N 06038W 01526 0011 116 047 178 168 047 01577 0000000000
0434 2443N 06037W 01524 0011 117 047 180 164 047 01575 0000000000
0434. 2444N 06036W 01526 0012 118 047 180 170 047 01579 0000000000
0435 2445N 06035W 01526 0013 118 045 180 168 046 01579 0000000000
0435. 2446N 06034W 01524 0014 118 045 174 174 045 01577 0000000000
0436 2447N 06033W 01527 0015 119 046 180 170 047 01582 0000000000
0436. 2448N 06031W 01525 0016 120 047 184 168 047 01581 0000000000
0437 2449N 06030W 01525 0017 122 047 180 170 047 01582 0000000000
0437. 2450N 06029W 01525 0018 124 047 176 172 048 01583 0000000000
0438 2451N 06028W 01526 0018 126 048 180 172 048 01584 0000000000
0438. 2452N 06027W 01524 0019 125 048 178 174 048 01584 0000000000
0439 2453N 06025W 01527 0020 124 046 174 174 047 01588 0000000000

[deltadog03]

dang...VDM is much further SW of nhc positions

[Thunder44]

On the next set they found 61kts.

surface?

That is 49kt on the surface.

That equals to about 56mph.

[Kerry04]

dang...VDM is much further SW of nhc positions

so what does this means?

[deltadog03]

prolly not much...however...it may mean its re organized or maybe jogged w or wnw...not sure..

[Evil Jeremy]

On the next set they found 61kts.

surface?

That is 49kt on the surface.

That equals to about 56mph.

wait untill they get into the storms strongest area!

[Thunder44]

On the next set they found 61kts.

surface?

That is 49kt on the surface.

That equals to about 56mph.

wait untill they get into the storms strongest area!

Well they are already in the NE Quad, which should be the strongest.

[SouthFloridawx]

prolly not much...however...it may mean its re organized or maybe jogged w or wnw...not sure..

The NHC center was off because the VDM said Broad and diffuse center. For the past day or so they have been commenting on how hard it has been to pin-point an exact center. With recon in there it's much easier to do.

[deltadog03]

thats true.

[Thunder44]

428
SXXX50 KNHC 090453
AF308 0206A FLORENCE HDOB 18 KNHC
0439. 2455N 06024W 01523 0020 124 048 176 176 049 01584 0000000000
0440 2456N 06023W 01526 0021 125 049 176 170 049 01588 0000000000
0440. 2457N 06022W 01523 0022 124 049 176 174 049 01585 0000000000
0441 2458N 06021W 01527 0023 125 048 176 176 049 01590 0000000000
0441. 2459N 06020W 01525 0024 122 047 176 170 048 01589 0000000000
0442 2500N 06018W 01530 0024 122 047 176 164 047 01594 0000000000
0442. 2501N 06017W 01526 0027 122 048 176 166 049 01592 0000000000
0443 2502N 06016W 01523 0026 121 045 176 176 048 01590 0000000000
0443. 2503N 06015W 01521 0027 123 046 178 166 048 01588 0000000000
0444 2504N 06014W 01525 0027 125 046 172 172 047 01592 0000000000
0444. 2506N 06012W 01525 0027 123 046 170 170 047 01592 0000000000
0445 2507N 06011W 01525 0028 125 046 172 168 047 01593 0000000000
0445. 2508N 06010W 01534 0029 126 043 170 166 044 01603 0000000000
0446 2509N 06009W 01529 0031 125 044 176 162 044 01601 0000000000
0446. 2510N 06007W 01527 0033 126 044 174 160 045 01600 0000000000
0447 2512N 06006W 01525 0033 127 044 176 160 044 01598 0000000000
0447. 2513N 06004W 01525 0034 126 043 174 150 044 01598 0000000000
0448 2514N 06003W 01526 0034 127 044 176 152 044 01600 0000000000
0448. 2516N 06001W 01523 0035 125 043 174 168 044 01598 0000000000
0449 2517N 06000W 01527 0036 124 043 172 162 044 01603 0000000000

[Evil Jeremy]

this can affect the cone.

[SouthFloridawx]

[CrazyC83]

Now they are at the periphery.

[Thunder44]

They probably won't downgrade to 55mph at 2am advisory, because if this is not strengthing this morning, they will have to use 50kt (60mph) at 5am advisory, and that makes it's look like it's strengthening again.

[Derek Ortt]

the SW position changes nothing regarding track... but could be good news for Newfoundland as this means Florence has more ocean to travel before reaching them, meaning a better chance at an eastward turn

[Bailey1777]

What's the heading right now?