Tropical Storm Chris

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jasons2k
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#2461 Postby jasons2k » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:09 pm

1007mb? Is that right?
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#2462 Postby Aquawind » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:09 pm

Well that pressure needs to drop for an eye. Let's see what the next vortex brings.. 1005mb is high for an eye.. I am thinking the pressure is dropping..not that fast though..
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MiamiensisWx

#2463 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:09 pm

Flight-level winds just reported at about 51KT.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2464 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:09 pm

I think it is 1005mb.
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#2465 Postby Damar91 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:10 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:
Damar91 wrote:Where do you get these estimates?
Well it was T3.9 but its T3.5 now. And you can get the numbers from: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt1.html


Thanks!
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#2466 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:10 pm

Will have to restart my computer. Will be back in 10-15 mins, but someone might need to post the next set for me.
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#2467 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:10 pm

But the pressure went up, probably due to another outflow boundry, altho i think its gonna start dropping in pressure in the 8pm advisory
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#2468 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:10 pm

Well I may have missed it before so forgive me but, it looks like the UKMET has chimed in on this one.

Image

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.08.2006



TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 63.7W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032006



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 02.08.2006 19.3N 63.7W MODERATE

00UTC 03.08.2006 20.4N 64.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.08.2006 21.5N 67.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.08.2006 22.4N 69.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.08.2006 23.4N 72.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.08.2006 23.8N 74.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.08.2006 24.9N 77.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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#2469 Postby Aquawind » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:11 pm

Looks like it.. some reality..lol
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#2470 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:11 pm

remember it takes time to reflect storms that are new...winds that is.
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Derek Ortt

#2471 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:12 pm

no surprise, the pressure has risen further
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#2472 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:12 pm

pressure is temporarily up to 1007mb, but winds around the center seem stronger. Many 40-55 knot readings around the center. Earlier these readings were in the 15-35 knot range (with the strongest winds well removed to the NE).
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#2473 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:13 pm

Well it looks like Chris is going to be unpredictable.He'll be a cane before Friday.Probably in the next 8 hours or less :eek:
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#2474 Postby tgenius » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:14 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:no surprise, the pressure has risen further


Derek, do you feel that the storm is intensifying or its getting the shear ripping into it?
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#2475 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:14 pm

So Chris is still weakening?
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#2476 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:15 pm

One of the vortex messages had 1007mbs earlier too.
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#2477 Postby stormtruth » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:15 pm

It doesn't look like it is getting weaker.
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#2478 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:15 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:So Chris is still weakening?
Doubt it. Winds around the immediate center are higher than they were earlier.
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#2479 Postby WindRunner » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:16 pm

Drop in the eye:

UZNT13 KNHC 022208
XXAA 52228 99198 70643 04394 99007 27416 36012 00059 26814 00513
92745 22614 00519 85489 25464 02007 88999 77999
31313 09608 82146
61616 AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 1979N06435W 2149 MBL WND 01514 AEV 20604 DLM WND 01
016 007860 WL150 00513 075 =
XXBB 52228 99198 70643 04394 00007 27416 11934 22200 22919 23831
33899 23034 44869 26664 55850 25464 66845 25664 77842 23463
21212 00007 36012 11960 02015 22941 01513 33915 35519 44891 00526
55879 01021 66870 02511 77860 02509 88842 36005
31313 09608 82146
61616 AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 1979N06435W 2149 MBL WND 01514 AEV 20604 DLM WND 01
016 007860 WL150 00513 075 =

1007mb, 12kt wind.
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caneman

#2480 Postby caneman » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:16 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:no surprise, the pressure has risen further


You know Derek you do a great job but it would really be nice when you make comments like this just to add a few words to let the novices in on what you know. :D
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