Tropical Storm Chris

[Grease Monkey]

The giant is just resting his eyes right now. Wait till he wakes up.

[Derek Ortt]

I dont know what those who are saying it is intensifying are seeing, when all of the data shows weakening (satellite outflow boundaries, rising pressure, etc)

[WindRunner]

And don't forget . . .

[HurricaneHunter914]

Chris might be down to 50 mph by the 8 pm, right Derek?

[MiamiensisWx]

281
SXXX50 KNHC 022216
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 35 KNHC
2204. 1911N 06341W 01525 0089 197 039 116 116 041 01654 0000000000
2205 1910N 06340W 01526 0090 195 042 136 134 043 01657 0000000000
2205. 1909N 06339W 01527 0091 196 041 144 128 044 01659 0000000000
2206 1908N 06338W 01525 0094 196 040 150 126 040 01659 0000000000
2206. 1907N 06337W 01525 0094 195 042 146 122 043 01659 0000000000
2207 1906N 06336W 01524 0093 194 045 148 114 045 01658 0000000000
2207. 1905N 06335W 01526 0093 194 046 144 112 046 01660 0000000000
2208 1904N 06334W 01527 0095 195 047 142 114 047 01662 0000000000
2208. 1903N 06333W 01524 0095 196 045 142 118 047 01660 0000000000
2209 1902N 06332W 01526 0095 198 044 134 120 045 01662 0000000000
2209. 1901N 06331W 01524 0096 198 043 138 118 045 01660 0000000000
2210 1900N 06330W 01526 0098 200 041 144 116 041 01665 0000000000
2210. 1859N 06329W 01525 0099 200 039 146 118 040 01665 0000000000
2211 1858N 06328W 01526 0100 203 038 146 116 038 01667 0000000000
2211. 1857N 06326W 01525 0100 204 038 146 112 039 01666 0000000000
2212 1856N 06325W 01525 0101 204 036 148 126 037 01667 0000000000
2212. 1855N 06324W 01525 0102 204 037 150 100 037 01668 0000000000
2213 1854N 06323W 01525 0102 199 035 152 104 035 01667 0000000000
2213. 1853N 06322W 01526 0103 198 034 156 094 034 01669 0000000000
2214 1851N 06321W 01525 0103 195 033 152 094 034 01669 0000000000

[Extremeweatherguy]

I dont know what those who are saying it is intensifying are seeing, when all of the data shows weakening (satellite outflow boundaries, rising pressure, etc)

so what are you saying? do you think Chris is just going to die and become nothing, or do you still think this will become a hurricane?

[ericinmia]

18Z NOGAPS..... at 78 hours.



Shows a pretty strong hurricane... lopsided though

[HurricaneHunter914]

You know Derek, but no offense, you first thought Chris when he was 99L had only a 10-15% chance at becoming a TD, but now its close to hurricane strength.

[deltadog03]

to update that pic...anyone with GR3 or can see the radar out of PR, can see its almost a ring now.

[Grease Monkey]

You know Derek, but no offense, you first thought Chris when he was 99L had only a 10-15% chance at becoming a TD, but now its close to hurricane strength.

ouch.

[stormtruth]

I dont know what those who are saying it is intensifying are seeing, when all of the data shows weakening (satellite outflow boundaries, rising pressure, etc)

The storm getting larger in size and the blow-up in convection. The data so far is trivial -- its lost what 5mph? And the pressure has barely risen. Not even significant. It will undue all that quickly when it tightens up again tonight.

[max]

to update that pic...anyone with GR3 or can see the radar out of PR, can see its almost a ring now.

I am seeing the same thing you are. You can tell Chris is more of a round shape like it was last night. Maybe it will get the buzz saw look again ?

[Extremeweatherguy]

One thing I am noticing is that they are finding MANY more 40 knot+ FL winds. This was not the case earlier. Also, it looks like the storm has better outflow on the visible loops.

[mtm4319]

Last three vortex positions:

[Stratusxpeye]

Derek, Were you not just posting that you saw this inteifying? I went back to try to find the post but don't know what thread it was in. While back in this thread there was also a post about you agreeing on strengthening about outflow. So is the storm intensifying you think or weakening? I'm confused. Looks intensifying to me based on the latest visible.

[Derek Ortt]

This storm should intensify and become a cane as early as tomorrow, but it is not now

It's amazing that the mets can say one thing, but some non-mets are so quick to disagree if they are not syaing an intensifying system

[WindRunner]

You know Derek, but no offense, you first thought Chris when he was 99L had only a 10-15% chance at becoming a TD, but now its close to hurricane strength.

So what? Derek isn't perfect. None of us are. You shouldn't call him out based on what he forecasted, as he has more skill than at least 95% of the people on this board, and we know that. The fact that he, as a pro met, made a bad forecast shouldn't matter, as there were plenty of other people on the board that thought or said the same. Calling him out like this was really unnecessary.

[Derek Ortt]

Let me state is clearly

THIS WILL INTENSIFY, IT IS JUST NOT DOING SO YET

[mtm4319]

222
SXXX50 KNHC 022226
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 36 KNHC
2214. 1850N 06320W 01526 0104 191 033 152 088 034 01670 0000000000
2215 1849N 06319W 01525 0103 192 033 156 082 034 01668 0000000000
2215. 1848N 06318W 01525 0103 194 031 152 096 032 01669 0000000000
2216 1847N 06317W 01526 0104 194 030 154 096 030 01671 0000000000
2216. 1846N 06316W 01525 0105 194 029 156 100 030 01671 0000000000
2217 1845N 06315W 01526 0105 197 031 160 082 031 01671 0000000000
2217. 1844N 06314W 01525 0105 200 029 156 086 030 01671 0000000000
2218 1843N 06313W 01525 0106 205 029 154 090 030 01672 0000000000
2218. 1842N 06311W 01526 0107 202 028 158 088 029 01673 0000000000
2219 1841N 06310W 01525 0107 204 025 152 122 026 01673 0000000000
2219. 1840N 06309W 01527 0108 205 024 150 134 025 01676 0000000000
2220 1839N 06308W 01524 0108 208 022 150 144 023 01673 0000000000
2220. 1838N 06307W 01525 0109 206 021 152 142 021 01675 0000000000
2221 1837N 06306W 01523 0107 197 020 128 128 021 01670 0000000000
2221. 1836N 06305W 01526 0108 200 024 148 144 026 01675 0000000000
2222 1834N 06304W 01529 0109 195 024 148 130 024 01678 0000000000
2222. 1833N 06303W 01526 0110 194 023 150 144 024 01676 0000000000
2223 1832N 06301W 01523 0110 195 023 150 146 023 01675 0000000000
2223. 1831N 06300W 01527 0110 196 021 152 128 022 01678 0000000000
2224 1830N 06259W 01524 0111 198 021 152 132 021 01675 0000000000
;

[Toadstool]

Well I may have missed it before so forgive me but, it looks like the UKMET has chimed in on this one.

Can I ask, am I the only one that is puzzled by the XTRAP being included in every plot? It's not a forecast (in fact, it usually is the opposite). Why do they include it with the models?