Tropical Storm Chris

[Aquawind]

1007mb.. not even close to an eye.. I thought the deep convection over the center alone would drop it and notta..

[Extremeweatherguy]

1007mb.. not even close to an eye.. I thought the deep convection over the center alone would drop it and notta..

well not yet. This should change overnight though, and this should become a hurricane tomorrow.

[mtm4319]

[stormtruth]

Let me state is clearly

THIS WILL INTENSIFY, IT IS JUST NOT DOING SO YET

you don't have to shout

[Stratusxpeye]

Let me state is clearly

THIS WILL INTENSIFY, IT IS JUST NOT DOING SO YET

Whoa sorry was just going but the previous posts I read. Not responding anymore i can see the hostile environment in this forum due to Chris. Ill leave my opinions to myself. Didn't mean to upset ya.

[CronkPSU]

You know Derek, but no offense, you first thought Chris when he was 99L had only a 10-15% chance at becoming a TD, but now its close to hurricane strength.

So what? Derek isn't perfect. None of us are. You shouldn't call him out based on what he forecasted, as he has more skill than at least 95% of the people on this board, and we know that. The fact that he, as a pro met, made a bad forecast shouldn't matter, as there were plenty of other people on the board that thought or said the same. Calling him out like this was really unnecessary.

agree 100%

why piss off someone who has been so helpful for no reason other than to give us amateurs a sense of what is actually going on

[ALhurricane]

This storm should intensify and become a cane as early as tomorrow, but it is not now

It's amazing that the mets can say one thing, but some non-mets are so quick to disagree if they are not syaing an intensifying system

I agree 100%. If a pro met says anything about a storm weakening, not looking good at satellite, etc., some take it like it was a personal attack and they get very defensive.

We call it like we see it, using our knowledge of the science. Don't take it like we are personally insulting your family.

[stormtruth]

It is intensifying tho. Continuing to look better. The recon is primarily focusing on the sw side of the storm because that is the only part near any land right now.

[Aquawind]

I did think the Deep convection popping over the center would drop the pressure alone.. Not happening..

[Andrew92]

Let me state is clearly

THIS WILL INTENSIFY, IT IS JUST NOT DOING SO YET

AGREED! It may weaken to 50 mph tonight, but it's going through a phase of weakening currently right now. But once it gets through it, everyone needs to watch out. I still think this is going to be a hurricane, but it will take time people, so be patient.

-Andrew92

[skufful]

Well I may have missed it before so forgive me but, it looks like the UKMET has chimed in on this one.

Can I ask, am I the only one that is puzzled by the XTRAP being included in every plot? It's not a forecast (in fact, it usually is the opposite). Why do they include it with the models?

It's certainly not the opposite, it's just the current direction extended.

[WindRunner]

to update that pic...anyone with GR3 or can see the radar out of PR, can see its almost a ring now.

I have to agree with you after looking in GR3 . . . that actually is the center of rotation, and there have been 4 lightning strikes in that area in the last 20 minutes . . . it also aligns perfectly with that little puff of convection just west of smack in the middle of the CDO, and where the recon made the last vortex fix. I believe it is an eye!

[hicksta]

XTRAP is if the storm stayed on its current path

Well I may have missed it before so forgive me but, it looks like the UKMET has chimed in on this one.

Can I ask, am I the only one that is puzzled by the XTRAP being included in every plot? It's not a forecast (in fact, it usually is the opposite). Why do they include it with the models?

[mtm4319]

762
SXXX50 KNHC 022236
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 37 KNHC
2224. 1830N 06258W 01529 0115 198 021 150 138 022 01686 0000000000
2225 1831N 06257W 01524 0113 194 021 152 126 021 01678 0000000000
2225. 1833N 06257W 01525 0110 190 021 150 124 022 01676 0000000000
2226 1835N 06258W 01523 0109 192 023 150 128 023 01673 0000000000
2226. 1836N 06258W 01526 0109 191 024 148 142 024 01676 0000000000
2227 1838N 06258W 01526 0109 189 025 146 146 025 01676 0000000000
2227. 1840N 06258W 01523 0108 190 023 146 146 024 01672 0000000000
2228 1842N 06258W 01528 0108 192 022 148 138 023 01677 0000000000
2228. 1843N 06258W 01524 0108 194 022 148 138 022 01673 0000000000
2229 1845N 06258W 01525 0108 201 020 148 148 021 01674 0000000000
2229. 1847N 06258W 01527 0108 206 020 146 146 022 01676 1101000000
2230 1849N 06258W 01524 0108 203 019 142 142 019 01673 1101000000
2230. 1851N 06258W 01529 0107 203 020 150 150 022 01677 1101000000
2231 1852N 06258W 01522 0105 197 024 144 144 025 01668 1101000000
2231. 1854N 06258W 01531 0106 189 024 126 126 029 01678 1101000000
2232 1856N 06258W 01519 0106 207 021 148 146 021 01665 1101000000
2232. 1858N 06258W 01535 0105 199 023 154 134 023 01681 1101000000
2233 1900N 06259W 01527 0106 195 024 156 126 024 01674 1101000000
2233. 1902N 06259W 01527 0105 192 026 156 116 026 01673 1101000000
2234 1904N 06259W 01524 0105 192 026 152 136 026 01670 1101000000
;

[CronkPSU]

Well I may have missed it before so forgive me but, it looks like the UKMET has chimed in on this one.

Can I ask, am I the only one that is puzzled by the XTRAP being included in every plot? It's not a forecast (in fact, it usually is the opposite). Why do they include it with the models?

It's certainly not the opposite, it's just the current direction extended.

i think a lot of people use it as a point of reference to see where and how the models expect it to change course

[mtm4319]

Heading back north.

[StormWarning1]

Well I may have missed it before so forgive me but, it looks like the UKMET has chimed in on this one.

Can I ask, am I the only one that is puzzled by the XTRAP being included in every plot? It's not a forecast (in fact, it usually is the opposite). Why do they include it with the models?

XTRAP is short for extrapolation. It shows where the storm would be if it kept moving at the same speed and direction for five days based on the time when the models are initialized, in this case 18Z. It is a point of reference you can gauge the trend for direction and speed of the models.

[Extremeweatherguy]

here is a good way to see some of the shear going on:

On the visible you can see the storm moving WNW: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

However, on the IR, it looks like it takes a sudden S turn near the end due to what I think is northerly shear blowing off the cloud tops: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Then again, I could be wrong. If I am, then what is really going on with that IR loop?

[WindRunner]

to update that pic...anyone with GR3 or can see the radar out of PR, can see its almost a ring now.

I have to agree with you after looking in GR3 . . . that actually is the center of rotation, and there have been 4 lightning strikes in that area in the last 20 minutes . . . it also aligns perfectly with that little puff of convection just west of smack in the middle of the CDO, and where the recon made the last vortex fix. I believe it is an eye!

And now we have a complete ring of 45dBZ+ returns surrounded by and surrounding 30dBZ returns. Granted the beam is at 22,000 feet, but it still looks like an eye to me!

[HurricaneHunter914]

I beleive Chris is weakening a bit due to shear, but it may get stronger once it can get away from the high shear.