Tropical Storm Alberto

[Jim Hughes]

The space weather effect has showed it's relationship here again. Everything that I have continually talked about was in place and TD1 forms. I am not to sure how many more times this needs to occur before the meteorological community wakes up.

[ALhurricane]

The NHC did state there were several small circulations rotating around a mean center. However, looking at visibile satellite, the one moving WSW toward Cozumel is certainly the most impressive looking LLC. There are other small LLCs to the north, although they appear to have lost some definition late this morning. In other words, TD1 is a complete and utter mess.

If the LLC near Cozumel is the dominant feature, then it better get some convection quick. Otherwise, it is game, set, match.

That is where RECON becomes so critical. I don't envy their job of fixing the position of this thing.

AL...what do you think about the circ east of Belize?

I am not sure I see one there. I do see several outflow boundaries coming out of that convection. That means air is divergent at the surface. For development of low pressure, you would want to see air converging in the low levels. I don't think that is where a true circulation is or would establish itself.

[HURAKAN]

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/ ... ARLENE.jpg

Just to show how separated was Arlene's center to the convection and it was still a tropical storm.

[skysummit]

The NHC did state there were several small circulations rotating around a mean center. However, looking at visibile satellite, the one moving WSW toward Cozumel is certainly the most impressive looking LLC. There are other small LLCs to the north, although they appear to have lost some definition late this morning. In other words, TD1 is a complete and utter mess.

If the LLC near Cozumel is the dominant feature, then it better get some convection quick. Otherwise, it is game, set, match.

That is where RECON becomes so critical. I don't envy their job of fixing the position of this thing.

AL...what do you think about the circ east of Belize?

I am not sure I see one there. I do see several outflow boundaries coming out of that convection. That means air is divergent at the surface. For development of low pressure, you would want to see air converging in the low levels. I don't think that is where a true circulation is or would establish itself.

Ok, thanks. It just looked like an LLC forming on visible due east of the Mexican/Belize border.

[JamesFromMaine2]

The NHC did state there were several small circulations rotating around a mean center. However, looking at visibile satellite, the one moving WSW toward Cozumel is certainly the most impressive looking LLC. There are other small LLCs to the north, although they appear to have lost some definition late this morning. In other words, TD1 is a complete and utter mess.

If the LLC near Cozumel is the dominant feature, then it better get some convection quick. Otherwise, it is game, set, match.

That is where RECON becomes so critical. I don't envy their job of fixing the position of this thing.

AL...what do you think about the circ east of Belize?

I am not sure I see one there. I do see several outflow boundaries coming out of that convection. That means air is divergent at the surface. For development of low pressure, you would want to see air converging in the low levels. I don't think that is where a true circulation is or would establish itself.

That area this morning reported the lowest pressure at 8am this morning it had a pressure of 1000mb

[CHRISTY]

Average Forecast Error...

https://secure.fwhn.com/hurricanealley_ ... 48c3fl.jpg



*edited by staff to make clickable link due to size of image

[ALhurricane]

The NHC did state there were several small circulations rotating around a mean center. However, looking at visibile satellite, the one moving WSW toward Cozumel is certainly the most impressive looking LLC. There are other small LLCs to the north, although they appear to have lost some definition late this morning. In other words, TD1 is a complete and utter mess.

If the LLC near Cozumel is the dominant feature, then it better get some convection quick. Otherwise, it is game, set, match.

That is where RECON becomes so critical. I don't envy their job of fixing the position of this thing.

AL...what do you think about the circ east of Belize?

I am not sure I see one there. I do see several outflow boundaries coming out of that convection. That means air is divergent at the surface. For development of low pressure, you would want to see air converging in the low levels. I don't think that is where a true circulation is or would establish itself.

That area this morning reported the lowest pressure at 8am this morning it had a pressure of 1000mb

With it spitting out those outflow boundaries it probably won't have the lowest pressure for long. Outflow bounadries are the last thing you want to see if you want to see tropical development.

[GalvestonDuck]

The space weather effect has showed it's relationship here again. Everything that I have continually talked about was in place and TD1 forms. I am not to sure how many more times this needs to occur before the meteorological community wakes up.

It appears to me they're all awake. Otherewise, this puppy would be called TD1 now. Earth weather...tropical weather...that's what is in place for this to happen.

[ronjon]

Here's why the storm is having a tough time getting its act together - dry air

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[skysummit]

I'm truly starting to think that the original TD 1 is dead.

[curtadams]

None of the little swirls are the real circulation. Here's a quicksat of LL winds (thanks rockyman):

http://tinyurl.com/f7wzm

All these little swirls are orbiting the big circulation. The big circulation has no convection, I suspect because it's got too much dry air. #1 was putting up a convective smoke trail which died when it got close.

That QuikScat is over 5 hours old.

A circ that big doesn't go away in 5 hours. And you can still see it on the West Atlantic RGB map in the low clouds. (turn off the first five frames for clarity) Circ #1 is still orbiting it, although it's getting close to the center.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm truly starting to think that the original TD 1 is dead.

You could be correct..

Would not be a shock, and this has happened many times in the past. Until recon gets down there, it's hard to get a true grasp on whatever it is.

[Jim Hughes]

It appears to me they're all awake. Otherewise, this puppy would be called TD1 now. Earth weather...tropical weather...that's what is in place for this to happen.

I am not to sure what you men here GD? If your referring to the reasoning being favorable meteorological conditions then I would somewhat agree.

But what you are failing to understand here is that these conditions get put into place by favorable space weather changes.

[CHRISTY]

all the convection is the east....i think its begining to feel some sort of push maybe to the NNE?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg


*edited by staff to make clickable link due to size of image

[WindRunner]

I don't know if anyone has posted this, but a ship just north of the circulation center has been reporting increasing winds all morning. Ship KS049 reported last hour a 39kt wind and pressure of 1000.9 mb at 11:42 EDT. Certainly possible that these readings are miscalibrated, but it's also possible that they aren't.

[wx247]

This system is NOT moving NE right now.

[Recurve]

Last loops I checked, convection does seem to be moving basically due north.

Discussion seems to say there's not much or no LLC, but it's got nice blobs of convection and seeming arms starting to form. A kind of extratropical /noreaster look?

[CHRISTY]

NHC MODELS...
https://secure.fwhn.com/hurricanealley_ ... 5828fl.jpg

INTERMEDIATE MODELS....DIFFERENT AGENCIES

https://secure.fwhn.com/hurricanealley_ ... c3f8fl.jpg

SPAGHETTI MODELS...

https://secure.fwhn.com/hurricanealley_ ... fbd4fl.jpg


*edited by staff to make clickable links due to size of images
*please stop posting such large images

[Steve]

>>Just to show how separated was Arlene's center to the convection and it was still a tropical storm.

LMAO HURAKAN. How many people can you recall swearing that the center was under the highest cloudtops too? That's terminal on this site - that and the center is going to reform closer to the deepest convetion. I swear. It really will. It's coming to my house!

/sorry for the threadjack, but that picture was a great illustration of what I was talking about earlier with the IR sats that some people try to base their reasoning off of.

[Weatherfreak000]

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/HURAKAN5/ARLENE.jpg

Just to show how separated was Arlene's center to the convection and it was still a tropical storm.

That's a good comparison. I sincerely doubt TD 1 is dieing at all,