Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

#261 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 1:26 pm

25/1745 UTC 20.1N 46.1W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Thunder44 · #262 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 4:19 pm

134
ABNT20 KNHC 252110
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON SEP 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

#263 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 5:19 pm

The system continues to fight and if the shear decreases a little, I think it has a shot to become at least TD #9.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #264 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 5:32 pm

Nice LLC is all I can say...Also the convection looks to be on the increase. Come on Isaac!!!

Sanibel · #265 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:22 pm

I think it's already a TD.

#266 Postby **curtadams** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:26 pm

Shear has been relaxing all day. Shear over the LLC is getting mild - low teens. Ahead it's mostly in the 20's but some of that is the effects of the cyclone itself. So I'm expecting further intensification. It's been a depression all day but the last two quickscats missed the circ so it's not yet official.

#267 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:38 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060926 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060926 0000 060926 1200 060927 0000 060927 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.2N 47.2W 21.2N 49.4W 22.5N 51.7W 23.8N 53.9W
BAMM 20.2N 47.2W 21.2N 49.6W 22.6N 51.9W 24.1N 54.1W
A98E 20.2N 47.2W 20.3N 49.6W 21.3N 51.8W 23.6N 53.8W
LBAR 20.2N 47.2W 21.1N 49.5W 22.3N 51.9W 23.8N 54.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060928 0000 060929 0000 060930 0000 061001 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 56.0W 27.9N 58.8W 29.6N 60.9W 31.2N 62.6W
BAMM 25.8N 55.8W 28.4N 57.7W 29.9N 59.3W 31.0N 60.8W
A98E 26.5N 55.7W 30.3N 58.7W 33.4N 58.6W 36.2N 55.0W
LBAR 25.5N 56.3W 28.8N 59.0W 32.1N 60.1W 35.7N 58.3W
SHIP 42KTS 52KTS 56KTS 58KTS
DSHP 42KTS 52KTS 56KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.2N LONCUR = 47.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 19.6N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 309DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 18.9N LONM24 = 44.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#268 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:51 pm

not a TD for me! the center is spinning far away from the convection! still, it is improving!

#269 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:52 pm

25/2345 UTC 20.1N 47.2W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

No change from Sab dvorak in the T number since this morning.

Thunder44 · #270 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:12 pm

161
ABNT20 KNHC 260204
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

WindRunner · #271 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:46 pm

Things are looking good for 96 once again . . . it may develop yet. If this increased organization can survive the night, I'd say it has a good chance of getting classified.

Kerry04 · #272 Postby **Kerry04** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:28 pm

Is it just me or does it look like Invest 96 is moving to the west

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

#273 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:06 am

Reminds me of last year's I storm - Irene - albeit seven weeks deeper into the season...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #274 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:19 am

LLC is to the southwest of the deep convection. The darn shear is still hitting it, but overall has a nice strong LLC. I would say this is a classic depression. Why do I say its a depression? For one a depression has a closed LLC. Which appears to be the case. Also can form convection which also appears to be the case. Even so convection is not over the LLC its self.

Thunder44 · #275 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 3:43 am

After the eclispe, it looks good this morning. But where's the center?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

#276 Postby **TheEuropean** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:21 am

5am TWO:

ABNT20 KNHC 260904
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2006

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS REMAIN FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/260204.shtml

superfly · #277 Postby **superfly** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 5:35 am

If the convection persists, they might upgrade to TD at 11 am.

Thunder44 · #278 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 5:53 am

QS Pass at 9:44 UTC shows that the old center has opened up:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

I suspect by looking a visible imagery it's going to try to reform further north.

#279 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:35 am

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060926 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060926 1200 060927 0000 060927 1200 060928 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.4N 49.0W 22.6N 51.1W 24.0N 53.2W 25.5N 55.2W
BAMM 21.4N 49.0W 22.5N 51.3W 23.7N 53.5W 25.2N 55.3W
A98E 21.4N 49.0W 22.4N 50.9W 23.8N 52.8W 26.0N 54.3W
LBAR 21.4N 49.0W 22.6N 50.9W 24.0N 53.0W 25.4N 54.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060928 1200 060929 1200 060930 1200 061001 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.9N 56.9W 28.9N 59.2W 30.1N 61.2W 31.3N 62.9W
BAMM 26.4N 56.9W 27.9N 59.0W 29.1N 61.1W 30.2N 63.9W
A98E 28.7N 55.5W 33.1N 57.1W 36.6N 55.1W 37.5N 49.6W
LBAR 27.0N 56.8W 29.4N 59.5W 31.8N 60.7W 34.3N 59.2W
SHIP 39KTS 48KTS 52KTS 52KTS
DSHP 39KTS 48KTS 52KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.4N LONCUR = 49.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 20.2N LONM12 = 47.2W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 19.6N LONM24 = 45.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

26/1145 UTC 22.5N 48.8W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

Well,the confusion has been in the roof this morning as 97L appeared at NRLat the same place as 96L was.But as time has gone by it seems like 96L will stay and they will eliminate 97L as the SSD T number and the models are for 96L so I will open again this thread and lock the 97L one.

#280 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 9:20 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

not look as good as before.

Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

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