Tropical Storm Chris

[chris_fit]

1008MB... how? It looks great!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Amazing

[Brent]

1008 mb.

Storm cancel.

[dwg71]

1008 MB 53KT FL Winds

Its at 45KTS at the surface.

I for one hope this is a long term trend... doubt it though.

[mtm4319]

A bit south of west...

[Extremeweatherguy]

1008 MB 53KT FL Winds

Its at 45KTS at the surface.

I for one hope this is a long term trend... doubt it though.

I don't understand. How can they say 53 knots is max FL wind when it was WELL away from the center and not even within the strongest convection?

[Grease Monkey]

I don't know if that's true or not if whether or not they actually checked the deepest convention.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't know if that's true or not if whether or not they actually checked the deepest convention.

no, not within the last hour or so.

[JonathanBelles]

itll be down again

[mtm4319]

1008 MB 53KT FL Winds

Its at 45KTS at the surface.

I for one hope this is a long term trend... doubt it though.

I don't understand. How can they say 53 knots is max FL wind when it was WELL away from the center and not even within the strongest convection?

I believe they state just the strongest wind found since the last VDM.

[dwg71]

GFDL might be right after all - who knows.

Sorry for the people of Hispanolia, but I hope it crosses there.

[mtm4319]

024
SXXX50 KNHC 022356
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 45 KNHC
2344. 1934N 06443W 01524 0065 305 015 176 164 016 01630 0000000000
2345 1933N 06445W 01525 0066 293 015 174 168 015 01633 0000000000
2345. 1932N 06446W 01523 0067 287 016 180 160 018 01632 0000000000
2346 1931N 06447W 01527 0069 287 020 186 146 021 01638 0000000000
2346. 1929N 06448W 01525 0070 292 022 176 148 024 01637 0000000000
2347 1928N 06449W 01525 0072 286 024 180 146 024 01639 0000000000
2347. 1927N 06450W 01525 0074 283 025 176 152 025 01640 0000000000
2348 1926N 06451W 01526 0076 286 024 174 154 025 01644 0000000000
2348. 1925N 06453W 01527 0079 291 025 176 142 026 01647 0000000000
2349 1924N 06454W 01524 0080 289 024 180 134 024 01646 0000000000
2349. 1923N 06455W 01526 0081 292 024 178 136 024 01649 0000000000
2350 1922N 06456W 01526 0083 293 025 174 142 027 01651 0000000000
2350. 1921N 06457W 01524 0083 291 027 176 146 027 01650 0000000000
2351 1920N 06458W 01526 0084 294 027 178 142 028 01652 0000000000
2351. 1919N 06459W 01524 0086 291 026 178 140 026 01652 0000000000
2352 1918N 06500W 01525 0086 294 026 176 144 026 01653 0000000000
2352. 1917N 06502W 01524 0087 293 027 172 144 028 01653 0000000000
2353 1916N 06503W 01526 0088 289 026 170 144 026 01656 0000000000
2353. 1915N 06504W 01527 0088 288 026 170 136 026 01657 0000000000
2354 1914N 06505W 01522 0088 288 026 172 142 026 01652 0000000000
;

[chris_fit]

Also moved a smidge to the South based on the last vortex .... interesting

[cycloneye]

The fix was a little bit SW from the last one.

[Derek Ortt]

its because the tight wind core collapsed thanks to the surface divergence

[Grease Monkey]

1008 mb.

Storm cancel.

Nothing more to see here. Time for Debby.

[chris_fit]

its because the tight wind core collapsed thanks to the surface divergence

So kinda like a ERC on a TS if you will?

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
800 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...OUTER BANDS OF CHRIS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.

CHRIS HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM.

RECENT DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NEAR 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...19.8 N...64.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[f5]

RAPID WEAKENING

[Grease Monkey]

GFDL might be right after all - who knows.

Sorry for the people of Hispanolia, but I hope it crosses there.

How insensitivie.