Tropical Storm Chris

[Brent]

8pm

60 mph, 1007 mb

[MississippiHurricane]

OUTER BANDS OF CHRIS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.

CHRIS HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM.

RECENT DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NEAR 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...19.8 N...64.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

[Extremeweatherguy]

advisory still has it at 60mph; 1007mb.

[Andrew92]

Whoa, is there another recon pass scheduled before 11? I was thinking maybe 50 mph with 1008 mb pressure based on the vortex message. Oh well.

-Andrew92

[Innotech]

RAPID WEAKENING

small cyclone. It can easily go either way.

[JonathanBelles]

some of that info is old like the 1007mb

[mtm4319]

Might be heading back to St. Croix.

[Brent]

Whoa, is there another recon pass scheduled before 11? I was thinking maybe 50 mph with 1008 mb pressure based on the vortex message. Oh well.

-Andrew92

This plane should be leaving within the next hour... it's been there for 6 hours now.

Next flight is around 2am EDT.

[cheezyWXguy]

Whats making Chris continue to rise in pressure

[windycity]

wow, wouldnt that be something if the GFDL was right?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just think a few days from now Chris may very well be a hurricane about to enter the Gulf and all of these "weaker" moments of the storm will quickly be forgotten.

[Andrew92]

Whats making Chris continue to rise in pressure

Derek said something that the tight wind core collapsed.

-Andrew92

[Innotech]

Whats making Chris continue to rise in pressure

my guess is that shear blasting in from the North.

[cycloneye]

GFDL might be right after all - who knows.

Sorry for the people of Hispanolia, but I hope it crosses there.

Why are you hoping for tragedy to occur?

[HurricaneQueen]

while we can disagree about what this crazy huurricane is doing, we need to sit back and THANK every single pro met on this board for the time they put in, for US. They do it on their own and ask nothing in return. The least we can do is show them respect.,and tell them THANKYOU often.!!!!!!

Well said, Windy. I, for one, appreciate ALL of the Pro Mets' input. Seeing the rudeness of some posters really embarrasses me. I would never presume to call any of them out on their posts and I am old enough to be the grandmother of many of those who question or argue with the opinions of these experts. They have better things to do and are here to help educate you, so treat them with the respect their education and knowledge have earned them and take this wonderful opportunity to learn from them.

While I'm preaching, how about adding an IMO when making a blatant statement such as "this is going to hit XYZ." How can you possibly know when the experts and models haven't nailed it yet.

And finally, try using SpelChek. It will make your posts easier to read and help you with your spelling!

Thanks for listening. And don't forget to thank those that are here to help you-the Pros, the Admins and Mods. All are here for you without receiving any compensation.

Lynn

[Grease Monkey]

I say it's mostly because of the dry air.

[mtm4319]

DISCLAIMER: The following link has nothing to do with Chris in any way except to show that high pressures do not necessarily mean the death of a storm.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1992/andrew/public/pal0492.015

[Extremeweatherguy]

DISCLAIMER: The following link has nothing to do with Chris in any way except to show that high pressures do not necessarily mean the death of a storm.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1992/andrew/public/pal0492.015

and then a few days later there was this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... al0492.030

It is really scary how similar Chris is to Andrew.

[dwg71]

GFDL might be right after all - who knows.

Sorry for the people of Hispanolia, but I hope it crosses there.

Why are you hoping for tragedy to occur?

I wont even go there, you know what I mean. the mountains would more than likely dissapate the strom, and it would only go there as a minimal hurricane at worst.

[Derek Ortt]

no...

one vortex fix does not a trend make