Tropical Storm Chris

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest from JB says that he thinks this storm is very weak right now, but that it can come back. He said that if it did come back it could be stronger than ever and likely be a TX Gulf coast storm. However, he said a track further south along TX rather than further north is more likely at this time.

[f5]

No, it is not moving to the wsw. The XRAP will prove that in 11.

Maybe not WSW, but certainly its been south of due west for a couple of hours. If this pans out we will all bow to our new leader ... the GFDL.

lets all bow to the Katrina model after all it did predict that WSW motion while all the others said NW

[TheShrimper]

Sorry for overreacting about Andrew. I remember all they did to renovate Krome Ave. prior, and how it looked after the storm. It just brings back bad memories. There is still the remnants of a trailer park on Krome, just south of Lucy and north of the Everglades Motel....Does anyone in south Dade remember the name of it? The pads are all still there. Thanks.

[Noles2006]

Die, Chris, Die.

I don't want gas prices to rise any higher than they are. DIEEEEEEEEE!

[Fego]

I'm worried because people think that because of the storm will not touch the island then it will be like a tropical wave event. A west or who knows west-south west- change will take a lot of people for surprise, in terms of rain.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The wind core of the storm fall apart. It was very small now its expanding likely. Which it will now have a less pressure grad=a larger area of winds. So pretty much this cyclone has gotten bigger. But weaker central pressure. Look for it to start droping again as it reorganizes.

[mtm4319]

No returns for 15 minutes, so I'm guessing they're done. (Anyone notice an error on the last map I posted? )

I'll be asleep (or close to it) by the time the next flight leaves, so claims to post the minobs are up for grabs.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif

This lines up nicely with the new European as well. High over east Texas and Louisiana.

[HouTXmetro]

latest from JB says that he thinks this storm is very weak right now, but that it can come back. He said that if it did come back it could be stronger than ever and likely be a TX Gulf coast storm. However, he said a track further south along TX rather than further north is more likely at this time.

Ok, well that seals is for now, the consensus is South Texas/ Northern Mexico. I've uniformly heard this from most mets. Things can change but until the synoptic setup changes thats what I'm going with.

[Aquawind]

If this pans out we will all bow to our new leader ... the GFDL.

Nice..

[beachbum_al]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_150l.gif

This lines up nicely with the new European as well. High over east Texas and Louisiana.

If the high is over East TX and LA will that steer it more toward the west?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Lets see I think it will reorganize over the next 12 to 24 hours. It will reorganize as a larger storm. Chris can you become a cane? We will see.

[dwg71]

latest from JB says that he thinks this storm is very weak right now, but that it can come back. He said that if it did come back it could be stronger than ever and likely be a TX Gulf coast storm. However, he said a track further south along TX rather than further north is more likely at this time.

Ok, well that seals is for now, the consensus is South Texas/ Northern Mexico. I've uniformly heard this from most mets. Things can change but until the synoptic setup changes thats what I'm going with.

AFM has stated that for a while, look at big picture he says. When you do that you see that a due west turn is expected and it should surprise us.

[Patrick99]

What is going on south of Cuba? That area of convection has been persistent....I know...."convection caused by back side of upper level low," etc, etc. but sometimes that convection hangs around and turns into something.

I know...long shot, but possible fly in the ointment?

[MississippiHurricane]

Off topic: Channel 247 on xm radio needs to get with the program. The have not updated the advisories since the 11am one.

Sorry for hijacking.

[dwg71]

What is going on south of Cuba? That area of convection has been persistent....I know...."convection caused by back side of upper level low," etc, etc. but sometimes that convection hangs around and turns into something.

I know...long shot, but possible fly in the ointment?

Nice convection, but nothing tropical in nature at this time. WV shows some dissapation in the past few hours.

[HouTXmetro]

OK, I need the NHC to update their 5 day plot. It's the same from 5pm.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yes, let's hope this pans out.

[MississippiHurricane]

I heard somewhere someone said a "train" of storms would come into the gulf based on the current activity in the atlantic.

[skysummit]

OK, I need the NHC to update their 5 day plot. It's the same from 5pm.

They don't update tracks on Intermediate Advisories.