Tropical Storm Chris

[Extremeweatherguy]

NEW TRACK:

seems like it starts turn WNW or NW toward the end there.

[ROCK]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/024448.shtml?5day?large

If that verifies Chris will have to wait to be a cane until reemerging into the GOM. But really a trek across Cuba like that is really really bad for orginization.....Don't have much confidence it could make it even semi-intact.

[wxwonder12]

What has caused the slow down and the turn to W now. What would cause a turn back to the WNW??

[Brent]

It will not survive if it follows that track... more than a day over land???

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/024448.shtml?5day?large

If that verifies Chris will have to wait to be a cane until reemerging into the GOM. But really a trek across Cuba like that is really really bad for orginization.....Don't have much confidence it could make it even semi-intact.

Dennis and Charley did it. Although, they were much stronger systems and had more going for them. Hmm...

[JonathanBelles]

the NHC says due west or south of west but the map shows wnw why?

[Extremeweatherguy]

It shows the storm at 70 MPH before cuba, 50 MPH on land and then right back to 70 MPH

Let's just hope it doesn't go back north of Cuba. If it did then we'd be back to the hurricane situation.

Even if it hits Cuba though, I think this could easily regain strength and become a Hurricane in the GOM.

Basically this is what I think for the storm once it is in the Gulf:

If it goes through the FL straits: Cat. 2-4 in the GOM

If it scrapes land/Cuba: Cat. 2-3 in the GOM

If it goes over Cuba: Cat. 1-2 in the GOM

[DESTRUCTION5]

It will not survive if it follows that track... more than a day over land???

Exactly Brent..

[ROCK]

It will not survive if it follows that track... more than a day over land???

I agree Brent not good for a sheared system trying to organize.

[CronkPSU]

well it was an interesting little storm while it lasted...just hope Cuba doesn't suffer catastrophic flooding, can't see it being anything to worry about after exiting cuba on that path

[Extremeweatherguy]

remember not to focus on the "line" the NHC draws. We have already seen it shift many times with this system. Everyone should focus more on the cone of error.

[jhamps10]

hey still early on, it could miss cuba and go through the straights and into the GOM.


NEVER FOCUS ON THE LINE!!!!!

[ROCK]

well it was an interesting little storm while it lasted...just hope Cuba doesn't suffer catastrophic flooding, can't see it being anything to worry about after exiting cuba on that path

yep, I am selling all of my supplies on E-bay as I type......

[Andrew92]

Chris has turned westward this evening...as indicated by a series of
aircraft recon fixes ending around 00z...WSR-88D radar imagery from
San Juan...and GOES satellite imagery. Within the last couple of
hours...the radar imagery even suggests a motion a little south of
due west. For now I will consider that southward component as a
wobble and estimate the initial motion to be westward or 270
degrees at 7 kt. The only dynamical model to forecast a westward
motion during the next 24 hours is the GFDL...and its southern
track solution no longer seems so much of an outlier.
Also...overall the model guidance suite has shifted
south...seemingly in response to the strengthening deep-layer ridge
to the north of Chris. The official track forecast is shifted
southward...but out of respect for the remaining models...not as
far south as the GFDL.
Chris has been persistently producing very deep convection near the
circulation center this evening...with cloud tops as cold as -80c.
WSR-88D radar imagery from San Juan during the past few hours has
depicted a circulation near 25000 ft in altitude. The last fix from
the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft at around 00z located the
low-level center a little west of that feature...with a central
pressure of about 1007 mb. The advisory intensity remains 50 kt.
In accordance with most of the intensity guidance...the new
official intensity forecast is adjusted downward slightly in the
period before it possibly interacts with the landmasses of the
Greater Antilles. Following the official track forecast...Chris
would pass over land long enough to weaken late in the forecast
period before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico...if it lasts that
long.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/0300z 19.8n 64.9w 50 kt
12hr VT 03/1200z 20.1n 66.2w 50 kt
24hr VT 04/0000z 20.4n 68.0w 55 kt
36hr VT 04/1200z 20.8n 70.2w 60 kt
48hr VT 05/0000z 21.2n 72.5w 60 kt
72hr VT 06/0000z 22.0n 77.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 07/0000z 22.5n 82.5w 45 kt
120hr VT 08/0000z 23.5n 87.5w 60 kt

$$
forecaster Knabb

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

CHRIS HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING...AS INDICATED BY A SERIES OF
AIRCRAFT RECON FIXES ENDING AROUND 00Z...WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM
SAN JUAN...AND GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...THE RADAR IMAGERY EVEN SUGGESTS A MOTION A LITTLE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST. FOR NOW I WILL CONSIDER THAT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT AS A
WOBBLE AND ESTIMATE THE INITIAL MOTION TO BE WESTWARD OR 270
DEGREES AT 7 KT. THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL TO FORECAST A WESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE GFDL...AND ITS SOUTHERN
TRACK SOLUTION NO LONGER SEEMS SO MUCH OF AN OUTLIER.
ALSO...OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH...SEEMINGLY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD...BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE REMAINING MODELS...NOT AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE GFDL.

CHRIS HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY PRODUCING VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80C.
WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS
DEPICTED A CIRCULATION NEAR 25000 FT IN ALTITUDE. THE LAST FIX FROM
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT AROUND 00Z LOCATED THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER A LITTLE WEST OF THAT FEATURE...WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.
IN ACCORDANCE WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE NEW
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE IT POSSIBLY INTERACTS WITH THE LANDMASSES OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES. FOLLOWING THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...CHRIS
WOULD PASS OVER LAND LONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IF IT LASTS THAT
LONG.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 19.8N 64.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 20.1N 66.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 20.4N 68.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 20.8N 70.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 21.2N 72.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 22.0N 77.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 82.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 23.5N 87.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[stormtruth]

The NHC shows it starting to reorganize from 45 to 65 after exiting cuba. Tho it might hit Mexico not Texas on the path they have.

[ROCK]

remember not to focus on the "line" the NHC draws. We have already seen it shift many times with this system. Everyone should focus more on the cone of error.

That is very true EWG. But I was just saying if this track does verify there might not be enough left to organize once back in the GOM.

[ConvergenceZone]

It will not survive if it follows that track... more than a day over land???

I agree 100% IF the storm follows that track. It's gone, it's history! The storm is too small and weak to survive at all a track like that. A track like that has torn apart large strong systems, you can imagine how bad it would tear apart Chris.

Again, just saying IF if follows that track, we will have nothing to worry about. I'm glad it hasn't got any stronger too, because that will minimize the damage of Cuba. I'm sure it will just be rains and not wind.

I'm feeling better after the turn and after seeing that track. If by chance it turns more south(as the discussion just said is possible), then it may end up being a Mexico storm and not affect the USA at all.

So far I've been pretty good today with my oberservations, hehe. I mentioned it turning west(although folks told me it was a jog, which it usually is), and I also commented that I believe it would follow the GDFL model, which it is now closer in line with doing. Alot of other folks saw this coming too though

[boca]

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 02, 2006



Chris has turned westward this evening...as indicated by a series of
aircraft recon fixes ending around 00z...WSR-88D radar imagery from
San Juan...and GOES satellite imagery. Within the last couple of
hours...the radar imagery even suggests a motion a little south of
due west. For now I will consider that southward component as a
wobble and estimate the initial motion to be westward or 270
degrees at 7 kt. The only dynamical model to forecast a westward
motion during the next 24 hours is the GFDL...and its southern
track solution no longer seems so much of an outlier.
Also...overall the model guidance suite has shifted
south...seemingly in response to the strengthening deep-layer ridge
to the north of Chris. The official track forecast is shifted
southward...but out of respect for the remaining models...not as
far south as the GFDL.
Chris has been persistently producing very deep convection near the
circulation center this evening...with cloud tops as cold as -80c.
WSR-88D radar imagery from San Juan during the past few hours has
depicted a circulation near 25000 ft in altitude. The last fix from
the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft at around 00z located the
low-level center a little west of that feature...with a central
pressure of about 1007 mb. The advisory intensity remains 50 kt.
In accordance with most of the intensity guidance...the new
official intensity forecast is adjusted downward slightly in the
period before it possibly interacts with the landmasses of the
Greater Antilles. Following the official track forecast...Chris
would pass over land long enough to weaken late in the forecast
period before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico...if it lasts that
long.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/0300z 19.8n 64.9w 50 kt
12hr VT 03/1200z 20.1n 66.2w 50 kt
24hr VT 04/0000z 20.4n 68.0w 55 kt
36hr VT 04/1200z 20.8n 70.2w 60 kt
48hr VT 05/0000z 21.2n 72.5w 60 kt
72hr VT 06/0000z 22.0n 77.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 07/0000z 22.5n 82.5w 45 kt
120hr VT 08/0000z 23.5n 87.5w 60 kt

$$
forecaster Knabb

[FloridaDiver]

I'm starting to get the feeling he's heading to San Juan and following the GFDL!

I kind of agree, guess the GFDL did have somewhat of a handle on Chris earlier since it now appears there is a more WNW component... for now… if this pattern holds fast, and I think it will, very good news for us in South Florida!