Hurricane Gordon - Cat. 3

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #281 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:23 pm

Not a chance in heck.

1# The cloud tops are not nearly cold enough.
2# The first one will not bump the t numbers that high.
3# No recon.

NOPE NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE for a cat5. Maybe 115 knots?

#282 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:36 pm

trugunz wrote:You think he has a chance to reach cat 5?

Not likely. Not enough time to keep strengthening.

#283 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:41 pm

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2006 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 27:18:50 N Lon : 57:17:42 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 949.5mb/112.4kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 6.1 6.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 35 km

Center Temp : +17.2C Cloud Region Temp : -58.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/12hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Website · #284 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:48 pm

Cat 4 anyone? WOW.

#285 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:48 pm

Brent wrote:Cat 4 anyone? WOW.

Not quite. If it stays at T5.9, they'd likely hold it at 110 kt as that would round down + accuracy may be suspect.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #286 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:49 pm

I still say 110 knots. Cloud tops need to be a little bit more colder. But yes this is a soild cat3 very likley.

jhamps10 · #287 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:50 pm

wow, this sure did suprise me today. Solid cat 3 cane, undergoing RI, but not as RI as Wilma had, but still thank goodness that this will go East of Bremuda.

#288 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:51 pm

jhamps10 wrote:wow, this sure did suprise me today. Solid cat 3 cane, undergoing RI, but not as RI as Wilma had, but still thank goodness that this will go East of Bremuda.

Yeah the last real severe fishie was Karl (2004). There weren't many big fish storms last year; they all wanted to make landfall somewhere.

#289 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:52 pm

i'd say 130mph just below cat status.

#290 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:52 pm

Now, that's small. Gordoncito!!!

jhamps10 · #291 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:53 pm

MAN!!! not to get off track, but look at the size of Gordo compaired to T.D. 8, wow that is huge...

#292 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:53 pm

compared to TD 8 and florence yes gordon is small

#293 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:53 pm

fact789 wrote:i'd say 130mph just below cat status.

They'd officially mark such as 125mph (110 kt) as that falls between knot ranges.

And yes, it is really small. Reminds me of Charley.

#294 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:56 pm

Anyone notice the colors on TD8/Helene are much brighter than on Gordon? I hate to wonder what will happen when/if it gets organized...

Jim Cantore · #295 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:57 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
fact789 wrote:i'd say 130mph just below cat status.

They'd officially mark such as 125mph (110 kt) as that falls between knot ranges.

And yes, it is really small. Reminds me of Charley.

In the chatroom, Senorpepr brought up a good point about the large eye being deceiving. Maybe he can clairify a bit more.

Scorpion · #296 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:20 pm

I would say 110 kt for 11 sounds right.

#297 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:21 pm

No text yet of the models but already NRL has it at 100kts and 960 mbs.

Scorpion · #298 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:21 pm

So maybe 105 kts for 11. I think thats conservative.

wxmann_91 · #299 Postby **wxmann_91** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:50 pm

Cyclenall wrote:One thing I can say is 2006 has produced some of the most beautiful looking tropical cyclones I have ever seen. First Monica, Daniel, Ioke, and now Gordon. 2005 Atlantic had Katrina, Rita, Wilma and such but still.

Nabi and Haitang from the WPAC were amazing at peak intensity.

#300 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:50 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
And yes, it is really small. Reminds me of Charley.

I wouldn't say Charley, as Charley's eye was just a few miles across, certainly less than 10. Charley's max winds were only over a few square miles. Gordon's eye is closer to 30-40 miles across, and it likely has a very large area of max winds compared to Charley. It's more similar to Lili in size (2003) or Camille than Charley. Almost an annular hurricane.

As you can see from the graphic below, Charley's hurricane force winds extended out from the center only 15 miles. With such a large eye, hurricane force winds may extend out 40-50 miles. That's a little larger than an average hurricane. Camille's hurricane-force winds extended about that far out.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gulfstorms.gif

I think it looks like a borderline Cat 3/4 now, with 125-135 mph winds. But we'll never know for sure without recon.

Hurricane Gordon - Cat. 3

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