Tropical Storm Chris

[mobilebay]

564
SXXX50 KNHC 030541
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 06 KNHC
0529. 1856N 06435W 01525 0102 195 030 152 128 031 01659 0000000000
0530 1857N 06436W 01522 0100 197 030 152 132 031 01655 0000000000
0530. 1858N 06437W 01525 0099 207 025 152 142 029 01657 0000000000
0531 1859N 06439W 01525 0098 213 024 158 148 025 01656 0000000000
0531. 1900N 06440W 01522 0096 219 023 176 144 025 01650 0000000000
0532 1901N 06441W 01527 0095 215 022 180 142 022 01655 0000000000
0532. 1902N 06443W 01520 0095 221 021 180 140 023 01648 0000000000
0533 1903N 06444W 01527 0092 210 023 184 136 024 01651 0000000000
0533. 1904N 06445W 01524 0093 214 021 186 130 024 01650 0000000000
0534 1905N 06447W 01525 0096 220 015 190 128 020 01654 0000000000
0534. 1906N 06448W 01526 0096 202 013 192 126 015 01655 0000000000
0535 1907N 06450W 01521 0094 213 022 186 138 025 01648 0000000000
0535. 1909N 06451W 01525 0094 217 025 182 148 026 01652 0000000000
0536 1910N 06452W 01523 0095 217 029 166 158 030 01651 0000000000
0536. 1911N 06454W 01526 0095 224 030 168 146 030 01654 0000000000
0537 1912N 06455W 01526 0096 224 029 156 156 030 01655 0000000000
0537. 1913N 06456W 01523 0096 222 024 154 154 027 01652 0000000000
0538 1914N 06457W 01525 0095 227 023 160 156 023 01653 0000000000
0538. 1915N 06459W 01525 0094 216 027 160 158 030 01651 0000000000
0539 1916N 06500W 01522 0094 210 030 166 154 032 01649 0000000000
;

[curtadams]

The shear maps are showing less than 20 knots

I'm assuming you're referring to the CIMSS product which is a product based on cloud track winds between the upper levels and lower levels. However, this is a bit misleading at the moment because there is a large amount of shear, but it is between the lower levels and mid levels. The 00Z San Juan sounding shows this nicely, though one must be mindful of the contamination of the winds by Chris itself in the sounding.

You mean this? http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/images ... .skewt.gif I'm not familiar with that graphic. Does that show a midlevel layer at about 7000 meters moving 30 knots or so relative to both upper and lower air?

[mobilebay]

not very impressive so far.

[Stratosphere747]

They may have wanted to make sure there was not another surface low trying to form.

Should be headed to the naked swirl...

[Swimdude]

I don't think we'll see anything to deem "impressive" tonight.

[mobilebay]

882
SXXX50 KNHC 030551
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 07 KNHC
0539. 1917N 06501W 01523 0093 215 027 168 152 029 01649 0000000000
0540 1918N 06503W 01523 0093 212 023 164 164 024 01650 0000000000
0540. 1919N 06504W 01526 0095 222 020 150 150 023 01654 0000000000
0541 1920N 06505W 01526 0094 210 015 152 152 017 01652 0000000000
0541. 1921N 06507W 01521 0096 207 013 150 150 014 01650 0000000000
0542 1922N 06508W 01521 0095 249 019 146 146 023 01649 0000000000
0542. 1923N 06509W 01531 0096 268 020 146 146 021 01660 0000000000
0543 1924N 06511W 01517 0094 273 018 158 158 020 01643 0000000000
0543. 1925N 06512W 01531 0093 265 017 160 160 019 01657 0000000000
0544 1926N 06513W 01524 0096 239 016 158 158 016 01653 0000000000
0544. 1928N 06514W 01523 0094 231 018 156 156 019 01650 0000000000
0545 1929N 06515W 01523 0093 232 019 158 152 019 01648 0000000000
0545. 1931N 06516W 01524 0092 235 017 160 142 017 01649 0000000000
0546 1932N 06517W 01524 0093 228 015 164 154 016 01650 0000000000
0546. 1933N 06518W 01522 0092 231 013 170 148 014 01647 0000000000
0547 1934N 06519W 01524 0091 231 013 168 148 015 01648 0000000000
0547. 1936N 06520W 01525 0090 240 012 166 148 013 01647 0000000000
0548 1937N 06521W 01526 0089 237 010 170 152 012 01648 0000000000
0548. 1938N 06522W 01521 0089 233 010 174 150 010 01643 0000000000
0549 1940N 06523W 01525 0088 235 010 174 142 010 01646 0000000000
;
Yep. headed for the Naked swirl.

[Brent]

Depressing.

[HouTXmetro]

will a new advisory come shortly?

[Grease Monkey]

Depressing.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 AM AST THU AUG 03 2006

...CHRIS BECOMING DISORGANIZED...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO
ENGANO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES...185 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING CHRIS.

CHRIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR. A
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WOULD STAY NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IF THE CENTER OF CHRIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...20.0 N...65.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

[MWatkins]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... TNT33.KNHC

Good old Avila is taking the helm.

Never a good sign for tropical cyclone fans.

MW

[HouTXmetro]

Nothing new from the last advisory

[Brent]

Depressing.

LOL. I'm going to bed in about 30 minutes. I don't expect to wake up to much...

[mobilebay]

They have not sampled the entire area of convection. After they get a Vortex message from the swirl, they will probably find a minimal Tropical storm. JMHO. 38 knots flight level is the best so far.

[Stratosphere747]

Nothing new from the last advisory

Just about stuck the fork in him...

[mobilebay]

856
SXXX50 KNHC 030601
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 08 KNHC
0549. 1941N 06524W 01524 0088 250 006 180 124 007 01645 0000000000
0550 1943N 06525W 01524 0087 245 005 182 122 005 01644 0000000000
0550. 1944N 06526W 01523 0087 261 005 186 122 006 01643 0000000000
0551 1946N 06526W 01525 0087 259 006 186 124 007 01645 0000000000
0551. 1947N 06527W 01524 0086 240 006 186 122 007 01644 0000000000
0552 1949N 06527W 01523 0085 242 006 186 122 007 01641 0000000000
0552. 1950N 06528W 01526 0085 218 006 186 122 006 01644 0000000000
0553 1952N 06529W 01523 0085 161 006 188 128 007 01641 0000000000
0553. 1953N 06530W 01523 0084 170 005 188 122 006 01640 0000000000
0554 1954N 06532W 01525 0084 181 004 186 124 005 01642 0000000000
0554. 1953N 06533W 01522 0082 235 005 186 126 007 01637 0000000000
0555 1953N 06535W 01524 0083 249 008 186 122 009 01639 0000000000
0555. 1954N 06536W 01524 0081 248 009 190 118 009 01637 0000000000
0556 1955N 06538W 01526 0080 239 009 190 116 010 01639 0000000000
0556. 1957N 06538W 01522 0078 234 011 188 120 012 01633 0000000000
0557 1959N 06539W 01525 0078 236 012 186 128 012 01635 0000000000
0557. 2000N 06540W 01525 0078 222 008 190 128 009 01636 0000000000
0558 2001N 06541W 01523 0076 226 009 186 130 009 01633 0000000000
0558. 2002N 06542W 01524 0075 245 008 184 146 009 01632 0000000000
0559 2004N 06543W 01526 0073 251 007 186 152 007 01632 0000000000
;

[mobilebay]

they are in the swirl. Should be getting a vortex soon.

[Stratosphere747]

Vortex, or obit....

[mobilebay]

Vortex, or obit....

[mobilebay]

777
SXXX50 KNHC 030611
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 09 KNHC
0559. 2006N 06543W 01522 0072 246 006 194 148 007 01626 0000000000
0600 2007N 06544W 01525 0072 234 004 192 150 005 01630 0000000000
0600. 2009N 06545W 01524 0071 184 002 194 150 003 01627 0000000000
0601 2010N 06545W 01524 0071 114 003 200 146 003 01627 0000000000
0601. 2012N 06546W 01525 0070 111 004 202 142 006 01627 0000000000
0602 2013N 06547W 01523 0070 116 004 204 140 005 01626 0000000000
0602. 2015N 06548W 01523 0070 068 003 204 140 004 01626 0000000000
0603 2016N 06549W 01525 0068 066 006 208 136 006 01626 0000000000
0603. 2017N 06550W 01524 0068 069 007 212 132 007 01625 0000000000
0604 2018N 06551W 01524 0068 054 010 216 128 011 01624 0000000000
0604. 2019N 06553W 01524 0068 056 014 216 128 014 01624 0000000000
0605 2021N 06554W 01524 0067 062 016 218 126 016 01624 0000000000
0605. 2022N 06556W 01525 0068 066 017 212 134 018 01625 0000000000
0606 2022N 06557W 01522 0068 067 019 210 132 020 01623 0000000000
0606. 2023N 06559W 01526 0070 068 022 210 134 022 01628 0000000000
0607 2024N 06601W 01523 0070 070 023 210 132 023 01625 0000000000
0607. 2025N 06602W 01524 0071 072 027 208 134 027 01627 0000000000
0608 2025N 06604W 01524 0072 072 027 206 134 028 01629 0000000000
0608. 2026N 06606W 01523 0073 071 028 206 134 029 01629 0000000000
0609 2027N 06608W 01525 0074 070 030 204 136 032 01632 0000000000
;