Tropical Storm Chris

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Sorry, but I'm confused.
I guess I'll just wait for the NHC discussion. 4 AM CST, right?

[ericinmia]

Seems to me that the mm5 is the only one grasping what is going on in the "NEAR term" at least.

lol here is a horrible job at image overlay...

[mobilebay]

531
SXXX50 KNHC 030801
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 20 KNHC
0749. 2022N 06607W 01525 0069 121 016 210 130 017 01626 0000000000
0750 2023N 06606W 01525 0069 124 015 210 126 015 01626 0000000000
0750. 2025N 06604W 01527 0070 124 013 214 118 013 01630 0000000000
0751 2025N 06603W 01522 0071 123 013 214 114 014 01625 0000000000
0751. 2027N 06602W 01526 0071 133 016 214 112 017 01630 0000000000
0752 2028N 06601W 01522 0073 133 018 214 110 019 01627 0000000000
0752. 2029N 06559W 01524 0072 130 020 212 106 021 01629 0000000000
0753 2030N 06558W 01525 0074 130 021 210 108 022 01632 0000000000
0753. 2031N 06557W 01523 0074 125 024 210 106 025 01630 0000000000
0754 2032N 06556W 01525 0076 126 025 206 108 025 01633 0000000000
0754. 2033N 06554W 01525 0076 121 025 202 114 026 01634 0000000000
0755 2035N 06553W 01522 0076 120 025 200 116 025 01631 0000000000
0755. 2036N 06552W 01527 0078 122 025 200 118 025 01638 0000000000
0756 2037N 06551W 01524 0079 122 026 196 118 026 01635 0000000000
0756. 2038N 06550W 01524 0079 123 025 192 122 026 01636 0000000000
0757 2039N 06548W 01524 0080 126 027 186 126 027 01636 0000000000
0757. 2040N 06547W 01524 0081 129 028 186 126 028 01637 0000000000
0758 2041N 06546W 01524 0082 128 028 186 126 028 01638 0000000000
0758. 2042N 06545W 01524 0082 128 028 184 130 028 01639 0000000000
0759 2043N 06543W 01525 0084 128 028 180 132 029 01641 0000000000
;

[mobilebay]

Just coming out of the center into the East Quad.

[ericinmia]

The model appears to dissapate Chris... and starts jumping around when there is barely a hint left of her...

[wxman22]

Yep it does look like the MM5 is the model that is the most accurate right now, thats why I WOULD'NT say the GFDL was right on the money with it's southward motion maybe with the convection but not with the LLC.

EDIT maybe the model may be the most accurate in the short term but maybe not in the long turm I dont see that sharp a turn to the south happening atleast not yet...

[wxman22]

It looks like today is going to be one of those wait and see days or watch and see days....... Intresting day ahead

[mobilebay]

RNT12 KNHC 030812
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/07:46:30Z
B. 20 deg 16 min N
066 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1522 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 096 deg 017 kt
G. 355 deg 008 nm
H. 1010 mb
I. 20 C/ 1524 m
J. 21 C/ 1525 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 135 / 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 07
MAX FL WIND 38 KT SE QUAD 07:38:50 Z

[mobilebay]

712
SXXX50 KNHC 030811
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 21 KNHC
0759. 2044N 06542W 01524 0084 130 029 178 134 030 01641 0000000000
0800 2046N 06541W 01524 0086 131 029 178 136 030 01643 0000000000
0800. 2047N 06540W 01524 0087 130 029 172 146 030 01643 0000000000
0801 2048N 06538W 01525 0088 131 026 170 158 027 01645 0000000000
0801. 2049N 06537W 01523 0088 130 028 168 166 029 01644 0000000000
0802 2050N 06536W 01524 0089 128 029 166 166 030 01646 0000000000
0802. 2051N 06535W 01524 0090 133 031 166 166 031 01646 0000000000
0803 2052N 06533W 01525 0092 129 030 162 162 032 01649 0000000000
0803. 2053N 06532W 01523 0091 127 030 164 164 032 01647 0000000000
0804 2054N 06531W 01526 0092 131 031 160 160 033 01651 0000000000
0804. 2056N 06530W 01523 0093 134 029 160 160 030 01649 0000000000
0805 2057N 06528W 01524 0093 136 030 160 160 030 01650 0000000000
0805. 2058N 06527W 01524 0093 137 030 160 160 030 01650 0000000000
0806 2059N 06526W 01524 0095 132 029 156 156 030 01651 0000000000
0806. 2100N 06525W 01524 0095 130 030 156 156 030 01652 0000000000
0807 2101N 06523W 01524 0096 132 033 156 156 033 01653 0000000000
0807. 2102N 06522W 01524 0097 133 033 154 154 034 01654 0000000000
0808 2103N 06521W 01523 0098 134 034 154 154 035 01654 0000000000
0808. 2104N 06520W 01525 0099 137 035 156 156 035 01656 0000000000
0809 2106N 06518W 01523 0099 133 035 160 146 035 01654 0000000000
;

[wxman22]

So is it a depression or still a storm? Or will we have to wait for the next discussion?

[mobilebay]

So is it a depression or still a storm? Or will we have to wait for the next discussion?

Close call. They are just now sampling the East Quad. However, it is getting close to package time. As of now we have a solid depression.
They may be generous an keep it a 35 Knot TS until the entire storm can be sampled.

[Normandy]

The LLC is totally separated and the Convection around the MLC is dying out....some showers seem to be developing ahead of the LLC....

I think the LLC will remain Chris's dominant circulation.

[Grease Monkey]

Well I think according to those readings, it's technically a depression.

[mobilebay]

713
UZNT13 KNHC 030812
XXAA 53088 99203 70662 07906 99010 26008 27516 00092 25405 28515
92777 22013 30510 85511 22458 36002 88999 77999
31313 09608 80746
61616 AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 08
62626 SPL 2027N06618W 0748 MBL WND 29012 AEV 20604 DLM WND 29510
009868 WL150 28515 084 =
XXBB 53088 99203 70662 07906 00010 26008 11870 20227 22850 22458
33849 22657 44843 20457
21212 00010 27516 11976 30011 22951 29009 33886 31010 44868 28508
55843 06504
31313 09608 80746
61616 AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 08
62626 SPL 2027N06618W 0748 MBL WND 29012 AEV 20604 DLM WND 29510
009868 WL150 28515 084 =
;

[wxman22]

Atleast it's "nacked" so we can see where it's realy going now

[boca]

Looks like Chris is a naked swirl. Maybe Chris will go poof.

[mobilebay]

455
SXXX50 KNHC 030821
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 22 KNHC
0809. 2107N 06517W 01525 0100 133 036 160 144 036 01657 0000000000
0810 2108N 06516W 01524 0099 133 036 160 142 036 01656 0000000000
0810. 2109N 06515W 01523 0100 133 035 152 148 036 01655 0000000000
0811 2110N 06513W 01525 0101 134 037 156 144 037 01658 0000000000
0811. 2111N 06512W 01524 0101 134 038 154 146 039 01658 0000000000
0812 2112N 06511W 01525 0101 136 038 150 148 039 01659 0000000000
0812. 2114N 06510W 01525 0108 134 038 146 146 039 01665 0000000000
0813 2115N 06511W 01519 0107 128 038 146 146 039 01659 0000000000
0813. 2115N 06513W 01525 0101 126 036 154 144 037 01659 0000000000
0814 2114N 06515W 01524 0100 125 036 156 144 036 01657 0000000000
0814. 2114N 06517W 01524 0101 124 035 158 144 035 01658 0000000000
0815 2114N 06519W 01524 0100 124 035 154 146 036 01657 0000000000
0815. 2115N 06521W 01523 0100 127 036 146 146 038 01656 0000000000
0816 2115N 06523W 01527 0100 123 036 152 148 036 01660 0000000000
0816. 2115N 06525W 01523 0100 123 037 156 150 039 01656 0000000000
0817 2115N 06527W 01525 0099 119 040 158 152 041 01657 0000000000
0817. 2115N 06529W 01523 0098 118 040 160 152 040 01654 0000000000
0818 2115N 06531W 01524 0098 116 037 162 154 037 01654 0000000000
0818. 2115N 06533W 01524 0098 113 034 162 150 036 01655 0000000000
0819 2115N 06535W 01523 0097 111 033 164 150 033 01653 0000000000
;

[Grease Monkey]

Chris was stripped of his manhood.

[mobilebay]

0817 2115N 06527W 01525 0099 119 040 158 152 041 01657 0000000000
41 Knot wind. Starting to cut it close because they are in the east Quad.

[mobilebay]

Well I think according to those readings, it's technically a depression.

0817 2115N 06527W 01525 0099 119 040 158 152 041 01657 0000000000
that reading should keep it a TS.