Tropical Storm Chris

[wxman22]

I see the little flare up in convection also

[mobilebay]

771
URNT11 KNHC 030816
97779 08104 50212 65200 15300 13037 1515/ /2555
RMK AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 09
;

[mobilebay]

419
URNT14 KNHC 030827
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01194 10668 12547 11615 27013
02197 20666 22542 21713 30014
03199 30665 32536 31714 29010
04201 40663 42532 41616 31011
MF204 M0662 MF017
OBS 01 AT 07:18:30Z
OBS 04 AT 07:32:10Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01205 10660 12526 12111 13019
02206 20658 22534 21912 13027
03208 30656 32542 31717 13028
04210 40654 42549 41616 13029
05212 50652 52555 51515 13037
MF212 M0652 MF037
OBS 01 AT 07:51:50Z
OBS 05 AT 08:10:30Z
OBS 05 SFC WND /////
AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 10
;

[mobilebay]

200
SXXX50 KNHC 030831
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 23 KNHC
0819. 2115N 06537W 01525 0096 110 032 166 148 032 01653 0000000000
0820 2115N 06539W 01523 0095 108 033 170 140 033 01651 0000000000
0820. 2115N 06541W 01524 0096 109 033 174 132 033 01653 0000000000
0821 2115N 06543W 01525 0096 110 033 174 132 034 01653 0000000000
0821. 2115N 06545W 01523 0095 109 034 174 126 034 01651 0000000000
0822 2115N 06547W 01525 0095 108 034 176 124 034 01652 0000000000
0822. 2115N 06549W 01524 0094 107 035 176 128 035 01651 0000000000
0823 2115N 06551W 01524 0095 107 036 176 132 036 01651 0000000000
0823. 2115N 06553W 01524 0094 106 035 176 128 036 01651 0000000000
0824 2115N 06555W 01524 0094 103 036 174 136 036 01650 0000000000
0824. 2115N 06557W 01524 0093 102 035 176 132 036 01650 0000000000
0825 2115N 06600W 01524 0093 101 036 176 132 036 01649 0000000000
0825. 2115N 06602W 01524 0093 100 037 178 126 037 01650 0000000000
0826 2115N 06604W 01524 0093 099 037 180 126 037 01650 0000000000
0826. 2115N 06606W 01524 0093 098 035 180 126 035 01649 0000000000
0827 2115N 06608W 01524 0093 097 035 180 122 035 01649 0000000000
0827. 2115N 06610W 01524 0093 093 034 180 124 034 01649 0000000000
0828 2115N 06612W 01524 0093 093 032 186 126 032 01649 0000000000
0828. 2115N 06614W 01525 0094 089 031 186 126 031 01651 0000000000
0829 2115N 06616W 01523 0093 087 030 186 126 030 01649 0000000000
;

[mobilebay]

530
WTNT33 KNHC 030838
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM AST THU AUG 03 2006

...CHRIS WEAKENING IN A HURRY...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO
ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST OR ABOUT 315
MILES...505 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES THROUGH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...20.3 N...66.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Grease Monkey]

I see the little flare up in convection also

Maybe very very slightly. Hard to tell. We'll see if this trend continues and whether or not Chris has truly found some tighty whiteys.

[mobilebay]

628
SXXX50 KNHC 030841
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 24 KNHC
0829. 2115N 06618W 01525 0093 085 030 186 122 030 01651 0000000000
0830 2115N 06620W 01523 0094 084 030 186 122 030 01650 0000000000
0830. 2115N 06622W 01524 0094 083 031 186 122 031 01651 0000000000
0831 2115N 06624W 01524 0094 081 030 186 124 030 01651 0000000000
0831. 2115N 06626W 01524 0094 078 030 186 122 030 01651 0000000000
0832 2115N 06628W 01524 0094 078 029 184 126 029 01651 0000000000
0832. 2115N 06630W 01524 0094 080 029 180 138 029 01651 0000000000
0833 2115N 06632W 01525 0094 079 029 180 128 030 01651 0000000000
0833. 2115N 06634W 01524 0095 077 030 182 122 030 01651 0000000000
0834 2116N 06636W 01524 0095 074 030 186 114 030 01652 0000000000
0834. 2116N 06638W 01524 0095 076 031 184 116 032 01652 0000000000
0835 2116N 06640W 01524 0095 075 031 184 114 031 01652 0000000000
0835. 2116N 06642W 01524 0096 073 030 182 116 031 01652 0000000000
0836 2116N 06644W 01524 0096 072 031 180 120 031 01653 0000000000
0836. 2116N 06647W 01524 0096 073 031 180 120 031 01653 0000000000
0837 2116N 06649W 01524 0097 074 032 180 122 032 01653 0000000000
0837. 2116N 06651W 01524 0098 074 031 178 122 031 01654 0000000000
0838 2116N 06653W 01524 0097 072 031 176 130 032 01654 0000000000
0838. 2116N 06655W 01524 0097 072 031 176 132 031 01654 0000000000
0839 2116N 06657W 01524 0098 071 030 176 134 030 01654 0000000000
;

[mobilebay]

102
WTNT43 KNHC 030839
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

CHRIS IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED IN A HURRY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY
FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
HAS RISEN TO 1010 MB AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED SO
FAR IS ONLY 38 KNOTS. HOWEVER...ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE
CIRCULATION HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS... AND THIS IS VERY GENEROUS. I WAS TEMPTED
TO FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVEN DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A
STEADY STATE CONSIDERING THAT THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF CHRIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. ACCORDING TO ALL GLOBAL
MODELS...A STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...CHRIS...OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE SYSTEM...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...VERY NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND
EVENTUALLY REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN FIVE DAYS. THE
DILEMMA IS THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. IT COULD WEAKEN
FURTHER AND DISSIPATE OR COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH. I AM IN FAVOR
OF WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.3N 66.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 20.8N 70.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 21.2N 72.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 22.5N 79.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 23.0N 84.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 23.5N 89.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

I wish I knew how to read those.

[johngaltfla]

Perhaps we'll all get lucky today and get to post the "STORM CANCEL" sign....it doesn't look healthy at all...

[Starburst]

Here ya go

During reconnaissance of tropical system CHRIS a maximum wind speed of 43 mph, at 5000 feet, was found by the government plane.

Time (Z) Lat Lon Altitude Dir Speed Gust Temp Dewp
08:20:00 21.25 -65.65 4997 108 38 38 63 57
08:20:30 21.25 -65.68 5000 109 38 38 63 56
08:21:00 21.25 -65.71 5004 110 38 39 63 56
08:21:30 21.25 -65.75 4997 109 39 39 63 55
08:22:00 21.25 -65.78 5004 108 39 39 64 54
08:22:30 21.25 -65.81 5000 107 40 40 64 55
08:23:00 21.25 -65.85 5000 107 41 41 64 56
08:23:30 21.25 -65.88 5000 106 40 41 64 55
08:24:00 21.25 -65.91 5000 103 41 41 63 56
08:24:30 21.25 -65.95 5000 102 40 41 64 56
08:25:00 21.25 -66 5000 101 41 41 64 56
08:25:30 21.25 -66.03 5000 100 43 43 64 55
08:26:00 21.25 -66.06 5000 99 43 43 64 55
08:26:30 21.25 -66.1 5000 98 40 40 64 55
08:27:00 21.25 -66.13 5000 97 40 40 64 54
08:27:30 21.25 -66.16 5000 93 39 39 64 54
08:28:00 21.25 -66.2 5000 93 37 37 65 55
08:28:30 21.25 -66.23 5004 89 36 36 65 55
08:29:00 21.25 -66.26 4997 87 34 34 65 55
;::; 0 -0 0 0 0 32 32

[mobilebay]

399
SXXX50 KNHC 030851
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 25 KNHC
0839. 2116N 06659W 01524 0098 070 030 176 130 030 01655 0000000000
0840 2116N 06701W 01524 0098 070 030 174 132 031 01655 0000000000
0840. 2116N 06703W 01524 0099 070 031 168 136 032 01656 0000000000
0841 2116N 06705W 01524 0100 067 029 174 132 030 01656 0000000000
0841. 2116N 06707W 01524 0100 069 029 176 132 029 01656 0000000000
0842 2116N 06709W 01524 0101 070 028 176 130 029 01658 0000000000
0842. 2116N 06711W 01524 0100 069 028 174 130 028 01656 0000000000
0843 2116N 06713W 01524 0100 069 027 170 130 027 01657 0000000000
0843. 2116N 06715W 01525 0101 069 028 170 134 028 01658 0000000000
0844 2116N 06717W 01523 0101 070 026 172 134 027 01656 0000000000
0844. 2116N 06719W 01525 0101 068 025 170 134 025 01658 0000000000
0845 2116N 06721W 01524 0101 070 025 170 134 026 01658 0000000000
0845. 2116N 06723W 01524 0101 067 026 170 134 026 01658 0000000000
0846 2116N 06725W 01523 0101 065 025 170 134 026 01657 0000000000
0846. 2116N 06727W 01525 0102 064 026 168 136 027 01659 0000000000
0847 2116N 06729W 01525 0104 065 026 170 136 026 01661 0000000000
0847. 2115N 06730W 01527 0106 062 024 170 136 025 01666 0000000000
0848 2113N 06729W 01520 0101 062 020 170 134 021 01655 0000000000
0848. 2112N 06728W 01526 0101 066 020 170 134 021 01660 0000000000
0849 2111N 06727W 01521 0101 068 021 174 132 021 01655 0000000000
;

[Starburst]

During reconnaissance of tropical system CHRIS a maximum sustained wind speed of 36 mph at 5000 feet, and a maximum wind gust of 37 mph at 5000 feet, were found by the government plane.

Time (Z) Lat Lon Altitude Dir Speed Gust Temp Dewp
08:40:00 21.26 -67.01 5000 70 34 36 63 56
08:40:30 21.26 -67.05 5000 70 36 37 62 56
08:41:00 21.26 -67.08 5000 67 33 34 63 56
08:41:30 21.26 -67.11 5000 69 33 33 64 56
08:42:00 21.26 -67.15 5000 70 32 33 64 55
08:42:30 21.26 -67.18 5000 69 32 32 63 55
08:43:00 21.26 -67.21 5000 69 31 31 63 55
08:43:30 21.26 -67.25 5004 69 32 32 63 56
08:44:00 21.26 -67.28 4997 70 30 31 63 56
08:44:30 21.26 -67.31 5004 68 29 29 63 56
08:45:00 21.26 -67.35 5000 70 29 30 63 56
08:45:30 21.26 -67.38 5000 67 30 30 63 56
08:46:00 21.26 -67.41 4997 65 29 30 63 56
08:46:30 21.26 -67.45 5004 64 30 31 62 56
08:47:00 21.26 -67.48 5004 65 30 30 63 56
08:47:30 21.25 -67.5 5010 62 28 29 63 56
08:48:00 21.21 -67.48 4987 62 23 24 63 56
08:48:30 21.2 -67.46 5007 66 23 24 63 56
08:49:00 21.18 -67.45 4990 68 24 24 63 56
;::; 0 -0 0 0 0 32 32

[TampaFl]

[Ziplock]

One more storm from the past comparison to keep in mind--

Andrew at one point in it's adolescence as a tropical storm, lost it's low and midlevel circulation, leaving an upper level circulation with (if I recall correctly) 45 knot winds, and an astonishingly high pressure at the center of 1017millibars. Along with the loss of the lower circulation, the convection diminished, leaving a near naked upper atmosphere vortex.

This info is on the TPC website...sorry I didn't locate it and post the link, but it is waaay late...

And we all know how Andrew got it's act together in short order...

If Chris had had no hisorty of having a CDO and of being a named system, and was just beginning life as a low level circulation in this location, at this time of year, what would we be calling for? Intensification (in spite of the dry air ahead)? Probably watching it very closely, at the least.

Perhaps it would make sense to view this LLC not as the remnants of a weakening system, but as a seperate feature, with it's own set of possibilities.

It will be an interesting day tomorrow, for sure.

One more thought, didn't Debbie literally outrun herself? As I recall, her forward speed was at least 17 knots...and this forward speed played a large part in her own de-stacking event.

Zip

[TampaFl]

[Grease Monkey]

Interesting. That's good to know.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Thanks, Starbust!

[mobilebay]

Although the actual center is north of the radar range, notice how the band above San Juan is now moving toward the LLC. While the dying MLC is still digging south. Popcorn showers are now developing along the LLC circulation. Maybe, just maybe Chris is trying to make a come back.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[mobilebay]

162
SXXX50 KNHC 030901
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 26 KNHC
0849. 2110N 06725W 01527 0101 069 020 176 128 020 01660 0000000000
0850 2109N 06724W 01521 0101 071 019 176 128 021 01654 0000000000
0850. 2108N 06723W 01526 0100 074 018 176 126 018 01659 0000000000
0851 2107N 06722W 01522 0100 072 018 176 126 020 01655 0000000000
0851. 2106N 06721W 01526 0099 071 019 176 126 019 01658 0000000000
0852 2104N 06719W 01524 0099 069 019 178 126 019 01655 0000000000
0852. 2103N 06718W 01523 0099 066 019 180 126 019 01654 0000000000
0853 2102N 06717W 01528 0099 066 020 178 124 021 01659 0000000000
0853. 2101N 06716W 01520 0098 064 025 176 128 025 01651 0000000000
0854 2100N 06715W 01526 0098 064 025 176 126 026 01657 0000000000
0854. 2059N 06713W 01524 0097 062 025 176 124 025 01654 0000000000
0855 2058N 06712W 01523 0096 062 025 176 128 026 01652 0000000000
0855. 2057N 06711W 01524 0095 061 025 176 122 025 01652 0000000000
0856 2056N 06710W 01526 0095 059 023 176 122 024 01654 0000000000
0856. 2054N 06709W 01521 0095 060 023 180 124 023 01648 0000000000
0857 2053N 06707W 01525 0095 061 023 178 126 023 01652 0000000000
0857. 2052N 06706W 01524 0094 061 024 180 126 024 01650 0000000000
0858 2051N 06705W 01526 0093 057 024 176 128 024 01652 0000000000
0858. 2050N 06704W 01521 0093 058 023 180 130 024 01647 0000000000
0859 2049N 06703W 01526 0092 053 022 180 136 022 01650 0000000000
;