Tropical Storm Chris

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PTrackerLA
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#3121 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:37 am

It's tapping into the convection on it's eastern side and cloud cover seems to be on the increase on the eastern side of the LLC as well but we have yet to see any blowup of convection. If there's nothing for a few more hours I think he will be a goner.
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#3122 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:37 am

Well it's true. Everyone goes nuts over a thunderstorm in the BoC or Carribean, and here we have a nice naked swirl and mostly everyone is writing it off. It's funny how this board works sometimes.
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#3123 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:38 am

CHris will move more northerly of the track since the primary steering is now in the lower levels. So I expect WNW to NW motion until he vertically stacks himself again.
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#3124 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:40 am

PTrackerLA wrote:It's tapping into the convection on it's eastern side and cloud cover seems to be on the increase on the eastern side of the LLC as well but we have yet to see any blowup of convection. If there's nothing for a few more hours I think he will be a goner.


My sentiments also, will be interesting to see if this increasing moisture will lead to convection.
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#3125 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:41 am

skysummit wrote:Let's turn the tables a bit....what if this was an LLC that JUST started to develop. It has not T-storms yet, but a nice swirl. We'd all be going nuts over it. :lol:


That is exactly correct.. a friend and I were talking on the phone last night. I don't have internet right now cause i'm having problems with my cable but, we were talking about how quickly the convection and track of the storm had change all of the sudden. I figured that this may be mid-level shear. It all happend so quickly I figured that the LLC would not have time to move that far south that quickly. It occured to me that the mid-level circulation has decoupled from the low level and looking at the sat loops this morning it looks like this is what happend.

I would not write this off just yet. Chris can still move in between both of the upper level lows after it moves away from this shear. If I was everyone I would not write it off yet just monitor the convection.

We still have a well defined LLC moving generally w to wnw over the next few days and I remember pleanty of times last year when we were track pitifull LLC's called depressions last year.

DON'T WRITE IT OFF YET.

TD 10 was ripped of it's convection and returned to being an open wave. The northern extent of that wave moved into the bahamas and we all know what happend next. Do no make judgments until we have no LLC left over.
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#3126 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:43 am

One thing Ive noticed since I began to get interested in the Tropics...the convection is the easy part. A LLC takes days to close off...convection blows up in a couple of hours. I think we still have the possibilty of Chris coming back.
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#3127 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:46 am

he has 20kts of shear directly over him and will need to get away from that as he moves west in order to survive.
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#3128 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:46 am

Anyone noticing that it's deviating to the north of the NHC track? It's already north of the T+12hr position from 5am . . .
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#3129 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:50 am

The best part about Chris falling apart is it didn't even need Hispaniola, PR, or Cuba to do it. Thank God for that shear!

-Andrew92
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#3130 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:51 am

Convection is inching back towards the LLC. Will he make it or not? I have to say watching Chris on the Shortwave IR decouple last night was one of the most fascinating things I've seen occur in the tropics.
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Tropical Storm Chris Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #5

#3131 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:51 am

Continue discussion....

Thread 1

Thread 2

Thread 3

Thread 4
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#3132 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:53 am

Models are again shifting a tad bit to the north. Let us see if this becomes a trend.

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#3133 Postby Normandy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:54 am

Looking at the visibles his LLC is def not weakening...its still quite vigorous
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#3134 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:57 am

shear is taking it's toll on the LLC right now, but if it can move just 1-3 degrees further west the shear should lighten and that is when Chris will have an oppurtunity to re-organize.
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#3135 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:58 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:shear is taking it's toll on the LLC right now, but if it can move just 1-3 degrees further west the shear should lighten and that is when Chris will have an oppurtunity to re-organize.


Do you see the shear the NW of Chris? The odds are stacking against him.
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#3136 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:59 am

skysummit,I put the other four threads at the first post of thread. :)
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#3137 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:01 am

HouTXmetro wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:shear is taking it's toll on the LLC right now, but if it can move just 1-3 degrees further west the shear should lighten and that is when Chris will have an oppurtunity to re-organize.


Do you see the shear the NW of Chris? The odds are stacking against him.
there is actually very little shear west of Chris, he is moving into a better environment. Even pro mets on this board have said that. He is moving toward the COL.
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#3138 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:01 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:shear is taking it's toll on the LLC right now, but if it can move just 1-3 degrees further west the shear should lighten and that is when Chris will have an oppurtunity to re-organize.


Do you see the shear the NW of Chris? The odds are stacking against him.
there is actually very little shear west of Chris, he is moving into a better environment. Even pro mets on this board have said that. He is moving toward the COL.


What is a COL?
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#3139 Postby Normandy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:02 am

Its the shear NE of him....its brutal.

That ULL to west is moving again also.
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#3140 Postby westmoon » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:02 am

Almost looks like chris is trying to rebuild from the SE ?????
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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