Tropical Storm Chris

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 031801
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 10 KNHC
1749 2017N 06734W 00243 0008 255 014 230 230 015 00263 0000000000
1749. 2019N 06735W 00246 0008 251 015 236 236 015 00264 0000000000
1750 2020N 06736W 00247 0007 256 014 236 236 015 00265 0000000000
1750. 2022N 06736W 00247 0006 248 014 238 238 015 00264 0000000000
1751 2023N 06737W 00246 0005 255 015 238 238 015 00262 0000000000
1751. 2024N 06738W 00248 0004 249 015 238 238 015 00263 0000000000
1752 2026N 06738W 00245 0002 254 013 230 230 015 00259 0000000000
1752. 2027N 06739W 00246 0001 259 013 240 240 014 00259 0000000000
1753 2028N 06740W 00247 0000 265 012 240 240 013 00258 0000000000
1753. 2030N 06740W 00222 5002 270 008 242 242 009 00231 0000000000
1754 2031N 06740W 00208 5004 269 007 244 244 007 00215 0000000000
1754. 2033N 06741W 00207 5005 245 006 246 246 007 00213 0000000000
1755 2034N 06741W 00208 5005 273 001 246 246 003 00214 0000000000
1755. 2036N 06742W 00206 5005 025 005 248 248 007 00212 0000000000
1756 2037N 06742W 00207 5006 029 007 250 250 008 00213 0000000000
1756. 2039N 06743W 00206 5006 036 009 250 250 009 00212 0000000000
1757 2040N 06744W 00208 5006 038 010 250 250 010 00213 0000000000
1757. 2041N 06745W 00206 5005 037 011 250 250 012 00212 0000000000
1758 2042N 06746W 00242 5002 027 013 244 244 013 00251 0000000000
1758. 2043N 06747W 00394 0007 032 012 234 234 012 00412 0000000000
;

[CrazyC83]

It doesn't even look like a cyclone to me. I think the 4pm advisory will be the last one, even if it is a TS-strength storm.

[jasons2k]

OK, just sat down for lunch at my desk and looking at a Chris...

I have to fess-up. A few pages back I was just looking at the water vapor loop that was posted. I committed a cardinal sin in forecasting by not even looking at the visibles. I'm seeing them for the first time today. The LLC does not appear to have any SW component to it but on the water vapor it lools like the whole system is getting squashed to the SW. Looks like shear is still going strong to me.

[StormsAhead]

Center around 27-35 67-42. VDM soon.

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 031758
97779 17164 50190 66200 03300 13010 22228 /0017
41210
RMK AF308 0603A CHRIS OB 01

Surface: wind ENE at 10 knots, pressure 1017mb

[Grease Monkey]

It doesn't even look like a cyclone to me. I think the 4pm advisory will be the last one, even if it is a TS-strength storm.

If it's still TS-strength, I doubt that will be it's last advisory.

[StormsAhead]

URNT12 KNHC 031814
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/17:54:50Z
B. 20 deg 35 min N
067 deg 41 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. 140 deg 069 nm
F. 186 deg 037 kt
G. 140 deg 068 nm
H. EXTRAP 1011 mb
I. 23 C/ 338 m
J. 25 C/ 206 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF308 0603A CHRIS OB 02
MAX FL WIND 38 KT SE QUAD 17:21:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
;

[tgenius]

Almost positive it will be fighting to mantain TD speeds even with the vortex drop

[Normandy]

Still hangin on

[AJC3]

advisories, IMO should be terminated as it is a remnant low.

Not saying it cannot come back, but as of right now, its a remnant low that is trying to come back, but the thermodynamics are very unfavorable (and the dynamics are not much better)

A little too soon to do that operationally, especially given that there is some sporadic convection firing in the eastern quadrant. Wouldn't look too good if the convective trend went on the uptick, which could occur.

[drezee]

Storm CHRIS: Observed By AF #308
Storm #03 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 38KT (43.7mph 70.4km/h) In SE Quadrant At 17:21:00 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 34.2KT (39.3mph 63.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: LP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Thursday, August 03, 2006 1:54:00 PM (Thu, 3 Aug 2006 17:54:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 20° 35' N 067° 41' W (20.6°N 67.7°W) [See Map]

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 40 KT (46MPH 74.1km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 069nm (79.35miles) From Center At Bearing 140°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 037KT (42.55mph 68.5km/h) From 186°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 068nm (78.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 140°
Minimum pressure: 1011mb (29.85in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500ft
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 6nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[Scorpion]

1011 mb! It strengthened!

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like Chris actually strengthened? It is down 1mb.

URNT12 KNHC 031814
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/17:54:50Z
B. 20 deg 35 min N
067 deg 41 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. 140 deg 069 nm
F. 186 deg 037 kt
G. 140 deg 068 nm
H. EXTRAP 1011 mb
I. 23 C/ 338 m
J. 25 C/ 206 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF308 0603A CHRIS OB 02
MAX FL WIND 38 KT SE QUAD 17:21:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
;

[CrazyC83]

It doesn't even look like a cyclone to me. I think the 4pm advisory will be the last one, even if it is a TS-strength storm.

If it's still TS-strength, I doubt that will be it's last advisory.

2004's Earl was declared an open wave and stopped monitoring while still at TS-strength...

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 031811
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 11 KNHC
1759 2044N 06748W 00407 0010 032 014 230 230 015 00428 0000000000
1759. 2045N 06749W 00413 0011 033 016 228 228 017 00435 0000000000
1800 2046N 06751W 00413 0011 033 018 226 226 018 00436 0000000000
1800. 2048N 06752W 00412 0012 034 020 226 226 020 00435 0000000000
1801 2049N 06753W 00414 0013 034 021 226 226 021 00438 0000000000
1801. 2050N 06754W 00411 0014 038 021 226 226 021 00436 0000000000
1802 2051N 06755W 00414 0015 037 022 226 226 022 00441 0000000000
1802. 2052N 06756W 00414 0014 040 022 224 224 023 00442 0000000000
1803 2053N 06758W 00405 0016 041 023 226 226 024 00433 0000000000
1803. 2054N 06759W 00391 0017 043 024 226 226 025 00419 0000000000
1804 2055N 06800W 00301 0013 043 024 232 232 024 00325 0000000000
1804. 2056N 06801W 00269 0011 042 025 236 236 025 00291 0000000000
1805 2057N 06802W 00256 0011 043 024 236 236 024 00279 0000000000
1805. 2058N 06804W 00262 0012 045 024 236 236 025 00285 0000000000
1806 2059N 06805W 00264 0013 045 025 236 236 026 00289 0000000000
1806. 2100N 06806W 00259 0014 047 025 236 236 025 00285 0000000000
1807 2101N 06807W 00259 0015 047 025 236 236 025 00285 0000000000
1807. 2102N 06808W 00234 0015 046 025 238 238 026 00260 0000000000
1808 2104N 06809W 00220 0013 046 025 240 240 025 00244 0000000000
1808. 2105N 06811W 00269 0017 048 026 236 236 026 00297 0000000000
;

[x-y-no]

The flight appears to be at 1500 feet, meaning a .75 reduction factor is used

Yes, 1500 feet is what they're trying to fly ...

They must be hitting a lot of up/down drafts though - their altitude has bounced around between 220 and 346 meters. They're usually alot steadier than that.

[miamicanes177]

advisories, IMO should be terminated as it is a remnant low.

Not saying it cannot come back, but as of right now, its a remnant low that is trying to come back, but the thermodynamics are very unfavorable (and the dynamics are not much better)

It looks like the shear is about 5-10kts just past hispaniola. Are you looking for some intensification once it reaches this more favorable area?

[Scorpion]

No, it didn't strengthen. NHC was probably just 1 mb off with their estimate.

[stormtruth]

1011 mb! It strengthened!

chris is getting so powerful

[StormsAhead]