Tropical Storm Chris

[miamicanes177]

I have to agree that this is not a TS at this point

Could become one again, but likely not until moving into the GOM (and chances there are less than 50/50)

This is a tropical storm according to the experts at the NHC.

[dwg71]

EWG - they say "chance" - but don't think so. Go with them, you'll be right more than your wrong. No one has said, No chance of redevelopment, but right now there are not any signs of it. LLC dont last 48 hours w/o convection. It will open up soon if it doesnt fire deep convection around the center.

[Derek Ortt]

I only remember something this badly sheared coming back twice.

Barry in 2001 and Jeanne in 2004 (though a completely new center formed, and the mountains aided its poor state)

Both took many days to recover

[Rainband]

I could win lotto too. Seriously I think this one is toast. The models were dead on with dissipation. Our local mets said it is going to be going wnw to Texas but most likely will be nothing more than a couple of thuderstorms.

[Derek Ortt]

and I disagree with the NHC assessment right now, but scientists in the same field do disagree.. its how science is advanced

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Your right, the models did well showing the dissipation.

[dwg71]

and I disagree with the NHC assessment right now, but scientists in the same field do disagree.. its how science is advanced

The world is still flat though...look at water vapor my computer monitor doesn't bulge out like it would if it were round

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 032130
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 31 KNHC
2119 2143N 06657W 00373 0044 135 022 210 210 023 00428 0000000000
2119. 2142N 06658W 00372 0044 134 023 210 210 023 00427 0000000000
2120 2141N 06700W 00370 0043 130 022 210 210 023 00425 0000000000
2120. 2140N 06701W 00373 0043 132 023 210 210 024 00428 0000000000
2121 2139N 06702W 00376 0042 132 023 210 210 024 00430 0000000000
2121. 2138N 06703W 00370 0042 132 025 210 210 026 00424 0000000000
2122 2137N 06705W 00372 0041 135 026 210 210 026 00425 0000000000
2122. 2136N 06706W 00373 0041 137 026 210 210 026 00426 0000000000
2123 2134N 06707W 00374 0041 137 025 210 210 025 00426 0000000000
2123. 2133N 06708W 00373 0040 134 025 210 210 026 00424 0000000000
2124 2132N 06709W 00373 0040 133 024 210 210 025 00424 0000000000
2124. 2131N 06711W 00367 0040 138 026 214 214 028 00419 0000000000
2125 2130N 06712W 00373 0039 140 029 212 212 029 00423 0000000000
2125. 2129N 06713W 00372 0038 142 027 210 210 028 00422 0000000000
2126 2128N 06714W 00373 0038 143 028 212 212 028 00422 0000000000
2126. 2127N 06715W 00372 0038 143 030 212 212 034 00421 0000000000
2127 2126N 06716W 00374 0037 141 031 210 210 034 00423 0000000000
2127. 2125N 06718W 00370 0037 141 029 210 210 030 00419 0000000000
2128 2123N 06719W 00372 0037 143 032 208 208 034 00420 0000000000
2128. 2122N 06720W 00373 0036 144 033 206 206 033 00421 0000000000

[miamicanes177]

5-10kts of shear is directly ahead of Chris at this point. I am certainly not jumping on the dissipation bandwagon at this point. It has maintained its intensity in a hostile enviornment. If it can hold on for another 12-24 hours then I believe this could be a storm we will need to deal with in the GOM down the road.

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 032131
97779 21074 50220 66600 03700 14022 22221 /0017
41325
RMK AF308 0603A CHRIS OB 09

Surface SE at 25 knots; 1017mb

[Wx_Warrior]

Yes, exciting too watch and look at because nothing immediate right now...But lets not make a mountain out of a molehill....Chrissy-poo will take us on a ride the remaining of the week trying to gain strength, etc....Yes it could gain some strength in the old GOM but nothing of BIG proportions but something to atleast agree to disagree and argue about!

And yes, us mets get along...Some are smarter than others! JUST KIDDING!!!!

[StormsAhead]

[StormsAhead]

Recon is going to go through the center in about 15 minutes (NE quad).

[Rainband]

Our local met also said that they are saying this is a tropical storm becuase they think that there is a tiny possibility that there are TS winds in squalls and will most likely downgrade it in the next advisory.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 032141
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 32 KNHC
2129 2121N 06721W 00370 0035 143 031 204 204 033 00417 0000000000
2129. 2120N 06722W 00299 0032 140 031 210 210 032 00342 0000000000
2130 2119N 06723W 00275 0029 146 032 212 212 034 00315 0000000000
2130. 2118N 06724W 00277 0027 148 034 210 210 037 00316 0000000000
2131 2117N 06725W 00274 0026 150 035 212 212 036 00312 0000000000
2131. 2116N 06727W 00278 0026 146 034 210 210 036 00315 0000000000
2132 2115N 06728W 00276 0026 144 037 210 210 037 00314 0000000000
2132. 2114N 06729W 00276 0025 146 037 208 208 038 00313 0000000000
2133 2113N 06730W 00278 0024 145 039 196 196 039 00313 0000000000
2133. 2112N 06731W 00273 0023 147 038 214 214 039 00307 0000000000
2134 2111N 06732W 00281 0023 133 038 216 216 038 00315 0000000000
2134. 2110N 06733W 00279 0022 129 036 218 218 038 00312 0000000000
2135 2109N 06734W 00322 0023 133 036 216 216 037 00356 0000000000
2135. 2108N 06736W 00337 0023 137 036 214 214 037 00371 0000000000
2136 2107N 06737W 00339 0022 136 035 214 214 036 00373 0000000000
2136. 2106N 06738W 00336 0021 138 038 212 212 040 00368 0000000000
2137 2104N 06739W 00336 0020 142 041 216 216 041 00367 0000000000
2137. 2103N 06740W 00339 0019 142 039 214 214 040 00369 0000000000
2138 2102N 06741W 00338 0017 141 039 216 216 040 00366 0000000000
2138. 2101N 06742W 00337 0016 142 041 216 216 041 00364 0000000000
;

[StormsAhead]

41 knots at FL in the NE quad so far

[dwg71]

Our local met also said that they are saying this is a tropical storm becuase they think that there is a tiny possibility that there are TS winds in squalls and will most likely downgrade it in the next advisory.

Your local met must have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night. That's my opinion as well, they just are being cautious and deliberate.

[wxman57]

What's with the 90% FL reduction? Isn't the standard reduction from 1500 ft. 70%? 1500 ft is the height of a hurricane's max winds, typically, so the reduction there is greatest.

[jasons2k]

main difference is, I am supposed to make the correct call 100% of the time. Had people at the office worried, apparantly for no reason

Don't sweat it. It's better to get a little worried over nothing than to be completely blase and miss a Mack truck.

[WindRunner]

What's with the 90% FL reduction? Isn't the standard reduction from 1500 ft. 70%? 1500 ft is the height of a hurricane's max winds, typically, so the reduction there is greatest.

IIRC, it's usually 70-75%, but this isn't quite your traditional hurricane. Probably a .8 or so is more appropriate (or at least so we have been using on previous missions).