Tropical Storm Chris

Rainband · #3561 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:17 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:The Upper low causing the shear seems to be moving west along with the swirl. As i said earlier i would be very surprised if it really re generated.

Makes sense

#3562 Postby **tgenius** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:17 pm

StormsAhead wrote:The low-level center made a jog to the WSW in the last hour...motion has been just north of west over the past 2 hours at 14 knots.

it looks a little above the forecast points off AVN imagery

StormsAhead · #3563 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:18 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 032210
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 35 KNHC
2159 2052N 06830W 00338 5001 029 020 236 236 021 00349 0000000000
2159. 2053N 06831W 00338 0000 032 021 234 234 021 00350 0000000000
2200 2054N 06833W 00338 0001 036 022 236 236 022 00351 0000000000
2200. 2055N 06834W 00336 0003 036 022 236 236 023 00350 0000000000
2201 2056N 06835W 00339 0004 040 024 234 234 024 00354 0000000000
2201. 2057N 06836W 00336 0005 042 024 230 230 025 00353 0000000000
2202 2058N 06837W 00338 0006 046 025 232 232 025 00355 0000000000
2202. 2059N 06838W 00337 0007 047 025 232 232 026 00356 0000000000
2203 2101N 06839W 00338 0009 051 026 230 230 026 00358 0000000000
2203. 2102N 06841W 00330 0009 053 026 234 234 026 00350 0000000000
2204 2103N 06842W 00322 0009 054 026 230 230 027 00343 0000000000
2204. 2104N 06843W 00304 0009 053 028 232 232 029 00324 0000000000
2205 2105N 06844W 00307 0010 055 029 230 230 029 00329 0000000000
2205. 2106N 06845W 00308 0011 055 031 234 234 032 00330 0000000000
2206 2107N 06846W 00307 0012 057 032 228 228 032 00330 0000000000
2206. 2109N 06848W 00307 0013 056 032 230 230 032 00331 0000000000
2207 2110N 06849W 00306 0014 056 031 230 230 032 00332 0000000000
2207. 2111N 06850W 00307 0015 054 031 228 228 031 00333 0000000000
2208 2112N 06851W 00307 0015 054 031 226 226 031 00333 0000000000
2208. 2113N 06852W 00308 0016 057 032 226 226 032 00336 0000000000
;

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #3564 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:19 pm

I agree the tutt is moving westward with the system, but that doe's not mean that Chris will not fight like heck. He is not fighting like Irene but he is better defined then Irene so its a trade off. Once he is into the gulf things might change.

miamicanes177 · #3565 Postby **miamicanes177** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:20 pm

Well Chris has maintained intensity today so unless the shear really starts to ramp up soon, Chris will indeed enter favorable conditions as a tropical storm.

StormsAhead · #3566 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:21 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 032220
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 36 KNHC
2209 2114N 06853W 00306 0017 058 032 226 226 032 00334 0000000000
2209. 2115N 06855W 00308 0017 060 031 226 226 033 00336 0000000000
2210 2116N 06856W 00307 0018 061 031 226 226 031 00336 0000000000
2210. 2118N 06857W 00305 0019 059 032 224 224 033 00336 0000000000
2211 2119N 06858W 00309 0020 062 033 226 226 034 00340 0000000000
2211. 2120N 06859W 00307 0020 060 031 226 226 032 00339 0000000000
2212 2121N 06901W 00306 0021 061 032 226 226 033 00338 0000000000
2212. 2122N 06902W 00307 0021 060 032 230 230 034 00340 0000000000
2213 2123N 06903W 00306 0022 061 031 230 230 033 00340 0000000000
2213. 2125N 06904W 00307 0023 062 031 230 230 033 00342 0000000000
2214 2126N 06905W 00307 0023 065 031 230 230 032 00342 0000000000
2214. 2127N 06907W 00307 0024 066 031 232 232 033 00342 0000000000
2215 2128N 06908W 00306 0025 065 031 230 230 033 00342 0000000000
2215. 2129N 06909W 00308 0025 065 031 230 230 032 00344 0000000000
2216 2130N 06910W 00307 0025 068 031 232 232 032 00344 0000000000
2216. 2132N 06911W 00306 0026 066 029 230 230 029 00344 0000000000
2217 2133N 06913W 00307 0026 066 029 230 230 030 00345 0000000000
2217. 2134N 06914W 00307 0027 067 030 232 232 033 00345 0000000000
2218 2135N 06915W 00306 0027 066 029 230 230 030 00345 0000000000
2218. 2136N 06916W 00308 0028 067 029 230 230 030 00347 0000000000
;

StormsAhead · #3567 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:23 pm

PTrackerLA · #3568 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:34 pm

There are more thunderstorms near the center than we have seen all day however the shear is very strong. He still has a little fight left in him and I think if it wasn't creating these thunderstorms it would have been downgraded by now.

StormsAhead · #3569 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:35 pm

URNT11 KNHC 032230
97779 22244 50218 69500 03100 07030 23231 /0015
40625
RMK AF308 0603A CHRIS OB 11

NW turnpoint: ENE wind at 25 knots; 1015mb

StormsAhead · #3570 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:35 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 032230
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 37 KNHC
2219 2137N 06917W 00306 0028 065 029 230 230 031 00345 0000000000
2219. 2139N 06919W 00307 0028 064 028 230 230 029 00347 0000000000
2220 2140N 06920W 00307 0028 065 029 230 230 030 00347 0000000000
2220. 2141N 06921W 00306 0029 067 029 234 230 030 00346 0000000000
2221 2142N 06922W 00307 0029 068 031 236 224 032 00347 0000000000
2221. 2143N 06924W 00307 0030 068 030 232 232 031 00348 0000000000
2222 2144N 06925W 00307 0030 069 029 230 230 029 00348 0000000000
2222. 2146N 06926W 00307 0030 068 030 232 226 030 00349 0000000000
2223 2147N 06927W 00307 0030 071 029 234 234 030 00349 0000000000
2223. 2148N 06928W 00306 0030 072 031 234 228 033 00348 0000000000
2224 2149N 06930W 00308 0031 071 030 232 232 031 00350 0000000000
2224. 2150N 06931W 00307 0031 068 030 234 234 031 00350 0000000000
2225 2151N 06932W 00307 0032 067 030 236 234 031 00350 0000000000
2225. 2153N 06933W 00308 0032 066 030 236 234 031 00351 0000000000
2226 2154N 06935W 00306 0033 064 028 236 236 029 00350 00000000V
2226. 2153N 06936W 00309 0033 061 028 236 236 028 00353 0000000000
2227 2152N 06936W 00306 0032 060 026 236 236 028 00349 0000000000
2227. 2150N 06936W 00307 0031 058 028 236 236 029 00350 0000000000
2228 2149N 06936W 00309 0031 061 027 234 234 028 00352 0000000000
2228. 2147N 06936W 00303 0030 062 029 234 232 031 00345 0000000000
;

chrisnnavarre · #3571 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:36 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:The Upper low causing the shear seems to be moving west along with the swirl. As i said earlier i would be very surprised if it really re generated.

It looks like it already has regenerated to me. He seems to be north of projected track as well. Unless something shears this off, he seems to be intent on wraping himself up just as he hits the islands and proceeds north of Cuba. I forsee a bad situation for some of the folks in the Keys and Southern Florida. I hope lots of these people have not turned their back away from this one.

Stratosphere747 · #3572 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:37 pm

He is a pesky little guy..

Just a hint of convection on his NE area. Can't see it lasting long with the shear..

Extremeweatherguy · #3573 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:40 pm

Chris is sure fighting like mad right now. Who knows, may be he will be able to fight off the shear, move out of the way of the feature to his NE and work into a more favorable environment. Either way I think at the very least we can expect advisories to continue through at least tomorrow morning, and this could very well reach the Gulf as an organized system (where it may have a chance to become a stronger TS or dare I say Hurricane).

#3574 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:41 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Chris is sure fighting like mad right now. Who knows, may be he will be able to fight off the shear, move out of the way of the feature to his NE and work into a more favorable environment. Either way I think at the very least we can expect advisories to continue through at least tomorrow morning, and this could very well reach the Gulf as an organized system (where it may have a chance to become a stronger TS or dare I say Hurricane).

I have to wonder, EWG, if you willed him back to life! :lol:

Extremeweatherguy · #3575 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:42 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Chris is sure fighting like mad right now. Who knows, may be he will be able to fight off the shear, move out of the way of the feature to his NE and work into a more favorable environment. Either way I think at the very least we can expect advisories to continue through at least tomorrow morning, and this could very well reach the Gulf as an organized system (where it may have a chance to become a stronger TS or dare I say Hurricane).

I have to wonder, EWG, if you willed him back to life!

lol. Don't blame it on me!

StormsAhead · #3576 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:42 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 032240
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 38 KNHC
2229 2145N 06936W 00314 0030 058 027 232 232 028 00355 0000000000
2229. 2143N 06936W 00306 0030 059 027 234 234 028 00348 0000000000
2230 2142N 06936W 00309 0030 057 028 234 234 030 00351 0000000000
2230. 2140N 06936W 00306 0030 057 026 234 234 027 00348 0000000000
2231 2138N 06935W 00306 0030 058 028 234 234 029 00347 0000000000
2231. 2136N 06935W 00308 0029 057 027 232 232 028 00349 0000000000
2232 2134N 06935W 00307 0029 056 027 232 232 028 00347 0000000000
2232. 2132N 06935W 00308 0028 053 026 230 230 026 00348 0000000000
2233 2131N 06935W 00312 0028 053 027 230 230 028 00351 0000000000
2233. 2129N 06935W 00308 0028 051 026 232 232 028 00348 0000000000
2234 2127N 06935W 00307 0028 050 027 232 226 027 00346 0000000000
2234. 2125N 06935W 00308 0027 050 028 232 230 028 00346 0000000000
2235 2122N 06935W 00307 0026 048 026 234 234 027 00345 0000000000
2235. 2120N 06935W 00307 0026 046 026 236 232 027 00344 0000000000
2236 2118N 06935W 00307 0026 047 026 234 234 026 00344 0000000000
2236. 2116N 06935W 00308 0025 047 025 234 234 026 00345 0000000000
2237 2114N 06935W 00307 0025 045 025 234 234 026 00343 0000000000
2237. 2112N 06935W 00307 0025 043 025 234 234 025 00343 0000000000
2238 2110N 06935W 00307 0024 042 024 234 234 025 00342 0000000000
2238. 2108N 06935W 00307 0024 040 023 234 234 024 00342 0000000000

WindRunner · #3577 Postby **WindRunner** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:42 pm

I count 28 lightning strikes in Chris' SE quad in the past 20 minutes . . . definately firing up . . .

Stormavoider · #3578 Postby **Stormavoider** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:45 pm

WindRunner wrote:I count 28 lightning strikes in Chris' SE quad in the past 20 minutes . . . definately firing up . . .

Is there a public link to that data?

miamicanes177 · #3579 Postby **miamicanes177** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:45 pm

Nearing an area of 5-10kts of wind shear

CocoCreek · #3580 Postby **CocoCreek** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:47 pm

WindRunner wrote:I count 28 lightning strikes in Chris' SE quad in the past 20 minutes . . . definately firing up . . .

Where do you find images of systems in the tropics that show individual lightning strikes?

Tropical Storm Chris

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