Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #361 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat May 13, 2006 12:50 am

How many people live in Hong kong and what would a cat3 or cat4 do to it?

Derecho · #362 Postby **Derecho** » Sat May 13, 2006 1:58 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:How many people live in Hong kong and what would a cat3 or cat4 do to it?

About 7 million.

Interestingly while Hong Kong is constantly hit by Typhoons (usually every 4-5 years) they all seem to be pretty week.

One of the Discovery Channel "Mega Disasters" is a Supertyphoon hitting Hong Kong, though I haven't seen that episode (DVRed a couple of other ones I haven't watched...knowing they're heavy on the drama stuff other than the science has made me not real enthusiastic about watching.)

A Category 3 or above would be pretty bad. Really looks thermodynamically impossible for Chanchu to actually hit as a Super Typhoon, looking at the heat content maps; not quite the right time of year, if this was September or October it would be a much worse situation.

CHRISTY · #363 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat May 13, 2006 3:08 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 962.3mb/ 90.0kt

Looks like its going to weaken slightly before it makes landfall near Hongkong...

James · #364 Postby **James** » Sat May 13, 2006 4:23 am

Now that it's emerged over water, the inner core seems to be rebuilding again.

#365 Postby **Dave C** » Sat May 13, 2006 5:31 am

Does anyone have a link to sea surface temps in West Pac? Thanks!

HurricaneHunter914 · #366 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat May 13, 2006 7:55 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... r-nh11.GIF

Banding Features have increased, more covection has formed near the center, and it looks like there is an eye in the making for Typhoon Chanchu.

#367 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat May 13, 2006 8:38 am

Death toll increases to 24.

http://www.swissinfo.org/eng/internatio ... 7524886000

#368 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 13, 2006 9:29 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 14.0N 119.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 280NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 14.4N 115.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
48HF 151200UTC 15.6N 114.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 161200UTC 18.1N 113.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT =

Officially it's at 60kts so still a Tropical Storm.Yes it's hard to believe right but JMA is the official word in that part of the word.

#369 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat May 13, 2006 9:48 am

Luis, isn't that 60 knots 10-min which would equal to 68 knots 1-min (a typhoon)?

#370 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 13, 2006 9:51 am

HURAKAN wrote:Luis, isn't that 60 knots 10-min which would equal to 68 knots 1-min (a typhoon)?

Yes Sandy,you are right.Finnally they upgraded to a typhoon.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #371 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat May 13, 2006 10:19 am

Well... it's still not technically a typhoon. Typhoon status is 65KT (10-min) or 74KT (1-min).

Dave C wrote:Does anyone have a link to sea surface temps in West Pac? Thanks!

http://www.remss.com/hurricane/RT_image ... wp_sst.jpg
http://www.remss.com/hurricane/RT_image ... p_anom.jpg

HurricaneHunter914 · #372 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat May 13, 2006 11:50 am

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/wp200602.gif

Wunderground has Chanchu at 90 mph. Is that accurate?

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #373 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat May 13, 2006 11:54 am

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/wp200602.gif

Wunderground has Chanchu at 90 mph. Is that accurate?

That is JTWC's numbers. It isn't official, but it's better than nothing.

#374 Postby **Dave C** » Sat May 13, 2006 12:01 pm

Looking at latest obs from Hong Kong drier air has moved in. Hopefully this will still be around to be drawn in to systems circulation as it approaches landfall.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/VHHH.html

Scorpion · #375 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat May 13, 2006 12:03 pm

I doubt this will become a major typhoon now. Maybe 100 mph at tops.

HurricaneHunter914 · #376 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat May 13, 2006 12:35 pm

Well have to wait and see.

whereverwx · #377 Postby **whereverwx** » Sat May 13, 2006 12:59 pm

IMO, it looks much better than it did before.

HurricaneHunter914 · #378 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat May 13, 2006 1:05 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... r-nh11.GIF

Looks very good and with low shear in from of it a super typhoon status doesn't look so impossible for it.

#379 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat May 13, 2006 1:06 pm

HurricaneHunter914 · #380 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat May 13, 2006 1:08 pm

A majority of models kill Chanchu off in 3 days wonder why.

Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

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