Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[Windtalker1]

let the recurve begin - models shifting right it looks like and showing the curve happening between 40W and 45W.

I don't think I'm seeing what everyone else is seeing....I don't see a major curve to the NNW here but a heading of WNW on 8 of the models, and 1 even curving back to the west at the end. May be too low to get a major curve to the North like Flo & Gordon.

[Patrick99]

good news is, it looks like we are in the clear again. what a great season as far as being safe goes.

You call it great....and I call it boring. I'm sorry to not be politically correct...but I can't stand seasons that see storms recurving one after the other. I am a little addicted to nature's fury. After getting brushed/hit by so many storms the past few years, I feel somewhat deprived!

[danman]

let the recurve begin - models shifting right it looks like and showing the curve happening between 40W and 45W.

I don't think I'm seeing what everyone else is seeing....I don't see a major curve to the NNW here but a heading of WNW on 8 of the models, and 1 even curving back to the west at the end. May be too low to get a major curve to the North like Flo & Gordon.

holy crappola

[Bocadude85]

I don't know why Georges was so hyped here. It was a minimal Cat 1 and headed towards the Keys. We are over 150 miles north of them. I remember getting a day or two off school, and many people put shutters.

Georges hit Florida at 90 knots.. thats 105mph, thats a cat 2 not a minimal cat 1

[skysummit]

Those models are 12z! The new 18z runs show a much earlier recurve!

[Windtalker1]

Those models are 12z! The new 18z runs show a much earlier recurve!

Lets see them then...Thanks

[sma10]

let the recurve begin - models shifting right it looks like and showing the curve happening between 40W and 45W.

I don't think I'm seeing what everyone else is seeing....I don't see a major curve to the NNW here but a heading of WNW on 8 of the models, and 1 even curving back to the west at the end. May be too low to get a major curve to the North like Flo & Gordon.

The reason this may seem misleading is because the track guidance goes out only 5 days.

Make no mistake, TD8/Helene will be on our radar screen for days to come. The expected recurvature will not happen for DAYS. Unlike Florence and Gordon where the recurve commenced fairly quickly, TD8 should continue w/wnw for the balance of this week. IF she recurves, you're going to see it occur in the day 5-7 period.

What I'm trying to say is that if these track lines went out an ADDITIONAL three days or so, you'd probably see a pronounced northward movement.

[AnnularCane]

I know many of you don't care about the islands but Georges (1998) killed 603 people and caused nearly $6 billion of damage, mostly in PR and Hispaniola..

Yes, Georges was very devastating to the Greater Antilles. In fact, it was the Greater Antilles alone that protected the Keys and probably the Gulf Coast from a tragic hit. As I recall, the upper level environment for Georges during his trek through the islands was ideal. It was land interaction ONLY that prevented him from being a catastrophic hurricane heading into the Gulf.

I remember Georges was supposed to get back to a major hurricane in the Gulf. Did something prevent that?

[Windtalker1]

I don't agree. I see a few models wanting to head back west.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Those models are 12z! The new 18z runs show a much earlier recurve!

Lets see them then...Thanks

[skysummit]

Those models are 12z! The new 18z runs show a much earlier recurve!

Lets see them then...Thanks

The tropical models are 18z:

[Bailey1777]

Patrick99 how old are you?

[Windtalker1]

Still see 4 wanting to keep it WNW

[sma10]

I know many of you don't care about the islands but Georges (1998) killed 603 people and caused nearly $6 billion of damage, mostly in PR and Hispaniola..

Yes, Georges was very devastating to the Greater Antilles. In fact, it was the Greater Antilles alone that protected the Keys and probably the Gulf Coast from a tragic hit. As I recall, the upper level environment for Georges during his trek through the islands was ideal. It was land interaction ONLY that prevented him from being a catastrophic hurricane heading into the Gulf.

I remember Georges was supposed to get back to a major hurricane in the Gulf. Did something prevent that?

After spending days over land, he never totally got his "mojo" back

[danman]

so who thinks this one could be "the" one this season?

[flhurricaneguy]

patrick99 i have been hit by 4 hurricanes in the last 2 years and brushed by 2 more. i take it you dont own a home?

[skysummit]

so who thinks this one could be "the" one this season?

I thought this could be "the" one since before the season started.

[sma10]

Still see 4 wanting to keep it WNW

Keep in mind that not all models are created equally. The NHC places more weight and emphasis on certain models. They very much like to concentrate on the GFDL and Globals for their track forecasts, and these are showing unanimous consensus towards recurve. At least, that is what they show now.

[sma10]

I thought this could be "the" one since before the season started.

?? Based on....? Tarot cards or dart board?

[danman]

I thought this could be "the" one since before the season started.

?? Based on....? Tarot cards or dart board?

gut instinct and your professional opinion