Tropical Storm Chris

[StormsAhead]

how much longer in chris?

when is th next flight?

This plane will be in the storm for about another hour. The next AF flight will depart around 12:15 AM.

[N2FSU]

This is NOT to suggest Chris is going to do the same, but here is a follow up to something someone posted in another forum regarding an infamous storm from 1992 that came back from the dead:

From the NHC archives:

..."The change in track also brought the tropical storm into an environment of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and quite high surface pressures to its north. Although the estimated maximum wind speed of Andrew varied little then, a rather remarkable evolution occurred.

Satellite images suggest that Andrew produced deep convection only sporadically for several days, mainly in several bursts of about 12 hours duration. Also, the deep convection did not persist. Instead, it was stripped away from the low-level circulation by the strong southwesterly flow at upper levels. Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigated Andrew and, on the 20th, found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained. Andrew's central pressure rose considerably (Fig. 2 [87K GIF]). Nevertheless, the flight-level data indicated that Andrew retained a vigorous circulation aloft. Wind speeds near 70 kt were measured at an altitude of 1500 ft near a convective band lying to the northeast of the low-level center. Hence, Andrew is estimated on 20 August to have been a tropical storm with 40 kt surface winds and an astonishingly high central pressure of 1015 mb (Figs. 2 and 3 [87K GIF]).

Significant changes in the large-scale environment near and downstream from Andrew began by 21 August. Satellite imagery in the water vapor channel indicated that the low aloft to the east-southeast of Bermuda weakened and split. The bulk of the low opened into a trough which retreated northward. That evolution decreased the vertical wind shear over Andrew. The remainder of the low dropped southward to a position just southwest of Andrew where its circulation enhanced the upper-level outflow over the tropical storm. At the same time, a strong and deep high pressure cell formed near the U.S. southeast coast. A ridge built eastward from the high into the southwestern Atlantic with its axis lying just north of Andrew. The associated steering flow over the tropical storm became easterly. Andrew turned toward the west, accelerated to near 16 kt, and quickly intensified."

[JonathanBelles]

how much longer in chris?

when is th next flight?

This plane will be in the storm for about another hour. The next AF flight will depart around 12:15 AM.

ok thanx

[miamicanes177]

There is a pocket of 30kt shear extending from the southern tip of florida into northern Cuba. Anybody know if that is expected to let up any?

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 032303
97779 22584 50197 69500 03100 32011 24242 /0015
43310
RMK AF308 0603A CHRIS OB 12

Surface NNW at 10kts, 1015mb

[ROCK]

There is a pocket of 30kt shear extending from the southern tip of florida into northern Cuba. Anybody know if that is expected to let up any?

probably when that ULL near FL moves out. I thought it was progged to move west over the day but really didnt go anywhere.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 032310
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 41 KNHC
2259 1939N 06932W 00308 0031 321 009 240 230 010 00351 0000000000
2259. 1937N 06930W 00309 0031 293 008 236 230 009 00351 0000000000
2300 1938N 06928W 00304 0031 284 006 238 234 006 00347 0000000000
2300. 1940N 06927W 00309 0031 294 006 240 230 007 00351 0000000000
2301 1942N 06926W 00308 0030 293 006 238 232 006 00349 0000000000
2301. 1944N 06925W 00305 0030 304 006 236 232 007 00346 0000000000
2302 1945N 06923W 00307 0029 306 008 236 224 008 00348 0000000000
2302. 1946N 06921W 00308 0029 310 008 236 232 008 00349 0000000000
2303 1947N 06919W 00307 0029 303 007 236 232 008 00347 0000000000
2303. 1948N 06917W 00307 0028 305 008 238 230 008 00346 0000000000
2304 1949N 06915W 00307 0027 301 008 238 234 009 00345 0000000000
2304. 1950N 06913W 00307 0026 301 009 236 236 009 00345 0000000000
2305 1951N 06912W 00308 0026 313 007 236 236 007 00346 0000000000
2305. 1953N 06911W 00307 0025 318 007 236 236 008 00343 0000000000
2306 1955N 06910W 00307 0025 310 007 236 236 007 00344 0000000000
2306. 1957N 06908W 00307 0025 311 006 236 236 007 00344 0000000000
2307 1958N 06907W 00307 0024 309 007 236 236 007 00342 0000000000
2307. 2000N 06906W 00307 0024 304 007 236 236 007 00342 0000000000
2308 2001N 06904W 00307 0023 303 008 236 236 008 00342 0000000000
2308. 2003N 06903W 00307 0023 309 008 236 236 008 00341 0000000000
;

[Bailey1777]

Any of the pro-mets chime in please. At this point in time what are your thoughts on Chris and the environment he is heading into compared to say 16hrs ago.

[stormtruth]

This is NOT to suggest Chris is going to do the same, but here is a follow up to something someone posted in another forum regarding an infamous storm from 1992 that came back from the dead:

From the NHC archives:

..."The change in track also brought the tropical storm into an environment of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and quite high surface pressures to its north. Although the estimated maximum wind speed of Andrew varied little then, a rather remarkable evolution occurred.

Satellite images suggest that Andrew produced deep convection only sporadically for several days, mainly in several bursts of about 12 hours duration. Also, the deep convection did not persist. Instead, it was stripped away from the low-level circulation by the strong southwesterly flow at upper levels. Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigated Andrew and, on the 20th, found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained. Andrew's central pressure rose considerably (Fig. 2 [87K GIF]). Nevertheless, the flight-level data indicated that Andrew retained a vigorous circulation aloft. Wind speeds near 70 kt were measured at an altitude of 1500 ft near a convective band lying to the northeast of the low-level center. Hence, Andrew is estimated on 20 August to have been a tropical storm with 40 kt surface winds and an astonishingly high central pressure of 1015 mb (Figs. 2 and 3 [87K GIF]).

Significant changes in the large-scale environment near and downstream from Andrew began by 21 August. Satellite imagery in the water vapor channel indicated that the low aloft to the east-southeast of Bermuda weakened and split. The bulk of the low opened into a trough which retreated northward. That evolution decreased the vertical wind shear over Andrew. The remainder of the low dropped southward to a position just southwest of Andrew where its circulation enhanced the upper-level outflow over the tropical storm. At the same time, a strong and deep high pressure cell formed near the U.S. southeast coast. A ridge built eastward from the high into the southwestern Atlantic with its axis lying just north of Andrew. The associated steering flow over the tropical storm became easterly. Andrew turned toward the west, accelerated to near 16 kt, and quickly intensified."

That's amazing. Is there a link to the NHC page?

[Grease Monkey]

They are speechless so far.

[WmE]

Wow, that sounds scary!

[stormtruth]

They are speechless so far.

They are busy answering willjnewton's question. They will show up soon and tell us Chris is dead

[N2FSU]

"That's amazing. Is there a link to the NHC page?"

Yes, here is a link to the full report:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html

You will find my excerpts under Synoptic History

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 032320
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 42 KNHC
2309 2004N 06901W 00307 0022 305 008 236 236 009 00341 0000000000
2309. 2006N 06859W 00307 0021 301 009 236 236 009 00340 0000000000
2310 2007N 06858W 00306 0020 303 008 236 236 009 00338 0000000000
2310. 2009N 06856W 00307 0020 307 009 236 236 010 00339 0000000000
2311 2010N 06855W 00306 0019 304 009 236 236 009 00337 0000000000
2311. 2012N 06853W 00308 0019 300 009 236 236 010 00338 0000000000
2312 2013N 06852W 00306 0018 305 010 236 236 010 00336 0000000000
2312. 2015N 06850W 00307 0018 306 010 236 236 010 00337 0000000000
2313 2016N 06849W 00307 0018 307 010 236 236 010 00336 0000000000
2313. 2018N 06847W 00307 0017 304 009 236 234 010 00336 0000000000
2314 2019N 06845W 00307 0017 301 010 236 236 010 00335 0000000000
2314. 2021N 06844W 00308 0017 301 009 236 236 010 00336 0000000000
2315 2023N 06843W 00298 0015 298 009 236 236 010 00324 0000000000
2315. 2024N 06842W 00307 0013 296 010 234 234 011 00332 0000000000
2316 2026N 06841W 00307 0013 302 009 234 234 010 00331 0000000000
2316. 2027N 06839W 00306 0011 307 008 234 234 008 00329 0000000000
2317 2029N 06838W 00307 0011 301 009 236 236 009 00329 0000000000
2317. 2031N 06837W 00308 0010 294 009 226 226 010 00329 0000000000
2318 2032N 06836W 00305 0008 303 006 238 238 006 00324 0000000000
2318. 2034N 06835W 00308 0007 281 006 238 238 007 00327 0000000000

[JonathanBelles]

looks like the "eyewall" is filling in with a little convection on the IR2

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Going from strong TS to a swirl and re generating doesn't happen often. I may have seen it happen twice over the years. We'll see what happens later tonight.

[StormsAhead]

Recon should be in the center in the next set, likely for the final fix of the flight.

[StormsAhead]

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 032330
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 43 KNHC
2319 2036N 06834W 00306 0005 263 005 236 236 005 00323 0000000000
2319. 2037N 06834W 00311 0004 250 003 232 232 005 00326 0000000000
2320 2039N 06834W 00307 0002 332 001 232 232 003 00321 0000000000
2320. 2041N 06835W 00304 0001 065 006 240 240 006 00317 0000000000
2321 2043N 06835W 00308 0001 078 009 240 240 010 00320 0000000000
2321. 2045N 06835W 00306 0001 081 011 242 242 011 00319 0000000000
2322 2047N 06835W 00307 0001 104 010 240 240 011 00319 0000000000
2322. 2047N 06833W 00314 0002 113 008 240 240 009 00328 0000000000
2323 2045N 06832W 00302 0002 115 005 240 240 006 00316 0000000000
2323. 2044N 06830W 00306 0003 161 005 236 236 005 00321 0000000000
2324 2042N 06829W 00306 0004 198 006 236 236 007 00322 0000000000
2324. 2041N 06827W 00307 0006 211 008 236 236 008 00324 0000000000
2325 2039N 06826W 00306 0007 210 008 236 236 008 00324 0000000000
2325. 2038N 06824W 00307 0007 220 007 236 236 008 00325 0000000000
2326 2036N 06823W 00306 0008 211 009 236 236 009 00326 0000000000
2326. 2035N 06822W 00306 0009 212 012 228 228 014 00327 0000000000
2327 2033N 06820W 00308 0011 212 014 236 236 014 00330 0000000000
2327. 2032N 06819W 00305 0012 209 016 230 230 017 00328 0000000000
2328 2030N 06817W 00307 0013 209 015 234 234 016 00331 0000000000
2328. 2029N 06816W 00305 0015 207 015 238 238 016 00331 0000000000
;

[cycloneye]

Will they keep it as a storm in the 8 PM advisory?