Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#381 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 13, 2006 1:31 pm

What are you talking about the maj of models on that shows it bombing to 130 knots.
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#382 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat May 13, 2006 1:34 pm

I'm talking about after they strengthen Chanchu they weaken it in 3 days. In 3 days Chanchu won't be making landfall so why do they weaken it?
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#383 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 13, 2006 1:36 pm

Dry air and cooler sst's off china. Kind of like the northern Gulf.
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#384 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat May 13, 2006 1:36 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:A majority of models kill Chanchu off in 3 days wonder why.


He is talking about the CHIPS models.
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#385 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 13, 2006 1:56 pm

http://news.inq7.net/nation/index.php?i ... y_id=75687

35 dead in Caloy’s wake
Storm also hits Metro Manila hard


First posted 01:19am (Mla time) May 14, 2006
By PDI Southern Luzon Bureau
Inquirer



Editor's Note: Published on page A1 of the May 14, 2006 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer


AT least 35 people were killed as storm “Caloy” (international code name: “Chanchu”) ripped through the Philippines yesterday, battering boats at sea, stranding thousands of travellers, knocking out power lines and leaving behind a string of darkened cities and towns.

By nightfall, the third and biggest storm to enter the Philippine area this year had moved out to the South China Sea but its winds continued to hammer parts of the country.

About 28,000 people were affected in the Calabarzon, Bicol and Visayas regions.

Metro Manila was among the areas which suffered as “Caloy” hammered the metropolis with high winds and downed 77 power circuits of the Manila Electric Co.

Dr. Herman Nohayon, head of forecasting of the weather bureau Pagasa, told the Inquirer that while “Caloy” had moved in over the South China Sea, its northwestward movement would cause its winds to still affect parts of Luzon.

“The eye of the storm actually passed through Mindoro island. The
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reason Metro Manila seemed to have been hard hit was because the storm winds went over the metropolis,” Nohayon said.

In the single biggest disaster, 25 people drowned while three others were missing when the motorized outrigger M/B Mae Ann 5 sank less than a mile from the Masbate port at 2:30 a.m. last Friday.

Eighteen people survived the incident.

The Mae Ann was seeking cover from the storm when it collided with a motorized banca and was engulfed by big waves, Coast Guard station commander Lt. Edgar Boado said.

Ten other people were killed in other parts of the country. They either drowned, were crushed by falling trees or walls, or were electrocuted.
More than a dozen persons were missing.

In a 3 p.m. bulletin yesterday, the Manila International Airport Authority said 67 domestic flights were cancelled during the day, either because of bad weather or the late arrival of turnaround aircraft.

More than a dozen people were still missing in sea mishaps, according to the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC).

Power outages

Many parts of Bicol as well as the Samar provinces remained without power for a second day. Emergency crews struggled to clear major roads blocked by landslides.

Residents in low-lying areas fled before raging floodwaters swept away their homes, the NDCC said.

Several other boats capsized.

Masbate provincial director Supt. Eugenio Alcovindas said that of the 25 bodies recovered in the sinking of the Mae Ann, 18 had been identified.

Only nine names of those killed could be obtained by the Inquirer. They were Dodong Alburo, Chaway Alburo, Selsa Fajardo, Angeline Tagayom, Jenny Tagayom, Jenelyn Tagayom, Elpidio Quilong-quilong and Divine Quilong-quilong. The eighth was identified as a bus inspector of Lobrigo Bus Line.

The Mae Ann was owned and operated by Lobrigo Shipping Lines.

Alcovindas identified the lone missing passenger of the boat as Geopet Alburo.

Two women were killed in Batangas—a 36-year-old woman hit by a falling tree in Nasugbu, and an 84-year-old woman pinned by a wall in Lobo—while a man gathering coconuts died after being struck by a tree in Tiaong, Quezon.

A young boy died in Nagcarlan, Laguna, when a coconut tree knocked down by strong winds fell on him, the NDCC said.

A fisherman drowned after his fishing boat capsized off Negros Occidental, the NDCC said.

A falling tree also killed an unidentified man in Mogpog town, Marinduque.

A man and his wife were electrocuted by a fallen power line in Negros Occidental.

In Legazpi City, the Office of Civil Defense recorded one dead, a 14-year-old girl struck by a falling tree in Nazareno, Masbate.

Lone fatality in Metro Manila

One person died in Metro Manila.

A 61-year-old woman, Teresita Zarcal Gruazo, was killed while four other persons, including a 2-year-old girl, were seriously injured when a concrete wall behind a dilapidated building caved in and crushed them amid heavy rains and strong winds in Caloocan City, officials said.

A neighbor who ran out to help the victims was also hurt.

“It was raining hard and the wind was strong when the incident happened at around 10:30 in the morning,” Caloocan public safety chief Al Santamaria said.

In Tingloy, Batangas, five fishermen were reported missing. There was no electricity yet in the whole of Laguna, Batangas and Quezon, except for Lucena City.

Four other fishermen were reported missing in Calabarzon.

Three others were missing after their boat capsized in the waters off Barangay Kinamaligan, Masbate.

Another unidentified person was reported missing in Laoang, Northern Samar.

Floods, landslides

Landslides and flashfloods destroyed at least 145 homes and damaged 1,124 others, mostly in Legazpi City and in San Antonio, Northern Samar, said the NDCC.

In Catarman, Northern Samar, residents were able to flee to higher ground before floodwaters swept away 21 houses.

Some 17,000 people were affected by the storm in Northern Samar. The worst hit town was Mapanas, where about 15,000 were affected.

As of yesterday afternoon, Camarines Norte, parts of Catanduanes, Camarines Sur (except Naga City), Albay, Sorsogon and Masbate (except Burias Island) remained without power.

Power also had not been restored to Oriental Mindoro.

Power interruptions persisted in Eastern Samar and Northern Samar; in Dulag, Leyte, and in Sogod and other parts of Southern Leyte.

10,000 stranded

Some municipalities in northern Cebu province also experienced power interruptions most of the morning yesterday.

The Coast Guard reported thousands of passengers stranded in major ports in Southern Tagalog as ships delayed their departure while others already at sea took shelter in coves and harbors.

Despite power outages that struck some of its stations, the Coast Guard was busy all day tracking passenger ships plying the seas around Romblon, Mindoro, Marinduque and the Calamian Islands.

Spokesperson Lt. Cmdr. Joseph Coyme said more than 2,100 passengers were stranded in the ports of Batangas City, Lucena, Capalan, Romblon, San Jose and Puerto Real.

Taking into account all ships that delayed their arrivals and departures in different parts of the country, Coyme estimated the total affected passengers at about 10,000.

Ships given clearance

In Manila’s North Harbor, several ships were given clearance to leave as of 5 p.m. while others from areas where the typhoon signals had been lowered began arriving.

The Coast Guard barred all ships with gross tonnage of 2,000 tons from going to sea in areas under storm Signal No. 2 . Boats with gross tonnage of 1,000 tons and below were prohibited from sailing in areas under Signal No. 1

Several ships that were allowed to sail but were later caught in the storm took shelter in natural and man-made harbors along the way.

One such ship, the Sulpicio Lines’ M/V Filipinas Princess with about 1,000 passengers, ran aground as it took shelter in Carmen Bay in Romblon’s Tablas Island.

While on its way to the bay, the ship rescued three fishermen whose boat had capsized.

A 20-man Coast Guard team has been dispatched to Tabaco in Albay to retrieve the sunken M/V Northern Samar, owned by the Sta. Clara Shipping Co.

The vessel sank due to strong winds and water currents on Friday.

No electricity

Commander Nelson Torre, head of PCG Bicol Station, said his men were studying how the ship could be retrieved so that it would not be cannibalized.

In other incidents in Southern Luzon, three schools in Padre Garcia and San Juan, Batangas, and a public market in Padre Garcia were destroyed.

Some 2,000 passengers have been stranded in the Batangas and Lucena ports since Friday.

In Oriental Mindoro, Gov. Arnan C. Panaligan said the storm damaged electric power and communication lines in the province and felled trees along major roads.

There has been no electricity in the whole province of Oriental Mindoro since 9 p.m. Friday. Reports from Norman Bordadora, Dona Pazzibugan, Jerome Aning, Gil C. Cabacungan Jr., Nancy Carvajal and Volt Contreras; Delfin Mallari Jr., Marlon Ramos, Romulo Ponte, Job B. Belen, Gerald Querubin, Madonna Virola, Marlon Ramos, Ephraim Aguilar and Bobby Labalan, PDI Southern Luzon Bureau; Nestor P. Burgos Jr. and Joey A. Gabieta, PDI Visayas Bureau
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#386 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat May 13, 2006 1:58 pm

You typed all of that! :eek:
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#387 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 13, 2006 2:00 pm

No read the source on the top. 35 dead already. Yes I could type that much.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#388 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 13, 2006 2:05 pm

410
WTPQ20 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 13.8N 118.3E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM WEST 280NM EAST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 14.4N 115.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
48HF 151800UTC 16.4N 114.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 161800UTC 19.1N 114.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT =
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CHRISTY

#389 Postby CHRISTY » Sat May 13, 2006 2:10 pm

I have been saying all along this typhoon was gonna affect (HongKong )now it looks a real possibility..This is the windfield out to 72hrs.....

Image

This is the current windfield....

Image

Hurricane alley now has it at 135 KNOTS at Landfall.

Image
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#390 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 13, 2006 2:12 pm

To piggy-back off of Matt's post...

JMA has officially upgraded this to a typhoon. Winds are around 74KT (1-min) according to them.

PAGASA is keeping it at around 68KT (1-min)

Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "CALOY" {CHANCHU}
Issued at 10:45 p.m., Saturday, 13 May 2006 Tropical Storm "CALOY" has slowed down and continues to move in a west northwest direction.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 240 kms west southwest of Metro Manila or
190 kms south southwest of Iba, Zambales
Coordinates: 14.1N, 118.8°E
Strength: maximum sustained winds of 110 kph near the center and
gustiness of up to 140 kph
Movement: west northwest at 11 kph
Forecast Positions / Outlook: Sunday evening:
310 kms west of Iba, Zambales
Monday evening:
520 kms west southwest of Laoag City
Tuesday evening:
630 kms west northwest of Laoag City
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#391 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat May 13, 2006 2:15 pm

This could be a major blow to hong kong. We will have to monitor this situation closely.
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#392 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat May 13, 2006 2:45 pm

A Cat-4 into Hong Kong would cause over 10 billion dollars in damage.
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#393 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat May 13, 2006 3:08 pm

Most models favor intensification on this cyclone.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/com ... 12/M9.html
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#394 Postby whereverwx » Sat May 13, 2006 3:09 pm

It's looking very good. It will be interesting to see what happens with this system.

Image
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#395 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat May 13, 2006 3:12 pm

Calamity wrote:It's looking very good. It will be interesting to see what happens with this system.

Image


Can you get an animation of the above image?
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#396 Postby whereverwx » Sat May 13, 2006 3:15 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
Calamity wrote:It's looking very good. It will be interesting to see what happens with this system.

Image

Can you get an animation of the above image?


Yes, but it's not a very good one.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... ava11.html
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#397 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat May 13, 2006 3:15 pm

only 10 billion in damage IF this hits as a cat 4?

Not sure about the building codes, but that would be very little damage for a major city like Hong Kong. Remember, Sfla, with a similar population as Hong Kong, had about 17 from a cat 1/2
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#398 Postby whereverwx » Sat May 13, 2006 3:25 pm

Here's the latest loop. Not much change, but it looks impressive on the visible.

Image

Also... I think it's going though an ERC?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_06.html
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#399 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat May 13, 2006 3:36 pm

How? Chanchu doesn't have an eye so it can't go through an ERC.
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#400 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 13, 2006 3:48 pm

It has an eye, although it isn't something I'd raise my freak flag about.

Here is the latest image showing this feature from the DMSP satellite

As for an ERC... no. The current eye is so disorganized that it couldn't possible undergo an ERC. Furthermore, ERC usually only occur in major typhoons/hurricanes.
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