Tropical Storm Alberto

#381 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:07 pm

I've been at the beach part of the day and we are now seeing SE winds at 15-20 mph along the SE coast of Florida.

Looking at the motion here.hmmmmmm

certainly looks like it doesn't want to go NW - sure looks like west coast of Florida and south florida event - that is where all the energy seems like it wants to go

#382 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:08 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

I'm kinda suprised this thing is poorly organized. Barely any shear over the system right now, and if I'm correct that high shear that is above the system should help enchance organiztaion like it did to Wilma, am I right?

Better look again, pretty strong WSW shear across it. Don't rely on shear maps, look at a long water vapor loop.

#383 Postby **Windtalker1** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:09 pm

boca_chris wrote:I've been at the beach part of the day and we are now seeing SE winds at 15-20 mph along the SE coast of Florida.

Looking at the motion here.hmmmmmm

certainly looks like it doesn't want to go NW - sure looks like west coast of Florida and south florida event - that is where all the energy seems like it wants to go

I thought you said earlier today that this was not going to be a south Florida event?

jrod · #384 Postby **jrod** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:10 pm

The dry air in the gulf is the big inhibitor in this storm IMO. Yesterday Ortt said the dry air will inhibit the storm. It really looks bad right now. Key West is getting gusts over 30mph and stronger should be expected as the bulk of the depression gets closer, again just my opinion.

#385 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:12 pm

Windtalker1 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:I've been at the beach part of the day and we are now seeing SE winds at 15-20 mph along the SE coast of Florida.

Looking at the motion here.hmmmmmm

certainly looks like it doesn't want to go NW - sure looks like west coast of Florida and south florida event - that is where all the energy seems like it wants to go
I thought you said earlier today that this was not going to be a south Florida event?

Nope, at least I don't think so. Landfall appears to be on the west coast of Florida but the energy will be on the east side so South Florida will feel it also. In fact the entire peninsula should start seeing some tornado watches being issued sometime Sun night and into Mon. due to all of the energy on the east side (we typically see this with tropical storms)

#386 Postby **sponger** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:14 pm

What ever forms, I should be in good shape. The center of the cone 3-4 days out is usually the safest place. (Except for Katrina)

CHRISTY · #387 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:18 pm

forcast wind swath...21z

Extremeweatherguy · #388 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:20 pm

CHRISTY wrote:FORCAST WIND SWATH...21z

with weak tropical systems the winds will not be able to hold their intensity as well over land. If you are more than 15 miles inland, I would not expect to see any tropical storm force winds from this one. Also, if you are not within 50-100 miles of the center, I would not expect to see any inland TS force gusts.

vaffie · #389 Postby **vaffie** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:29 pm

A reason why TX/LA should not feel out of the woods yet.

CHRISTY · #390 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:32 pm

animated GIF of TD1...
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/sat.irE1_an.gif

DESTRUCTION5 · #391 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:33 pm

vaffie wrote:

A reason why TX/LA should not feel out of the woods yet.

If I were a betting man...Id say the FL track(NHC) is sitting a 1-5 to verify..

floridahurricaneguy · #392 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:45 pm

here is what i think

http://img113.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... r111fd.jpg

#393 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:48 pm

well, im here in NY worring about my family and my house in st. pete, so what should st. pete expect?

cheezyWXguy · #394 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:48 pm

i have to say, it really looks like the center is reforming right under the deepest convection, right on the west side of cuba

#395 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:49 pm

cheezywxman wrote:i have to say, it really looks like the center is reforming right under the deepest convection, right on the west side of cuba

...and it's not moving northeast or north.

#396 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:49 pm

fact789 wrote:well, im here in NY worring about my family and my house in st. pete, so what should st. pete expect?

check out my thread about what I expect for the Tampa Bay area

WindRunner · #397 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:49 pm

Recon just reported 38kt FL winds = 34.2kt surface winds = Tropical Storm strength!

#398 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:51 pm

skysummit wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:i have to say, it really looks like the center is reforming right under the deepest convection, right on the west side of cuba

...and it's not moving northeast or north.

Well you can say that but look at the big picture of where it was 2-3 days ago and where it is now. The whole mess is NE of the position 2-3 days ago by a few hundred miles. Seems like the whole thing is sliding NE to me....I haven't seen it go any more west than 2-3 days ago....of course alot of the convection is being sheared to the ENE...

I think the Westerlies and (future) trough have this thing firmly under its grasp now so it is as far west as you are going to see this thing...IMHO

#399 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:54 pm

boca_chris wrote:
skysummit wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:i have to say, it really looks like the center is reforming right under the deepest convection, right on the west side of cuba

...and it's not moving northeast or north.

Well you can say that but look at the big picture of where it was 2-3 days ago and where it is now. The whole mess is NE of the position 2-3 days ago by a few hundred miles. Seems like the whole thing is sliding NE to me....I haven't seen it go any more west than 2-3 days ago....of course alot of the convection is being sheared to the ENE...

I think the Westerlies and (future) trough have this thing firmly under its grasp now so it is as far west as you are going to see this thing...IMHO

I'm not talking about the whole mess...I'm talking about the lower level features. Yea, most of the moisture is getting sheared to the northeast.

Plus right now it's almost impossible to go northeast.

#400 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:00 pm

skysummit wrote:
boca_chris wrote:
skysummit wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:i have to say, it really looks like the center is reforming right under the deepest convection, right on the west side of cuba

...and it's not moving northeast or north.

Well you can say that but look at the big picture of where it was 2-3 days ago and where it is now. The whole mess is NE of the position 2-3 days ago by a few hundred miles. Seems like the whole thing is sliding NE to me....I haven't seen it go any more west than 2-3 days ago....of course alot of the convection is being sheared to the ENE...

I think the Westerlies and (future) trough have this thing firmly under its grasp now so it is as far west as you are going to see this thing...IMHO

I'm not talking about the whole mess...I'm talking about the lower level features. Yea, most of the moisture is getting sheared to the northeast.

Plus right now it's almost impossible to go northeast.

interesting, well lets see if that is the reason why it is moving NNW at 6mph as of the last advisory, down 3mph.....maybe it is feeling the blockage to the NE now.

Tropical Storm Alberto

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