Tropical Storm Chris

[Recurve]

It's still clearly there. The expanding convection gives an appearance of bumping the LLC to the NW.

Only problem is there is still no convection wrapping around the LLC.

Still too much NE shear, it would seem, plus lack of good inflow from the south (?). Is the forward speed of the low inhibiting it too?

[jhamps10]

yeah, he's back,kinda gave us a scare here for a minute now didn't he.

[mobilebay]

887
SXXX50 KNHC 040433
AF307 0703A CHRIS HDOB 04 KNHC
0421. 1822N 06516W 06090 0356 065 016 101 115 016 06530 0000000000
0422 1824N 06518W 06215 0357 066 015 105 129 015 06657 0000000000
0422. 1825N 06519W 06331 0365 064 015 113 141 016 06783 0000000000
0423 1827N 06520W 06454 0373 053 017 121 143 017 06915 0000000000
0423. 1828N 06522W 06562 0381 057 017 131 135 018 07032 0000000000
0424 1830N 06523W 06652 0387 058 016 137 137 017 07129 0000000000
0424. 1831N 06524W 06704 0390 055 017 139 143 018 07184 0000000000
0425 1833N 06526W 06713 0390 054 018 141 153 018 07193 0000000000
0425. 1834N 06527W 06710 0393 051 017 143 159 018 07193 0000000000
0426 1836N 06529W 06706 0394 057 016 141 161 016 07189 0000000000
0426. 1838N 06531W 06707 0394 056 016 141 165 018 07191 0000000000
0427 1840N 06532W 06707 0396 053 020 135 179 022 07193 0000000000
0427. 1842N 06534W 06706 0396 056 022 135 175 022 07192 0000000000
0428 1843N 06536W 06705 0397 056 022 137 173 022 07192 0000000000
0428. 1845N 06538W 06704 0398 060 021 135 171 022 07192 0000000000
0429 1847N 06540W 06705 0399 057 023 137 163 024 07193 0000000000
0429. 1849N 06542W 06706 0400 060 021 139 161 023 07195 0000000000
0430 1851N 06544W 06705 0402 058 018 135 163 019 07196 0000000000
0430. 1854N 06545W 06703 0402 062 018 135 163 018 07195 0000000000
0431 1856N 06547W 06753 0404 067 017 137 171 018 07246 0000000000
;

[jhamps10]

bump for start of the overnight mission.

[mike815]

yea he did it is really amazing im pretty supprised it has come back a little

[HouTXmetro]

Shortwave IR clearly showed the LLC moving NW for moment.

[jhamps10]

yeah I agree on the NW movement for a little bit.

[mobilebay]

bump for start of the overnight mission.

Thanks. 24 knots so far but they are wellSE of the center.

[Grease Monkey]

They take off. This song starts playing:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/music/clipserv ... 33-8047826

[Extremeweatherguy]

the sat/IR shots show that shear is erroding the eastern inflow of Chris (watch how the clouds on that side instantly disappear).

[mike815]

i really not buying that motion though more wnw yes then west i think this is very much short term

[jhamps10]

bump for start of the overnight mission.

Thanks. 24 knots so far but they are wellSE of the center.

No problem.

[bayoubebe]

Well, this is weird.

Some of you are saying that Chris has died, or just about died, and then another handful of you are saying he's still alive and is looking better???

What is even funnier is that at the exact same time on 2 different threads, separate posters were posting these opposite reports.

Come on you people! Can't you all please say the same thing for folks like me who don't have a clue about all the technicalities and just want a summary from the experts here?

Y'all confuse me so.

Remember, some of us are simpletons when it comes to the weather and rely on your expertise.

[mobilebay]

yeah I agree on the NW movement for a little bit.

It's not NW movement. It's TS's building in that direction. Just like last night when the system appeared to be moving SW when it was not.

[Bailey1777]

It looks to me like the convection expanded over the LLC and made it look like it came open. Any pros have a comment.

[tgenius]

i really not buying that motion though more wnw yes then west i think this is very much short term

I hope so, a more consistent shift wnw or nw for a bit moves it closer to South FL. The storm has been tracking north of the forecast points basically all day today also.

[The_OD_42]

Well, this is weird.

Some of you are saying that Chris has died, or just about died, and then another handful of you are saying he's still alive and is looking better???

What is even funnier is that at the exact same time on 2 different threads, separate posters were posting these opposite reports.

Come on you people! Can't you all please say the same thing for folks like me who don't have a clue about all the technicalities and just want a summary from the experts here?

Y'all confuse me so.

Remember, some of us are simpletons when it comes to the weather and rely on your expertise.

I guess its just everyone thinking out loud to one another, getting different opinions. Sorry for the confusion

[Grease Monkey]

Confusion and chaos is what weather is all about. We're just trying to continue the tradition.

[Beam]

Well, this is weird.

Some of you are saying that Chris has died, or just about died, and then another handful of you are saying he's still alive and is looking better???

What is even funnier is that at the exact same time on 2 different threads, separate posters were posting these opposite reports.

Come on you people! Can't you all please say the same thing for folks like me who don't have a clue about all the technicalities and just want a summary from the experts here?

Y'all confuse me so.

Remember, some of us are simpletons when it comes to the weather and rely on your expertise.

There's really no "expertise" that's gonna work on this thing. None of the storms last year, save Epsilon perhaps, are as utterly defiant of every bloody forecast issued for it as our friend Christopher. It's just a matter of waiting.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

It looks to me like the convection expanded over the LLC and made it look like it came open. Any pros have a comment.

Yes Thunderstorms did expand over the Low Level Circulation.