Tropical Storm Chris

[Furious George]

As a reminder, there is some really good analysis in the TA forum. Bottom line I got out of it is that this system may just 'hold on' for a few days, but once this system enters the more favorable conditions near the GOM, who knows what could happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 40 mph system for a while followed by decent intensification down the road.

[drezee]

118
URNT11 KNHC 011825
97779 18194 30176 60600 03000 18043 23238 /0009
41645

45kts

[Scorpion]

Is recon even in the strongest convection?

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 011830
97779 18244 30178 60500 03000 15027 23238 /0012
41425
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 06

25 kts

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!

[WindRunner]

Well I'll be . . . so it is!

drezee, can you pull the coords out of that so I can plot it? Thanks . . .

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 011830
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 11 KNHC
1817. 1737N 06045W 00299 5031 156 007 248 246 008 00279 0000000000
1818 1737N 06044W 00301 5033 159 010 254 242 012 00278 0000000000
1818. 1737N 06042W 00300 5032 169 019 246 246 024 00278 0000000000
1819 1737N 06040W 00302 5031 170 027 242 242 029 00282 0000000000
1819. 1737N 06039W 00299 5029 171 040 232 232 042 00281 0000000000
1820 1737N 06037W 00302 5026 174 043 236 236 043 00286 0000000000
1820. 1738N 06036W 00301 5019 172 041 230 230 041 00292 0000000000
1821 1738N 06034W 00300 5014 169 039 226 226 040 00296 0000000000
1821. 1738N 06032W 00301 5010 170 037 224 224 039 00302 0000000000
1822 1739N 06031W 00299 5009 175 038 226 226 039 00301 0000000000
1822. 1739N 06029W 00304 5006 174 036 230 224 037 00309 0000000000
1823 1741N 06029W 00299 5004 169 035 230 230 036 00306 0000000000
1823. 1743N 06029W 00300 5003 165 032 232 226 032 00307 0000000000
1824 1745N 06029W 00301 5001 165 032 230 226 033 00311 0000000000
1824. 1746N 06029W 00301 0002 158 027 226 226 029 00314 0000000000
1825 1748N 06029W 00300 0004 153 027 230 226 028 00314 0000000000
1825. 1750N 06029W 00302 0003 148 030 226 226 032 00316 0000000000
1826 1752N 06029W 00301 0002 145 031 226 226 032 00313 0000000000
1826. 1754N 06030W 00299 0001 143 032 226 226 033 00310 0000000000
1827 1755N 06030W 00302 0002 139 032 228 222 032 00315 0000000000

Very small area of TS winds

[Lowpressure]

Interesting to have 45kts at 1009. The question will be as the season goes on- what is the threshold mb for Hurricane Status. 984-989?

[brunota2003]

I think we will see an upgrade to roughly 50 MPH...maybe a tad higher...

[JonathanBelles]

drezee wrote:
1008mb

300
URNT11 KNHC 011821
97779 18174 30176 60800 03000 99005 25258 /0008
41210
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 04

how do you know its 1008mb?

118
URNT11 KNHC 011825
97779 18194 30176 60600 03000 18043 23238 /0009
41645

45kts
how do you know its 45kts?

sorry i dont know how to read these

[JPmia]

Something tells me that if this things stays north of the major island chain it will not maintain as a TS. I can't count how many times foreasts called for maintained intensity and then a rapid intensification occurs and blows away all forecasts. Thus is the nature of intensity forecasting...can't be done well at the moment.

[Roxy]

drezee wrote:
1008mb

300
URNT11 KNHC 011821
97779 18174 30176 60800 03000 99005 25258 /0008
41210
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 04

how do you know its 1008mb?

118
URNT11 KNHC 011825
97779 18194 30176 60600 03000 18043 23238 /0009
41645

45kts
how do you know its 45kts?

sorry i dont know how to read these

search for the thread about the excel recon decoder, it should help.

[skysummit]

There it is!!!! We're in the Holy Crap alert mode now!

[AJC3]

Too soon to say what the shear will be.

I do not know how strong this will be when it nears South Florida (assuming it doesn't pull a Debby and bury itself over Hispaniola)

Based on radar and satellite trends, I think that option is becoming increasingly unlikely. At worst, southerly inflow may be impeded to some degree, however disruption of the circulation seems unlikely unless a westward bend begins tonight or early WED.

As an aside...from a shear perspective, the GFS/UKM tuck Chris in between the retrograding TUTT lows, keeping a distance of about 10-12 degrees in LON.

On the other hand, the 00Z ECM munches Chris pretty badly from the back side by retrograding the trailing TUTT low right on top of it. This looks very unlikely to me as that low would almost immediately need to start moving west, which it is not doing, and will not do until that massive ridge over the ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC spreads farther eastward.

It will be interesting to see if there is significant enhancement of the outflow developing my WED night/THU.

[LAwxrgal]

There it is!!!! We're in the Holy Crap alert mode now!

It's that time of the year.

[gatorcane]

Something tells me that if this things stays north of the major island chain it will not maintain as a TS. I can't count how many times foreasts called for maintained intensity and then a rapid intensification occurs and blows away all forecasts. Thus is the nature of intensity forecasting...can't be done well at the moment.

Yes that is my point. I agree 100% - intensity is too hard to predict. I can see it becoming a major hurricane before reaching South Florida/straits.

[Evil Jeremy]

whay are the models shifting south west?????

[brunota2003]

drezee wrote:
1008mb

300
URNT11 KNHC 011821
97779 18174 30176 60800 03000 99005 25258 /0008
41210
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 04

how do you know its 1008mb?

118
URNT11 KNHC 011825
97779 18194 30176 60600 03000 18043 23238 /0009
41645

45kts
how do you know its 45kts?

sorry i dont know how to read these

ok...I bolded the areas for pressure and wind respectfully...the pressure is in sea level, but I don't know about the winds? I cant remember if its surface or flight level...
EDIT: or if you really want to know...go here: http://www.hurricanehunters.com/recco.htm

[cycloneye]

01/1745 UTC 17.5N 60.8W T2.5/2.5 CHRIS -- Atlantic Ocean

[Evil Jeremy]

2.5?????