Tropical Storm Chris

[clfenwi]

I concur...comparing the observations to the ones from the previous flight, it seems that the observations overall are significantly lower than before. Looks like they are going to make another pass of the northeast quadrant (or maybe not, as they've been flying a pecuiliar pattern), before advisory time.

[mobilebay]

.2 of a knot?

[mobilebay]

926
SXXX50 KNHC 040803
AF307 0703A CHRIS HDOB 25 KNHC
0751. 2046N 07050W 01525 0074 330 004 186 160 004 01635 0000000000
0752 2048N 07049W 01523 0075 341 003 188 154 004 01634 0000000000
0752. 2049N 07048W 01525 0075 013 004 192 156 005 01635 0000000000
0753 2050N 07046W 01524 0074 053 005 192 158 006 01634 0000000000
0753. 2051N 07045W 01525 0075 062 009 198 150 009 01635 0000000000
0754 2052N 07044W 01526 0075 064 010 200 150 010 01637 0000000000
0754. 2053N 07043W 01522 0075 066 010 198 148 011 01633 0000000000
0755 2055N 07042W 01525 0075 078 010 196 140 010 01636 0000000000
0755. 2056N 07040W 01526 0075 084 011 194 136 012 01636 0000000000
0756 2057N 07039W 01524 0076 100 015 198 124 017 01635 0000000000
0756. 2058N 07038W 01525 0076 108 017 196 118 018 01636 0000000000
0757 2059N 07037W 01524 0076 106 019 186 124 019 01636 0000000000
0757. 2100N 07036W 01524 0076 108 018 186 116 018 01635 0000000000
0758 2101N 07034W 01525 0076 108 016 182 122 017 01636 0000000000
0758. 2102N 07033W 01525 0076 113 015 180 124 016 01637 0000000000
0759 2104N 07032W 01522 0075 113 014 180 122 015 01632 0000000000
0759. 2105N 07031W 01527 0075 123 012 176 136 012 01638 0000000000
0800 2106N 07029W 01523 0076 127 009 186 120 009 01635 0000000000
0800. 2107N 07028W 01525 0076 142 009 180 132 009 01636 0000000000
0801 2108N 07027W 01524 0076 164 008 178 142 009 01635 0000000000
;
NE quad. I guess there thinking, well I don't know what they are thinking.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think they will down grade it I would. That 53 knots was found in a thunderstorm which is likely being blow to heck right now. But lets get some data out of that east and southeast quad first. So we can make sure.

If it gets any weaker over the west and northwest quads. This thing is going to open up...Not even enough winds to spin the thing any longer.

[mobilebay]

562
URNT12 KNHC 040804
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 04/07:52:20Z
B. 20 deg 49 min N
070 deg 47 min W
C. 850 mb 1528 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 104 deg 008 kt
G. 226 deg 039 nm
H. 1012 mb
I. 16 C/ 1526 m
J. 19 C/ 1525 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 135 / 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF307 0703A CHRIS OB 12
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 05:45:40 Z
;

[clfenwi]

(I would have deleted this post, but someone with hair trigger timing is replying to it...)

Boy have the howl at the moon hours been unkind to Chris.

[mobilebay]

973
UZNT13 KNHC 040803
XXAA 54088 99208 70708 08000 99012 27041 ///// 00106 26236 31015
92791 22449 27007 85526 19634 04504 88999 77999
31313 09608 80752
61616 AF307 0703A CHRIS OB 13
62626 EYE SPL 2083N07076W 0754 LST WND 012 MBL WND 31014 AEV 2060
4 DLM WND 29509 011868 WL150 31015 084 =
XXBB 54088 99208 70708 08000 00012 27041 11984 25026 22920 22256
33850 19634 44843 19033
21212 00012 ///// 11011 31015 22979 31012 33966 31015 44886 25001
55868 32004 66843 06005
31313 09608 80752
61616 AF307 0703A CHRIS OB 13
62626 EYE SPL 2083N07076W 0754 LST WND 012 MBL WND 31014 AEV 2060
4 DLM WND 29509 011868 WL150 31015 084 =
;

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now that is very weird the heights are higher in the center then the outside. Also those winds on the southwest and west/northwest sides are so weak. You would think that it would no longer be able to have much of a wind field=move the clouds. Which means this will likely open up in the next 6 hours if something doe's not change.

[mobilebay]

(I would have deleted this post, but someone with hair trigger timing is replying to it...)

Boy have the howl at the moon hours been unkind to Chris.

[Bailey1777]

Almost a goner or just another Chris phase?

[MississippiHurricane]

I never thought about that it has to have a pretty good wind field around it like that. Thanks for that knowledge Matt-hurricanewatcher!

[mobilebay]

Almost a goner or just another Chris phase?

Hard to say. It has a strong surface circulation there is no doubt about that. Recon is not having any trouble closing off a center. However, it will probably be a TD on the 5AM Package unless they find something quick.

[mobilebay]

For some reason they are not transmitting minute OBS. They have not for the last two sets.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe they got bored in are doing something else?

[mobilebay]

I hope everything is OK!

[mobilebay]

520
WTNT23 KNHC 040834
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
0900 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 70.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 70.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 70.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.2N 72.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 75.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.6N 80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.5N 91.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 25.0N 96.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 70.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA

[mobilebay]

Well it's still a TS i just posted the advisory.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes...Also there is no pressure grad with this system what so ever. Its one height lower outside the storm then inside. Which is not what you went to see. It means that the system is doing opposite of what you went to see. Which means the air is sinking where you went it to rise. Also there is no wind grad which means the winds are becoming lighter/weaker. It all plays a part in the cyclones development.

See everything is innerlocked.
Convection=Latent heat=pressure/warm core height=winds which make the clouds spin around the core of the tropical cyclone. In this chain is not working right now very good.

In do not expect the shear to decrease the tutt looks to be fellowing the system...But maybe slightly as it gets pass 70 west. But if things don't change this thing will likely open up. We will see this was only on vortex...Next one could show that Chris could be doing the opposite.

[mobilebay]

519
WTNT43 KNHC 040834
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006

CHRIS HAS MANAGED TO REMAIN AS A TROPICAL STORM ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY
WEAKENING. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING THE
CYCLONE AND FOUND A 53 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND. HOWEVER...THE WIND
WAS MEASURED IN A THUNDERSTORM WHICH IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
ACTUAL INTENSITY. OVERALL THE AIRCRAFT HAS ONLY MEASURED 30 TO 35
KT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. EVEN THOUGH THESE WINDS DO NOT CURRENTLY
SUPPORT A TROPICAL STORM...CONVECTION IS STILL PRESENT AND CLOSE TO
THE CENTER...SO THE PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO MAINTAIN AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. HOWEVER...CHRIS COULD EASILY BE
DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.

THE CYCLONE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...AND
IS STILL BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE SHEAR. A POSSIBILITY EXISTS
THAT THE SHEAR COULD RELAX IN THE NEAR TERM WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN
CHRIS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST...AND THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE SHIPS MODEL.
MOST OF THE OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISSIPATION.

THE 6-HOURLY AVERAGED MOTION IS 275/13...WHICH IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER
MOTION THAN EARLIER. THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED AND
CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...IF IT LASTS THAT LONG.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 20.9N 70.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 21.2N 72.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 21.5N 75.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 22.0N 78.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 80.6W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/0600Z 24.0N 85.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 24.5N 91.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 96.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA

[mobilebay]

Its still a tropical storm. Stayin alive, stayin alive, stayin alive, woooooooohooooo stayin aliiiiiiiive!