Tropical Storm Chris

[jhamps10]

I was just getting happy there was no LLC despite convection continuing to fire even to the west. DIE

Boy maybe we need that poem used in that home improvment epsiode where wilson peforms at the arts festival.

[x-y-no]

Interesting ... there's almost no wind at all under all the convection to the SE ...

[Typhoon]

what reduction percentage do we use for the latest VM?

They're flying at 5,000 feet, so I think it's 80%.

[Jam151]

the southern half looks exposed to me. recon may find something different now. wait and see mode.

[Grease Monkey]

That's because he's just putting the coffin over himself. He doesn't want to die in the nude.

[Starburst]

106
SXXX50 KNHC 041849
AF303 0803A CHRIS HDOB 19 KNHC
1840 2030N 07152W 01523 0076 187 005 188 130 007 01634 0000000000
1840. 2031N 07153W 01524 0074 177 004 190 126 005 01633 0000000000
1841 2032N 07154W 01526 0074 166 005 188 144 006 01635 0000000000
1841. 2033N 07155W 01524 0072 170 006 192 146 007 01631 0000000000
1842 2034N 07157W 01524 0072 182 003 194 144 005 01631 0000000000
1842. 2036N 07158W 01526 0071 178 006 190 136 008 01632 0000000000
1843 2037N 07159W 01524 0071 188 007 190 148 008 01629 0000000000
1843. 2038N 07200W 01526 0071 192 005 190 150 007 01631 0000000000
1844 2039N 07201W 01525 0071 216 003 190 148 003 01631 0000000000
1844. 2040N 07202W 01526 0072 193 002 190 148 003 01632 0000000000
1845 2041N 07204W 01524 0072 191 003 188 154 003 01631 0000000000
1845. 2042N 07205W 01526 0072 195 004 186 158 005 01632 0000000000
1846 2044N 07206W 01524 0072 181 006 184 164 006 01630 0000000000
1846. 2045N 07207W 01527 0072 181 005 180 162 005 01634 0000000000
1847 2046N 07208W 01523 0072 183 004 184 164 005 01629 0000000000
1847. 2047N 07210W 01527 0073 183 005 184 164 005 01635 0000000000
1848 2048N 07211W 01525 0073 176 004 192 160 005 01632 0000000000
1848. 2049N 07212W 01523 0072 167 005 194 158 006 01630 0000000000
1849 2050N 07213W 01527 0073 173 005 188 164 006 01635 0000000000
1849. 2051N 07215W 01525 0074 181 005 184 166 006 01634 0000000000
;

[WindRunner]

Looks like they're going in again real quick for another fix. Should be through the center (if that's where they are going) in the next set.

[JonathanBelles]

is it a closed low?

[DESTRUCTION5]

J.B. Says that this will stay just north of cuba... and he thinks it will become a hurricane in the Gulf and slam into Mexico well south of Brownsville.

He mentioned that there is a time tonight that this could intensify and that SFL needs to watch out...

For whatever its worth... there is his thoughts...

LOL...Ohh My..Love the 2nd 1/2

[KFDM Meteorologist]

J.B. Says that this will stay just north of cuba... and he thinks it will become a hurricane in the Gulf and slam into Mexico well south of Brownsville.

He mentioned that there is a time tonight that this could intensify and that SFL needs to watch out...

For whatever its worth... there is his thoughts...

I agree with him on the south of Texas part with such a large high building into the southern U.S. next week.

[JonathanBelles]

is it closed?

[WindRunner]

is it a closed low?

They don't send out a vortex if there isn't a LLC, so therefore there is a LLC if that's what you're asking.

[rockyman]

banding on NE side and NW side (or outflow boundaries ) are firing up...I can now easily spot the LLC on IR based on the banding features...definitely looking better this PM

[WindRunner]

Supp. vortex:

URNT14 KNHC 041844
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01225 10711 12554 11616 13028
02223 20713 22551 21615 12028
03222 30715 32549 31714 11026
04220 40717 42546 41717 12032
05218 50719 52530 51816 12030
06216 60721 62536 61916 10023
07213 70722 72529 72012 99005
MF220 M0717 MF036
OBS 01 AT 17:35:40Z
OBS 07 AT 18:03:20Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 10020
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01209 10723 12530 11816 99005
02207 20725 22533 21816 99005
MF209 M0723 MF005
OBS 01 AT 18:13:00Z
OBS 02 AT 18:17:30Z
OBS 02 SFC WND 99005
AF303 0803A CHRIS OB 07


Recco:

URNT11 KNHC 041841
97779 18404 60205 71900 15300 99005 19143 /2527
49905
RMK AF303 0803A CHRIS OB 08

SE corner, surface has winds variable at 5kts.

[x-y-no]

J.B. Says that this will stay just north of cuba... and he thinks it will become a hurricane in the Gulf and slam into Mexico well south of Brownsville.

He mentioned that there is a time tonight that this could intensify and that SFL needs to watch out...

For whatever its worth... there is his thoughts...

Well most of that's possible, I suppose, but except for maybe the lower Keys, I don't think SFL has much of anything to worry about.

[Stormavoider]

is it a closed low?

They don't send out a vortex if there isn't a LLC, so therefore there is a LLC if that's what you're asking.

But I thought I saw a big fish come up and eat the LLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[x-y-no]

is it closed?

Yes. Albeit only 5 knots or less of west winds on the south side.

[NONAME]

x-y-no you beat me to it.

[Grease Monkey]

That must mean it's barely hanging on by a thread. One more little slice and the rope breaks.

[Frank2]

I'm glad others (on the locked thread) noticed the possibility that the system is now a wave - thought it was just me...

Frank