Tropical Storm Chris

[marcane_1973]

Chris looks like a stalled out front right now. You can tell on infrared that Chris is a open wave most likley and not even a TD.

[marcane_1973]

This wave off the coast of Africa is starting to look interesting though. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[miamicanes177]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

*edited by staff to make the image a link

*please do not post such large images - it makes everyone have to scroll to read each post

[Frank P]

If Chris comes back from practically being a non entity at the moment it would be one of the greatest comebacks in TC history.... very unlikely I might add as well .... of course Ivan's comeback (or return to the GOM) was quite interesting a couple of years ago... and certainly deserving of the TC comeback's hall of fame... any other TC deserving of this award?

I don't think Chris will be the "comeback Kid of 06"

[miamicanes177]

this is the sat pics and models thread so I thought we were supposed to post the actual pictures in the thread.

[cycloneye]

Will the 11 PM advisory be the last one written for Chris?

[rnbaida]

yes, i am 100% sure.

[Bailey1777]

I would think so unless recon could still pick up a LLC, which I doubt.

[miamicanes177]

they'll wait for recon before making any changes. So this is not the last advisory.

[SouthFloridawx]

they'll wait for recon before making any changes. So this is not the last advisory.

Exactly...

[Brent]

Yeah, I don't expect this to be the final advisory either.

[cycloneye]

We will know as soon forecaster Richard Knabb releases it,always a little late than the other forecasters,attention Brent.

[Brent]

We will know as soon forecaster Richard Knabb releases it,always a little late than the other forecasters,attention Brent.

I'm waiting...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

This thing is HIS TO REE!

[rnbaida]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 04, 2006


...Chris weakens further as it approaches Cuba...
...All watches and warnings discontinued...

at 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...the government of the Bahamas has
discontinued the tropical storm watch for Long Island and the
Exumas in the central Bahamas.

Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress
of Chris.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST...0300z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Chris was located near latitude 21.6 north...longitude
74.0 west or about 135 miles...220 km...south-southeast of Long
Island and about 250 miles...405 km...east of Camaguey Cuba.

The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph...20 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. On this track Chris will be nearing the north coast of Cuba
on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph...45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours. However...Chris could dissipate on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb...29.88 inches.
Chris is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
across Haiti...eastern Cuba and the southeast Bahamas with isolated
totals of up to 4 inches over the higher terrain through Saturday.

Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...21.6 N...74.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1012 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 500 am AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Knabb

[rnbaida]

first to post it.

[rnbaida]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 04, 2006


...Chris weakens further as it approaches Cuba...
...All watches and warnings discontinued...

at 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...the government of the Bahamas has
discontinued the tropical storm watch for Long Island and the
Exumas in the central Bahamas.

Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress
of Chris.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST...0300z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Chris was located near latitude 21.6 north...longitude
74.0 west or about 135 miles...220 km...south-southeast of Long
Island and about 250 miles...405 km...east of Camaguey Cuba.

The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph...20 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. On this track Chris will be nearing the north coast of Cuba
on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph...45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours. However...Chris could dissipate on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb...29.88 inches.
Chris is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
across Haiti...eastern Cuba and the southeast Bahamas with isolated
totals of up to 4 inches over the higher terrain through Saturday.

Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...21.6 N...74.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1012 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 500 am AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Knabb

[Brent]

LOL, I got distracted thinking it'd be a little late.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
0300 UTC SAT AUG 05 2006

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE
EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 74.0W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 74.0W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 73.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.2N 78.3W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.8N 81.0W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 83.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 24.5N 94.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 99.5W...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 74.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[beachbum_al]

Doesn't sound good for Chris, the little system that kept on going despite the odds.

[Brent]

No more intermediate advisories...