Tropical Storm Chris

Website · #4981 Postby **Brent** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:34 pm

1. Down to 30 mph

2. No watches/warnings, so no intermediate advisories.

3. Barely regains TS strength in the Gulf.

Next.

#4982 Postby **Bailey1777** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:35 pm

Recon will probably be the finish to the Chris show.

Website · #4983 Postby **Brent** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:37 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006

PUFFS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN FORMING IN THE
CIRCULATION OF CHRIS TONIGHT. HOWEVER THESE BURSTS HAVE BEEN
SHORT-LIVED AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT THEY ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
A REJUVENATION OF THE SYSTEM. IN FACT THE LATEST SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALMOST GONE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH DECREASING
DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES...A 2312 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS...AND A
RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION OF 24 KT IN A THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF THE
CENTER. EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED... MOST
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE WILL JUST GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN.
ONE FACTOR ON WHY THE MODELS DISSIPATE CHRIS MIGHT BE THE LACK OF
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
CHRIS' CONVECTION. SHIPS ALSO DIAGNOSES UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
A SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR FOR THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF CHRIS.
IN ADDITION...INTERACTION WITH CUBA COULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE
SYSTEM. IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES AND REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO..
IT WOULD BE PASSING OVER WARMER WATER AND EXPERIENCING LIGHT SHEAR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST GENEROUSLY ASSUMES THAT CHRIS WILL HANG ON
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE
WEAKENED STATE OF CHRIS...IT COULD CERTAINLY DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME.

MOST OF THE CIRCULATION OF CHRIS IS OBSCURED WITH A THIN VEIL OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS...MAKING THE CENTER RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND. BEST
ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE
WEST.. 280/11. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...
PROBABLY DUE TO A STRONG LOW TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE THAT IS PROVIDING WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS. A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK IS FORESEEN IN ABOUT 3 DAYS DUE TO A STRONG
MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. A SMALL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST... CLOSEST TO THE BAM SHALLOW MODEL WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE
FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 21.6N 74.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.8W 25 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 22.2N 78.3W 25 KT...NEAR CUBA
36HR VT 06/1200Z 22.8N 81.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 07/0000Z 23.3N 83.8W 25 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 24.0N 89.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 24.5N 94.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 25.0N 99.5W 20 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

#4984 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:38 pm

This is my last post on whatever this is east of Cuba. What a joke.

#4985 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:42 pm

Get the paddles, charge CLEAR!

Website · #4986 Postby **Brent** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:43 pm

Misshurricane wrote:Get the paddles, charge CLEAR!

I'm sorry. It's too late for that.

bamaboy · #4987 Postby **bamaboy** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:44 pm

More like the NHC is using this to train their new forecasters for when(if) the season heats up.

#4988 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:46 pm

No kidding!!

#4989 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:46 pm

"Alive but weak"? He's flatlined! Charge the paddles! CLEAR! ;-)

#4990 Postby **Andrew92** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:46 pm

Can't we just give him the :Door:

finally?!

And to answer everyone's question, yes, I know it's mean. However, tropical storms and hurricanes are mean; therefore, when they dissipate or become extratropical, ALL of them deserve the door. Well, almost all of them. Names that are likely to be retired get this: :Can:

I'm just tired of Chris, and I can't imagine him re-developing, no matter what the models say.

-Andrew92

#4991 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:48 pm

Misshurricane wrote:Get the paddles, charge CLEAR!

Hey, that was my post! ;-)

#4992 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:50 pm

#4993 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:50 pm

LOL What page was it on?

MiamiensisWx · #4994 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:51 pm

Andrew92 wrote:And to answer everyone's question, yes, I know it's mean.

Actually, I don't really find it mean at all. It's neither nice or mean - it just is. Neither description really fits it.

stormtruth · #4995 Postby **stormtruth** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:57 pm

The Book of Chris continues to be written: Alive but weak and pathetic Chris continues to generate small useless puffs of clouds. Recon will determine whether Chris actually even exists or not.

whereverwx · #4996 Postby **whereverwx** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:58 pm

Lets review Christilda's life.

#4997 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:00 pm

August 5 2006
6 Am AST
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE FORMS IN EAST ATLANTIC

I WISH!

#4998 Postby **AnnularCane** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:01 pm

Christilda?

whereverwx · #4999 Postby **whereverwx** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:04 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Christilda?

You got that right.

MiamiensisWx · #5000 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:06 pm

Misshurricane wrote:August 5 2006
6 Am AST
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE FORMS IN EAST ATLANTIC

I WISH!

I would also add this to it...

...NO THREAT TO LAND...

That would make more of an interesting and less interacting tracking and studying experience.

Tropical Storm Chris

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