Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[SouthFloridawx]

Convert knts to mph for me please

Conversion table for
knots to miles per hour
KTS to MPH 5 Knots = 5.8 MPH
10 Knots = 11.5 MPH
15 Knots = 17.3 MPH
20 Knots = 23.0 MPH
25 Knots = 28.8 MPH
30 Knots = 34.6 MPH
35 Knots = 40.3 MPH
40 Knots = 46.1 MPH
45 Knots = 51.8 MPH
50 Knots = 57.6 MPH
55 Knots = 63.4 MPH
60 Knots = 69.1 MPH
65 Knots = 74.9 MPH
70 Knots = 80.6 MPH
75 Knots = 86.4 MPH
80 Knots = 92.2 MPH
85 Knots = 97.9 MPH
90 Knots = 103.7 MPH
95 Knots = 109.4 MPH
100 Knots = 115.2 MPH
105 Knots = 121.0 MPH
110 Knots = 126.7 MPH
115 Knots = 132.5 MPH
120 Knots = 138.2 MPH
125 Knots = 144.0 MPH
130 Knots = 149.8 MPH
135 Knots = 155.5 MPH
140 Knots = 161.3 MPH
145 Knots = 167.0 MPH
150 Knots = 172.8 MPH

[Buck]

woops... looks like my math was a bit off!

[brunota2003]

646
SXXX50 KNHC 241957
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 31 KNHC
1949. 1334N 06035W 00305 5012 146 020 224 224 021 00303 0000000000
1950 1333N 06036W 00305 5013 145 019 220 220 020 00303 0000000000
1950. 1331N 06037W 00305 5013 145 019 220 220 020 00302 0000000000
1951 1331N 06038W 00304 5014 147 020 226 226 021 00301 0000000000
1951. 1329N 06039W 00306 5015 143 020 226 226 020 00302 0000000000
1952 1328N 06040W 00304 5015 144 020 230 230 022 00299 0000000000
1952. 1327N 06041W 00305 5016 133 019 230 230 020 00300 0000000000
1953 1326N 06043W 00305 5017 133 020 230 230 021 00299 0000000000
1953. 1325N 06044W 00308 5016 134 021 230 230 023 00302 0000000000
1954 1324N 06045W 00303 5016 133 021 226 226 023 00297 0000000000
1954. 1323N 06046W 00306 5017 134 019 226 226 019 00300 0000000000
1955 1322N 06046W 00303 5017 154 022 232 232 024 00297 0000000000
1955. 1320N 06046W 00304 5017 158 022 234 234 023 00298 0000000000
1956 1319N 06047W 00302 5016 156 023 232 232 024 00296 0000000000
1956. 1319N 06049W 00307 5016 152 021 234 234 023 00302 0000000000
1957 1318N 06050W 00305 5016 149 023 232 232 023 00299 0000000000
1957. 1318N 06052W 00304 5017 148 024 234 234 025 00298 0000000000
1958 1317N 06053W 00307 5018 144 024 234 234 025 00299 0000000000
1958. 1316N 06055W 00307 5017 149 023 226 226 025 00301 0000000000
1959 1315N 06056W 00303 5018 155 027 238 236 028 00295 0000000000

[wxman57]

I have a graphic that depicts the typical conversion from FL winds to surface here. From 1000 ft, it's close to a 30% reduction:

[LAwxrgal]

Thanks bunches wxman57 for that information. So the recon's windspeed reduction depends upon the altitude at which it's flying?

[brunota2003]

501
SXXX50 KNHC 242007
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 32 KNHC
1959. 1314N 06057W 00306 5019 155 027 236 234 028 00298 0000000000
2000 1313N 06058W 00305 5019 155 026 236 236 026 00296 0000000000
2000. 1312N 06059W 00305 5019 152 024 236 236 025 00297 0000000000
2001 1311N 06100W 00301 5020 158 025 226 226 027 00292 0000000000
2001. 1310N 06100W 00310 5020 161 025 230 230 026 00300 0000000000
2002 1309N 06101W 00303 5019 167 023 236 236 024 00294 0000000000
2002. 1307N 06101W 00306 5019 164 024 236 236 024 00297 0000000000
2003 1306N 06102W 00305 5019 168 025 236 236 025 00296 0000000000
2003. 1305N 06102W 00305 5020 168 025 236 236 025 00296 0000000000
2004 1303N 06102W 00304 5020 168 028 238 238 028 00295 0000000000
2004. 1302N 06103W 00306 5020 168 026 238 238 027 00297 0000000000
2005 1301N 06103W 00303 5020 168 028 240 236 029 00294 0000000000
2005. 1300N 06103W 00305 5020 169 028 240 234 029 00296 0000000000
2006 1258N 06104W 00305 5020 169 028 240 236 029 00296 0000000000
2006. 1257N 06104W 00305 5020 171 027 238 236 030 00296 0000000000
2007 1256N 06104W 00304 5021 173 029 240 234 030 00294 0000000000
2007. 1254N 06105W 00304 5022 174 029 240 234 030 00293 0000000000
2008 1253N 06105W 00304 5022 173 028 240 234 029 00293 0000000000
2008. 1252N 06106W 00306 5022 172 027 240 234 028 00295 0000000000
2009 1251N 06107W 00304 5021 170 027 242 232 027 00293 0000000000

[brunota2003]

937
SXXX50 KNHC 242017
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 33 KNHC
2009. 1250N 06108W 00305 5022 170 029 242 230 030 00293 0000000000
2010 1250N 06110W 00306 5022 169 031 240 230 032 00294 0000000000
2010. 1250N 06111W 00304 5024 170 031 240 232 032 00291 0000000000
2011 1250N 06113W 00305 5024 170 032 242 230 032 00292 0000000000
2011. 1250N 06115W 00305 5023 168 030 240 234 031 00292 0000000000
2012 1250N 06116W 00304 5023 167 031 242 232 031 00292 0000000000
2012. 1250N 06118W 00306 5023 164 031 242 232 032 00294 0000000000
2013 1250N 06120W 00304 5022 164 030 240 234 031 00293 0000000000
2013. 1250N 06121W 00305 5022 167 029 242 232 030 00293 0000000000
2014 1250N 06123W 00306 5022 165 028 242 230 028 00294 0000000000
2014. 1249N 06124W 00304 5022 166 028 242 230 028 00292 0000000000
2015 1248N 06125W 00305 5023 165 025 240 234 026 00293 0000000000
2015. 1247N 06126W 00305 5023 169 025 240 234 026 00292 0000000000
2016 1247N 06128W 00306 5024 170 023 242 230 025 00293 0000000000
2016. 1246N 06129W 00305 5024 170 024 242 234 025 00291 0000000000
2017 1246N 06131W 00305 5025 169 025 240 234 027 00290 0000000000
2017. 1245N 06132W 00304 5026 170 027 240 234 027 00289 0000000000
2018 1245N 06133W 00305 5026 169 028 240 232 028 00289 0000000000
2018. 1244N 06135W 00305 5027 167 025 240 236 026 00289 0000000000
2019 1244N 06136W 00305 5028 169 023 240 234 024 00288 0000000000

[brunota2003]

674
SXXX50 KNHC 242027
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 34 KNHC
2019. 1243N 06138W 00304 5028 167 020 240 238 021 00287 0000000000
2020 1242N 06139W 00304 5029 167 022 240 236 022 00285 0000000000
2020. 1242N 06141W 00306 5030 168 024 240 234 025 00287 0000000000
2021 1242N 06142W 00304 5030 169 026 240 232 027 00285 0000000000
2021. 1242N 06144W 00306 5029 170 025 238 236 027 00287 0000000000
2022 1241N 06145W 00305 5030 168 027 242 230 027 00286 0000000000
2022. 1241N 06147W 00304 5030 169 027 242 226 028 00285 0000000000
2023 1241N 06149W 00305 5031 169 027 246 218 027 00285 0000000000
2023. 1240N 06150W 00305 5030 164 023 240 232 025 00285 0000000000
2024 1240N 06152W 00305 5029 170 021 236 236 021 00286 0000000000
2024. 1239N 06153W 00305 5030 174 021 236 236 021 00286 0000000000
2025 1239N 06155W 00305 5030 185 018 238 238 020 00286 0000000000
2025. 1239N 06156W 00304 5031 190 019 238 236 019 00283 0000000000
2026 1238N 06157W 00305 5031 192 019 242 230 019 00285 0000000000
2026. 1239N 06159W 00305 5031 191 020 236 236 021 00284 0000000000
2027 1239N 06201W 00306 5031 195 018 230 230 021 00285 0000000000
2027. 1239N 06202W 00305 5032 196 017 240 240 018 00283 0000000000
2028 1239N 06204W 00305 5033 199 017 240 240 017 00282 0000000000
2028. 1240N 06205W 00304 5035 202 014 244 240 015 00279 0000000000
2029 1240N 06207W 00306 5036 206 013 244 244 014 00281 0000000000

[dwg71]

Based on Recon, its definately NOT getting a name at this advisory.

[brunota2003]

966
SXXX50 KNHC 242037
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 35 KNHC
2029. 1241N 06208W 00303 5037 207 014 246 246 015 00277 0000000000
2030 1241N 06210W 00305 5038 212 015 246 244 015 00278 0000000000
2030. 1242N 06211W 00303 5038 216 015 244 242 015 00275 0000000000
2031 1243N 06212W 00307 5039 205 014 242 242 014 00279 0000000000
2031. 1244N 06213W 00305 5040 191 015 242 242 016 00276 0000000000
2032 1245N 06215W 00306 5040 161 012 244 244 015 00276 0000000000
2032. 1246N 06216W 00299 5039 010 002 222 222 005 00270 0000000000
2033 1247N 06217W 00311 5038 124 008 224 224 009 00283 0000000000
2033. 1248N 06219W 00301 5040 076 007 244 244 007 00272 0000000000
2034 1249N 06220W 00305 5041 043 008 250 246 009 00274 0000000000
2034. 1250N 06221W 00304 5043 018 009 256 242 011 00272 0000000000
2035 1251N 06222W 00305 5043 021 014 244 244 016 00272 0000000000
2035. 1252N 06223W 00305 5044 026 016 236 236 017 00272 0000000000
2036 1253N 06224W 00304 5045 027 018 236 236 018 00270 0000000000
2036. 1254N 06225W 00305 5045 026 019 236 236 022 00271 0000000000
2037 1255N 06226W 00304 5045 032 026 234 234 027 00270 0000000000
2037. 1256N 06227W 00307 5044 033 028 232 232 030 00274 0000000000
2038 1257N 06228W 00304 5044 035 029 236 236 031 00271 0000000000
2038. 1258N 06229W 00304 5043 031 033 236 236 034 00272 0000000000
2039 1300N 06230W 00304 5042 034 031 232 232 031 00273 0000000000

[cycloneye]

A VDM is comming.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM AST THU AUG 24 2006

...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THOUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...RAIN BANDS TRAILING THE CENTER WILL BE AFFECTING
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AS
WELL AS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...12.9 N...62.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WORKED LONG AND HARD THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLOSE OFF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND FOUND ENOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AIRCRAFT
JUST PASSED THROUGH THE CENTER AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 39 KT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 30 KT AT THE SURFACE.
ALTHOUGH BARBADOS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DIRECTION OF THOSE WINDS SUGGESTED A CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW OR DOWNBURST NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION.
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IN THE BANDS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
INDICATE WINDS THERE ARE ALSO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WITH
THE CENTER ALREADY IN THE CARIBBEAN AND NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...NO WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED. HOWEVER...
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/19. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING A
WESTWARD STEERING FLOW...AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY IN
PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OTHER KEY PLAYER IS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THIS TROUGH WILL BE PROVIDING BOTH
WESTERLY SHEAR AND AND A NORTHWARD STEERING COMPONENT. THE GFDL
RESPONDS TO THIS BY GRADUALLY LIFTING THE TRACK AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FOR THE
MOST PART FARTHER SOUTH AND KEEP THE SYSTEM WEAKER IN RESPONSE TO
THE SHEAR. I AM REMINDED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS CORRECTLY FORECAST
THE DISSIPATION OF CHRIS A WHILE BACK...AND THE GFDL DOESN'T ALWAYS
HANDLE SHEAR WELL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
OPTION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS SOME
WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LOW AND IF THIS OCCURS
WOULD RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GFS FIELDS...RESPONDS TO
THIS AND TAKES THE CYCLONE UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60 HOURS.
THE GFDL INTENSITIES ARE LOWER...BUT THIS RESULTS FROM A GFDL TRACK
WHICH IS OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE WITH THE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 12.9N 62.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 13.2N 65.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 13.8N 68.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 14.6N 70.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 15.5N 72.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.0N 76.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 18.5N 80.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 20.5N 85.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Windsurfer_NYC]

444
URNT12 KNHC 242050
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/20:32:00Z
B. 12 deg 46 min N
062 deg 16 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 35 kt
E. 62 deg 136 nm
F. 109 deg 039 kt
G. 062 deg 143 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 21 C/ 303 m
J. 25 C/ 305 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF303 01GGA INVEST OB 19
MAX FL WIND 39 KT NE QUAD 19:37:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[brunota2003]

sorry...had computer problems:
444
URNT12 KNHC 242050
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/20:32:00Z
B. 12 deg 46 min N
062 deg 16 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 35 kt
E. 62 deg 136 nm
F. 109 deg 039 kt
G. 062 deg 143 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 21 C/ 303 m
J. 25 C/ 305 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF303 01GGA INVEST OB 19
MAX FL WIND 39 KT NE QUAD 19:37:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

235
SXXX50 KNHC 242047
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 36 KNHC
2039. 1301N 06232W 00306 5041 037 033 230 230 034 00276 0000000000
2040 1302N 06233W 00304 5039 039 033 232 226 035 00275 0000000000
2040. 1303N 06234W 00305 5038 045 032 230 230 032 00277 0000000000
2041 1304N 06235W 00304 5037 049 033 236 214 034 00278 0000000000
2041. 1305N 06236W 00305 5037 052 032 236 218 033 00279 0000000000
2042 1306N 06237W 00306 5037 057 033 236 216 034 00279 0000000000
2042. 1307N 06238W 00303 5037 062 034 236 220 034 00277 0000000000
2043 1308N 06239W 00306 5035 064 033 232 226 034 00281 0000000000
2043. 1310N 06241W 00304 5035 065 034 234 224 034 00280 0000000000
2044 1311N 06242W 00305 5034 066 034 230 222 034 00282 0000000000
2044. 1312N 06243W 00305 5032 065 033 230 230 033 00283 0000000000
2045 1313N 06244W 00305 5031 060 034 238 226 035 00284 0000000000
2045. 1314N 06245W 00305 5031 059 036 238 234 037 00284 0000000000
2046 1315N 06246W 00305 5030 065 034 234 234 034 00286 0000000000
2046. 1316N 06248W 00305 5029 068 034 234 234 035 00287 0000000000
2047 1318N 06249W 00304 5029 065 033 240 240 034 00286 0000000000
2047. 1319N 06250W 00305 5028 064 032 240 240 033 00288 0000000000
2048 1320N 06251W 00306 5027 062 034 240 240 035 00289 0000000000
2048. 1321N 06252W 00304 5026 059 035 240 240 036 00288 0000000000
2049 1322N 06253W 00305 5026 060 035 240 240 035 00290 0000000000

[Windsurfer_NYC]

444
URNT12 KNHC 242050
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/20:32:00Z
B. 12 deg 46 min N
062 deg 16 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 35 kt
E. 62 deg 136 nm
F. 109 deg 039 kt
G. 062 deg 143 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 21 C/ 303 m
J. 25 C/ 305 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF303 01GGA INVEST OB 19
MAX FL WIND 39 KT NE QUAD 19:37:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[drezee]

Storm INVEST: Observed By AF #303
Storm #GG in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 39KT (44.9mph 72.2km/h) In NE Quadrant At 19:37:50 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 35.1KT (40.4mph 65.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks: LP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Thursday, August 24, 2006 4:32:00 PM (Thu, 24 Aug 2006 20:32:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 12° 46' N 062° 16' W (12.8°N 62.3°W) [See Map]

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 35 KT (40.25MPH 64.8km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 136nm (156.4miles) From Center At Bearing 62°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 039KT (44.85mph 72.2km/h) From 109°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 143nm (164.5 miles) From Center At Bearing 062°
Minimum pressure: 1007mb (29.74in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500ft
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.03nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow a hurricane later in the forecast.

[rnbaida]

dont we have a Tropical storm???

[cycloneye]

[jhamps10]

VDM shows 35 KT surface winds, kinda makes me wonder why they had it at a 35 MPH TD? Maybe they had everything wrote up before the vdm.