Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[SouthFloridawx]

has anyone seen the latest bam models shifting to the west?

Yes but, mets don't think these are good models in this situation.

[flhurricaneguy]

has anyone seen the latest bam models shifting to the west?

Yes but, mets don't think these are good models in this situation.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_08.gif

oh, well which ones are?


*edited by staff to make the image a link - had to scroll to read each line on the page
*please don't quote images when replying - shorten them to the link...thanks

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/avn.jpg

In this image of the whole Atlantic you can see that TD 8 doubles Gordon in size.


*edited by staff to make the image a link

[SouthFloridawx]

I am starting to think that TD/Helene is going to affect the Islands. If you look at that picture above you can see the large ridge behind the trough in the east.



The models have yet again underdone the ridge that is developing on top of TD8 and will certainly underdo the ridge behind the EC trough. This could be a potentially dangerous situtation for the Islands.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I am starting to think that TD/Helene is going to affect the Islands. If you look at that picture above you can see the large ridge behind the trough in the east.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_018s.gif

The models have yet again underdone the ridge that is developing on top of TD8 and will certainly underdo the ridge behind the EC trough. This could be a potentially dangerous situtation for the Islands.

Im seeing what your seeing...ant its not an instant recurve..


*edited by staff to make the image a link - had to scroll to read each line on the page
*please don't quote images when replying - shorten them to the link...thanks

[x-y-no]

12Z run of the GFS is out to 54 hours so far ...

It's still insisting on stalling Gordon - actually tracking him eastward between 36 and 54 hours. Weirdly, it seems to be trying to build the mid-level ridging under him but at the same time take TD-8 towards the weakness he's holding open.

I'm getting more and more skeptical of this scenario. I think Gordon tracks NNE today and NE tomorrow and doesn't slow down a whole lot.

[tgenius]

So its looking to be west bound and not recurve? I'm not liking the sound of that, added to the shear size of this thing!

[Thunder44]

Floater 3 is on the disturbance. You have go to the SSD page to get to this one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

yes, great analysis SouthFloridaWx - I have been thinking this thing is a westrunner the whole time.

Curious that the latest NHC guidance has shifted left some - could be a trend.

[x-y-no]

So its looking to be west bound and not recurve? I'm not liking the sound of that, added to the shear size of this thing!

I posted about a long-runner scenario yesterday afternoon. Basically, there's mid-level ridging forecast both to the east of Gordon (north of TD-8) and also southwest of Gordon. The GFS is consistant in stalling Gordon around 30N 55W (or tracking him eastward along 30N) which holds a weakness open between those two ridges. If instead Gordon continues to track NNE then NE, those ridges can merge and hold TD-8 on a westward course.

The 54 hour frame of the 12ZGFS 500mb heights shows what I'm talking about. There's ridging centered SW of Gordon, NE of the leeward islands. Notably, this ridging is elongated much more eastward than it was in yesterday's runs, so the trend is (as is so often the case with the GFS) the ridging being stronger than the midrange forecast indicated.

I wouldn't bet the farm on this happening, but I think the probability is going up.

[skufful]

yes, great analysis SouthFloridaWx - I have been thinking this thing is a westrunner the whole time.

Curious that the latest NHC guidance has shifted left some - could be a trend.

"Posted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 4:59 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

looks to be going fishing yet again.....

I'm fairly confident it will actually"

Gatorcane, don't toot your own horn yet, for one, it still may fish, two, you have not called it a westrunner the whole time.

[gatorcane]

yes, great analysis SouthFloridaWx - I have been thinking this thing is a westrunner the whole time.

Curious that the latest NHC guidance has shifted left some - could be a trend.

"Posted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 4:59 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

looks to be going fishing yet again.....

I'm fairly confident it will actually"

Gatorcane, don't toot your own horn yet, for one, it still may fish, two, you have not called it a westrunner the whole time.

I say a westrunner fish. Now there is an oxymoron

[Floodo_Is_My_Hero]

I am very new to this but my heart is in the right place. I was looking into model tracks and came upon this. Seems interesting how many have made landfall coming from close to where TD8 is.

[SouthFloridawx]

Welcome to the Board .

[Thatsmrhurricane]

It's a tie in that history.

However, if what others, sorry for not having names, are saying about weather teleconnecting, then would not the fact that the WPAC now has predicted land falling typhoons, correlate to mean we will have a synoptic change in the Atl. soon?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

15W is in to China. Shanshan looks to go into S japan.

[CrazyC83]

I never bought into the recurving anyway. Every time, my prediction was (and still is) for a fairly straight course.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2006 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 12:01:19 N Lon : 28:54:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.6 2.9 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -18.8C Cloud Region Temp : -32.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.62 ARC in DK GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[CrazyC83]

The thing that she has going for her the most: time. She will have all the time in the world practically to strengthen into a significant (and possibly a monster) storm.

[Floodo_Is_My_Hero]

Welcome to the Board .

Thank you for the welcome!

[Sanibel]

Dry, dry, dry.


2006.

[wxman57]

I think the center may be reforming closer to 13N/29.5-30W. Still looks more likely to recurve than to head west, regardless of its intensity.