Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[CHRISTY]

That is why I say those professional mets are being conservative, there is no way a monster with an eye like that is still a Cat-2. Those people make me mad.

And what scientific basis do you have to mkae that statement? Please let allof the pro mets know what it is we're doing wrong, in a scientific manner. Thanks

Derek chanchu is a monster!doesn't she look somewhat like monica!incredible CDO!

[Normandy]

In my opinion that looks like its soon to be approaching super typhoon status. Thats just going off sat presentation (which imo is pretty impressive).

[HURAKAN]

The only word that could describe Chanchu at this moment is: MONSTER!

[HURAKAN]

14/1433 UTC 13.9N 115.4E T6.0/6.0 CHANCHU -- West Pacific Ocean

DVORAK AGREES WITH THE JTWC, 115 KNOTS.

[stormtruth]

That is why I say those professional mets are being conservative, there is no way a monster with an eye like that is still a Cat-2. Those people make me mad.

And what scientific basis do you have to mkae that statement? Please let allof the pro mets know what it is we're doing wrong, in a scientific manner. Thanks

Why are you saying that when you yourself said it is a strong Cat 3?

now we have an organized typhoon, likely about 110KT

Arguing against yourself is a sure sign of lunacy.

[HURAKAN]

THE MONSTER CONTINUES TO ROAR! 130 KNOTS.

[Derek Ortt]

It is a cat 3, and JT is again overstating the intensity by saying super typhoon. I can understand the official estimates of a 2 though. They are only about .5 T numbers lower than I am, within the noise factor.

JT is again showing their high bias. This has the signature of a cat 3. It also does not look like Monica. Monica had a clear eye, where one could see the sea surface on satellite

Still expect this to peak as a LEGIT 4, and weaken to a 1 or a 2 before landfall

[milankovitch]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

A solid eye wall developed in the last 8-10 hours ago.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... r-bd11.GIF

The eye still hasn't start to clear out yet so a solid 3 seems reasonable. This is not a Monica if it was the eye would appear circular on IR, which it is not. The IR representation is impressive but its not "OMG!! impressive" some people on this board need to RELAX!

EDIT: JTWC is now saying 130 knots - 910 mb. While I don't think it is that high if they were interpreting the latest IR as a pinhole eye I could see where they could get this. I wish I had a current MIMIC to look at because within the last 5 hours its "conceivable" that the eye could have gotten much tighter and much more solid. This could be one of those cases where the storm is very rapidy intensifying and still pretty small but is much stronger than it looks. Again I would have to see a current 85ghz image to tell.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... r-nh11.GIF

[Scorpion]

I would say 115 kts at most.

[benny]

We have seen in the Atlantic several times where the satellite signature would lead the actual intensity of the storm as determined by recon. JT seems to get one satellite pictures with a change in intensity upward and really jumps on that trend. I agree with Derek that they seem to be high in general in my book. Satellite is starting to show the strong trend for more than a couple hours now.. so the 6.5 classification of the ADTs seems reasonable I have no problem calling this a Cat 4 now... but as of 11 AM pretty questionable.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/02W-list.txt

[CHRISTY]

Continues to look very impressive! :eek:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow the last storm I seen with a soild block convection around its eye was Wilma...125 to 130 knots I say.

[JonathanBelles]

how wide is that eye?

[CHRISTY]

We are in a new era of intence tropical systems worldwide! hopefully this wont carry on into the atlantic basin....think about it guys how many CAT 4 AND 5'S have we seen in 2006 already?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When this clears out then this thing will look ever bit as bad as Rita.

[cheezyWXguy]

probably about 15 miles wide

[Theo]

THE MONSTER CONTINUES TO ROAR! 130 KNOTS.

Yes, and the Moon is nearing Maximum South Declination. This raises the atmospheric tide and with Moon in perigee cycle, the typhoon will intensify for certain. This is a very dangerous one. Check out the spiral symmetry and vortex rotation, with low shear. Can easily become a "super typhoon" by the time Moon reaches maximum declination early Tuesday into Wednesday.

Sunday, May 14 - Moon transits Sagittarius - Lunar Max. Decl. 25oS17'
*Monday, May 15 - Moon/Sagittarius - Lunar Max. 27oS41'
*Tues., May 16 - Moon enters Capricorn - Lunar Max. 28oS32'
*Wed., May 17 - Moon/Capricorn - Lunar Max. 27oS39'
*Thurs., May 18 - Moon enters Aquarius - Lunar Max. 25oS04'
*Fri., May 19 - Moon/Aquarius - Lunar Max. - 20oS58'

[Brandon007]

is this thing still on track for Hong Kong? also is it stil projected to weaken before landfall?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

329
TPPN10 KGWC 141810
A. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU)
B. 14/1731Z (37)
C. 13.7N/1
D. 115.4E/1
E. TWO/MTSAT
F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS/STT: D2.0/12HRS -14/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR

05A/ PBO 14NM CLOUD FILLED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE LOCATED
42NM INTO THE CMG, YIELDING A DT OF 6.5. FT BASED ON DT,
PT AGREES. MET YIELDED UNREP 6.0. DUE TO RAPID
DEVELOPEMENT, CONSTRAINTS BROKEN.

AODT: T6.3 (OBSCURED EYE)

HEATH/LUDOVISSIE




130
TPPN10 PGTW 141815
A. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU)
B. 14/1730Z
C. 13.9N/3
D. 115.3E/0
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (14/1730Z)
G. IR/EIR LLCC
05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 15NM LG EYE SURROUNDED BY A
30NM CDG RING YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. DBO DT. PT SUPPORTS.
MET IS UNREP OF 6.0 DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. EYE IS
SMALL AND STILL A BIT CLOUD FILLED. AODT: 6.2.

JAYKOSKI

[SouthFloridawx]