Tropical Storm Beryl

[HURAKAN]

Convection now covers the center of circulation, nevertheless, it's very shallow which is normal for these systems from non-tropical origins.

[cycloneye]

Plan of the day

Above is the plan of the day for tommorow and for early friday when the last mission will go.

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=141

[wxman57]

Here's a new GARP image with surface plots. Looks a bit better organized, but I'd suggest taking a look at the WV loop. Strong jet core is racing ESE toward Beryl from the Ohio Valley. Won't be long before there are very strong WNW winds aloft reaching the east U.S. Coast.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl6.gif

[JamesFromMaine2]

Alot of 60kt winds on the latest windsat lets see if recon finds them at the surface!

[skysummit]

She's looking really good now with thunderstorms going off all around the center. She's impressing me!

[AnnularCane]

I was starting to think she was going to be downgraded, and look at her now! She's a fiesty little thing.

[shaggy]

shes getting back over the gulfstream so she will get some new strong convection firing but the GS isn't as wide up there so she shouldn't get to strong!

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

I think the intensity is going to be a bit less than the NHC says, but the track moves it closer to New England and square into Atlantic Canada just after becoming extratropical.



Current - 35.6/73.7 - 1005mb - 45mph
12 hrs - 36.7/73.5 - 1004mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 38.1/73.0 - 1002mb - 50mph
36 hrs - 39.5/72.4 - 1001mb - 50mph
48 hrs - 41.3/70.3 - 999mb - 45mph - Near Cape Cod
60 hrs - 43.2/68.5 - 999mb - 45mph - Becoming extratropical
72 hrs - 45.0/65.3 - 992mb - 45mph - Inland extratropical
96 hrs - 47.1/62.2 - 985mb - 40mph - Inland extratropical
120 hrs - merged with extratropical low

[wxman57]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

I think the intensity is going to be a bit less than the NHC says, but the track moves it closer to New England and square into Atlantic Canada just after becoming extratropical.



Current - 35.6/73.7 - 1005mb - 45mph
12 hrs - 36.7/73.5 - 1004mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 38.1/73.0 - 1002mb - 50mph
36 hrs - 39.5/72.4 - 1001mb - 50mph
48 hrs - 41.3/70.3 - 999mb - 45mph - Near Cape Cod
60 hrs - 43.2/68.5 - 999mb - 45mph - Becoming extratropical
72 hrs - 45.0/65.3 - 992mb - 45mph - Inland extratropical
96 hrs - 47.1/62.2 - 985mb - 40mph - Inland extratropical
120 hrs - merged with extratropical low

I wouldn't disagree with that forecast. Beryl should begin to suffer increasing shear by this afternoon with that jet max moving in from the west.

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't disagree with that forecast. Beryl should begin to suffer increasing shear by this afternoon with that jet max moving in from the west.

I was also thinking more cooler water would prevent any real strengthening. The slight increases in pressure is due to gaining some extratropical characteristics. (That track is west of the NHC's track, and my predicted intensity is lower than theirs as a result)

[drezee]

An eyewall is almost looking to develop on radar. I am very interested to see what RECON finds. It may be a borderline (dare I say it) hurricane by the time they get there.

[CrazyC83]

I figure if Beryl is going to intensify, it will have to be in the next 12-24 hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Recon should be in there soon. I say 55 knots...

[cheezyWXguy]

ya...I might guess that at the rate of improvement I wouldnt be surprised to see a peak at 60mph and a landfall on eastern Long Island at 50-55mph then racing over cape cod and newfoundland

[CrazyC83]

I think 45 knots. That doesn't look like an eyewall to me.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm very interested in what interaction will occur between Beryl, and the frontal zone to her West by the Weekend. If a phase occurs could be a decent storm around these parts.

[Thunder44]

An eyewall is almost looking to develop on radar. I am very interested to see what RECON finds. It may be a borderline (dare I say it) hurricane by the time they get there.

Really hard to tell from looking out that range.

[Epsilon_Fan]

wow, Beryl is making a comeback... I was ready to write the thing off last night!

[Extremeweatherguy]

This could end up being a real problem for southern New England.