Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

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HURAKAN
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#621 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 14, 2006 2:56 pm

HONG KONG OBSERVATORY:

Image

The track has shifted closer to the city of Hong Kong. As I said before, they should start preparing for the worse even though it's still uncertain how close it will hit. Nevertheless, for such a large city, prepations should start with time on their side.
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#622 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun May 14, 2006 3:00 pm

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#623 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun May 14, 2006 3:04 pm

have they started evacuations? and i know everyone is talking about hong kong, why is macau being silently talked about?
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#624 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 14, 2006 3:06 pm

Hong kong has 7 million people. Even a low in cat3 could do alot of damage like 50 or 60 billion worth.
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#625 Postby Brandon007 » Sun May 14, 2006 3:10 pm

so this thing could actually have 120-130mph winds at landfall? what is the forcast intensity/impact on hong kong? also does anyone know the population there?
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#626 Postby Brandon007 » Sun May 14, 2006 3:11 pm

does anyone have one of those projected path maps?
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#627 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 14, 2006 3:16 pm

Almost time to change the title to Super Typhoon Chanchu!
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#628 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun May 14, 2006 3:16 pm

when was the last non-major hurricane/cyclone/typhoon?
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#629 Postby stormtruth » Sun May 14, 2006 3:17 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Hong kong has 7 million people. Even a low in cat3 could do alot of damage like 50 or 60 billion worth.


that's depressing :( we are now seeing these menacing monster storms all over the globe: us, australia, asia, etc.
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#630 Postby Theo » Sun May 14, 2006 3:20 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Hong kong has 7 million people. Even a low in cat3 could do alot of damage like 50 or 60 billion worth.


Hong Kong is a very crowded, congested city. Lots of problems with this typhoon hitting there. Not a good situation at all. Major weather news week just ahead. Flooding all over the place, including here in the states.
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#631 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun May 14, 2006 3:28 pm

Hong Kong should be evacuated by now even though Chanchu hasn't made landfall yet Hong kong has been the target for several days and that should be a sogn saying avoid death by leaving the death zone.
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#632 Postby milankovitch » Sun May 14, 2006 3:31 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html
MIMIC - only 45 min ago at the end

Now I can see why JTWC went to 130 knots Chanchu has a very intense circular eye wall (see MIMIC) and is defintetly rapidy intensifying. Shear is still pretty low so I see this storm becoming a cat 5. However, Chancu is going to hit some cool water and high shear before landfall.


This is 2:30 hours old
Image
Last edited by milankovitch on Sun May 14, 2006 3:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#633 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 14, 2006 3:32 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.8N 115.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 115.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.9N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.0N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.7N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.7N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.9N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.6N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 115.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.//

NNNN



130 knots=150 mph is that not super typhoon?
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#634 Postby lester » Sun May 14, 2006 3:33 pm

Brandon007 wrote:does anyone have one of those projected path maps?

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/0601.html
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#635 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun May 14, 2006 3:33 pm

2nd link doesnt work
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#636 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun May 14, 2006 3:33 pm

Yeah but I think we are going with PAGASA and that other forecaster. They'll probably say Chanchu is at 95 kts.
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#637 Postby Brandon007 » Sun May 14, 2006 3:35 pm

holy cow we could see this thing making landfall at 150mph?? this could be very bad for hong kong
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#638 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 14, 2006 3:35 pm

If this is 95 knots then I'm a monkey playing on the computer. I agree with JTWC in expect this to become a cat5.

:roll:
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#639 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun May 14, 2006 3:36 pm

It will weaken probably to 130-140 mph by the time it gets to Hong Kong but that is still a very strong typhoon.
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#640 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun May 14, 2006 3:38 pm

ya the thing's probably like 145mph right now
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