Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its 150 mph right now...

[cheezyWXguy]

whoa...

[HurricaneHunter914]

And "The Pearl" which is what Chanchu means is going to get stronger. I hope PAGASA gets its facts straight and realizes that this is no longer a Low-End Cat-3.

[lester]

Its 150 mph right now...

[Derek Ortt]

I think I can guarantee an EWRC within the next 24 hours based upon the shape of the rainbands... very similar to those of Rita, which I have been doing research on and presented at Monterrey

This will not maintain super status until landfall, <1% chance

[Theo]

Hong Kong should be evacuated by now even though Chanchu hasn't made landfall yet Hong kong has been the target for several days and that should be a sogn saying avoid death by leaving the death zone.

I agree. All this waiting until the last minute is like playing Russian Roulette with the lives of millions. Hong Kong is cramped, very cramped, tight structures. There's going to be lots of debris flying around in the city's close quarters. After Katrina, you'd think other nations would be more on their toes after last year's record season. I don't like the looks of this typhoon at all. See how perfect the thing looks? It sure wants to land somewhere. I'd be gone already - as far inland as I could get.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... r-nh11.GIF

Chanchu is probably going through an EWRC right now.

[Theo]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/westpac/storm/dvor-nh11.GIF

Chanchu is probably going through an EWRC right now.

Man, that looks nasty. A real monster. What has been its averaged wind speed today?

[cheezyWXguy]

ya...it looks like theres a double eyewall in there...theres a line that has the brightest white in the CDO thats a complete circle

EDIT: nvm I was looking at a previous radar...forget what i said above

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I see no EWRC yet. Just a clouded eye. Could clear out?

[Jam151]

Hong Kong should be evacuated by now even though Chanchu hasn't made landfall yet Hong kong has been the target for several days and that should be a sogn saying avoid death by leaving the death zone.

I agree. All this waiting until the last minute is like playing Russian Roulette with the lives of millions. Hong Kong is cramped, very cramped, tight structures. There's going to be lots of debris flying around in the city's close quarters. After Katrina, you'd think other nations would be more on their toes after last year's record season. I don't like the looks of this typhoon at all. See how perfect the thing looks? It sure wants to land somewhere. I'd be gone already - as far inland as I could get.

You can't evacuate a city with 7 million people....and that's not accounting for the total number in the metro area.

[cheezyWXguy]

good news for hong kong...the latest forecast has it a cat 2 over hong kong in 3 days instead of a cat 4 like before

[Theo]

Hong Kong should be evacuated by now even though Chanchu hasn't made landfall yet Hong kong has been the target for several days and that should be a sogn saying avoid death by leaving the death zone.

I agree. All this waiting until the last minute is like playing Russian Roulette with the lives of millions. Hong Kong is cramped, very cramped, tight structures. There's going to be lots of debris flying around in the city's close quarters. After Katrina, you'd think other nations would be more on their toes after last year's record season. I don't like the looks of this typhoon at all. See how perfect the thing looks? It sure wants to land somewhere. I'd be gone already - as far inland as I could get.

You can't evacuate a city with 7 million people....and that's not accounting for the total number in the metro area.

Well, somebody out of that 7 million had better think about evacuations, just in case... This thing could just as easily turn into a super typhoon - and these things don't respect populations, property, or habitats. They destroy them.

[Windspeed]

I think I can guarantee an EWRC within the next 24 hours based upon the shape of the rainbands... very similar to those of Rita, which I have been doing research on and presented at Monterrey

This will not maintain super status until landfall, <1% chance

Agreed, the storm is about 2-1/2 to 3 days out for landfall. It will be in a very favorable environment during the next 24 hours to bottom out. Outter banding features will consolidate and form another wind maxima that should begin to starve the smaller eyewall by 15/12z to 16/00z. Should the new larger eyewall, at that time, still experience a favorable enough environment to re-intensify or at least maintain the storms intensity, we are probably looking at a Cat 3-4 storm at landfall--similiar to Rita and Katrina--and still an extremely dangerous and potentially catastrophic situation.

[HurricaneHunter914]

good news for hong kong...the latest forecast has it a cat 2 over hong kong in 3 days instead of a cat 4 like before

A cat-2 is still strong enough to cause Katrina-like damage and that forecast could change over time so wait and see.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow this thread is almost at page 7 already.

[curtadams]

Hong Kong is relatively hurricane-resistant. It's basically built on mountains so flooding and surge are very manageable, and it's wealthy so most buildings will be well-built. The problem would be all that highrise glass in a major wind event, but that's best handled with local evac to safer structures. Chanchu would be most dangerous if it veered left and put its right front quadrant up the Pearl River delta, which is densely inhabited and much more susceptible to flooding.

In addition to HK's size, the comparatively poor development in its hinterland - which is China, remember, HK's just a citystate - makes a general evac of HK essentially impossible.

[curtadams]

Wow this thread is almost at page 7 already.

Well, it's an overnight supertyphoon threatening one of the world's great cities. Compared to some discussions of borderline TD's suggested by 2-week forward computer models the board's downright reticent.

[CHRISTY]

[CHRISTY]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 922.4mb/127.0kt